Healthcare

Illumina, a leading genomic sequencing company, reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a slight revenue increase of 1% year-over-year to $1.1 billion.
This growth was primarily driven by high throughput sequencing consumables as the company continues to shift its customer base towards its new NovaSeq X series of instruments.
The company placed 91 NovaSeq X instruments in the quarter, reaching an installed base of 630, and enjoyed a robust pull-through performance, averaging $1.3 million per system in 2024.

Peptidream (4587 JP): 2024 Result Beats Guidance; Positive Outlook for 2025

Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) reported better-than-expected 2024 result, with all key parameters beating upwardly revised guidance. Both revenue and net profit hit record high.
Larger than anticipated upfront associated with the expanded Novartis collaboration and increased milestone revenue contributed to the stellar performance of 2024.
The company expects 2025 revenue to increase 5% YoY to ¥49B. Both core operating and operating profits are expected to increase 2% YoY and net profit by 1%.

Mettler-Toledo: A Tale Of Geographic Expansion & Market Penetration To Sustain Its Growth Trajectory!

Mettler-Toledo International, Inc. recently concluded its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, where they reported a robust quarter, marked by solid financial performance and operational execution.
The company noted strong customer demand for its Laboratory products, particularly in Europe, which, alongside effective margin improvement initiatives, resulted in commendable adjusted EPS and cash flow.
Despite challenging market conditions, Mettler-Toledo succeeded in delivering positive financial outcomes and continues to focus on long-term growth strategies like innovation and market leadership extension.

Zimmer Biomet: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

Zimmer Biomet reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, reflecting a complex but strategically advancing fiscal year.
The company achieved a constant currency revenue growth of nearly 5%, marking its twelfth consecutive quarter of at least mid-single-digit growth.
This robust performance, despite challenges like ERP implementation setbacks, underscores Zimmer Biomet’s resilience amidst a volatile market landscape.

LH US – Labcorp Holdings: Is Its Stronghold in Diagnostics Under Threat?

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (LabCorp) presented a mixed but generally positive financial report in their latest call, providing signals for investors to weigh both an optimistic outlook and some ongoing challenges.
LabCorp’s performance in 2024 was highlighted by a 10% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, totaling $3.3 billion for the fourth quarter alone.
Their Diagnostics and Biopharma Laboratory Services segments each demonstrated a commendable 10% growth.

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Feb 16

Daily Brief Health Care: Japan Eyewear Holdings , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma, Otsuka Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF
China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff
Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF

By Travis Lundy

On Friday after the close, Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) made a short announcement that it would cancel its equity offering and TSE Prime application announced 10 Feb, discussed here.
I had suggested that the offering price, or a large dip would be a buy. I rescind that recommendation immediately.
The reason for the cancellation? “Matters that need to be confirmed in relation to our internal control system have been discovered and that will take time.”

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff

In our view, China’s biotech companies have sold their core pipelines/products too early, resulting in the loss of opportunities to gain much greater benefits in the future.
We summarized the impact of tariff policy implemented by the US on China’s healthcare industry. Short-term headwinds are inevitable, but in long term, it helps force the industry to upgrade.
After Spring Festival, the acquisition progress of Tasly by CR Sanjiu has significantly accelerated – SASAC/SAMR approvals have been received. It’s possible for the deal to be completed in 25Q1.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

For 2025, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) is looking for 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥2,380B. However, net profit is expected to decline 20% YoY to ¥275B.
Even upon a massive impact from LoE of Jinarc/Jynarque, total revenue will grow in 2025. Excluding one-time of impact of the tax adjustments, 2025 net profit guidance implies 6% growth.
Otsuka intends to reduce buyback to create a more investable environment, encourage individual investors to participate in the market, and revitalize the stock market.

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Feb 15

Daily Brief Health Care: Healius , Aardvark Therapeutics, Lupin Ltd, JTEC Corp/Osaka, GENOVA , Iqvia Holdings, Kalbe Farma, Becton Dickinson and Co, Sage Therapeutics, Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red
Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue
JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision
GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
IQVIA Holdings: Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Is a Significant Needle Mover!
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery
Becton Dickinson: 85% Recurring Revenue—Is This Stock an Untouchable Healthcare Powerhouse?
Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential
AstraZeneca: A Tale Of Oncology, Rare Diseases & Big Acquisitions!

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

By David Blennerhassett

Reportedly, Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) and Healius (HLS AU) may reload a merger.
The 2023 merger of the second and third-largest pathology plays was blocked by the ACCC. Any follow-up merger will similarly be blocked unless the combined entity jettisons certain ops.
Since the collapse of the merger, Healius has sold its diagnostic business; Crescent Capital has exited ACL; and Capitol Health (CAJ AU) and Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU) merged.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red

Aardvark Therapeutics priced a full size deal of 5.88mm shares at the low end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $15.18 for a loss of 5.1% at first trade.
The volume on day one was just 1.7 million shares or less than 30% of the float.
As the company progresses through its trials and more readouts and data becomes available, this biotech may find a better footing.

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Differentiated Portfolio Drives Solid Q3FY25 Performance; Momentum to Continue

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) has reported solid set of numbers for Q3FY23, with revenue increasing 11% YoY, EBITDA growing 32% YoY, and net profit improving 39% YoY.
North America revenue increased 12% YoY and 8% QoQ to record high of INR21B. Strong momentum in complex portfolio and continued cost optimization are driving consistent profitable growth in U.S.
Complex generics are expected to contribute 50%+ of revenue in the next couple of years. This calls for accelerated growth and better margin.

JTEC Corp (3446 JP) – Reaffirming Long-Term Vision

By Astris Advisory Japan

Q1-2 FY6/25 results showed the core Optical business experienced sales growth and generated segmental profits, which was positive.
Focusing on developing the Life Science & Equipment segment involving upfront investment resulted in flattish operating losses YoY overall.
FY company guidance has been maintained, implying an earnings recovery HoH driven by the Optical segment experiencing order visibility and new customer acquisition.

GENOVA (9341 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 24.7% YoY to JPY7.6bn, with operating profit rising 10.6% YoY to JPY1.6bn.
Medical Platform business achieved 18.9% YoY revenue growth, with average contract unit price at JPY1.4mn (-0.2% YoY).
Smart Clinic business saw 45.1% YoY revenue growth, with hardware and software services contributing 64.0% and 36.0% respectively.

IQVIA Holdings: Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy Is a Significant Needle Mover!

IQVIA Holdings Inc. has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, showcasing a mixed but overall resilient financial performance in a challenging landscape.
Despite facing hindrances such as the Inflation Reduction Act impacts, geopolitical unrest, high interest rates, and inflation, the company has displayed significant achievements and noticeable resilience.
On the positive side, IQVIA has recorded a full-year revenue growth of 5.5% at constant currency excluding COVID-related declines, with adjusted diluted earnings per share rising by over 9%.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) – Increasingly Healthy Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) booked an impressive set of FY2024 results, booking healthy growth driven by pharmaceuticals, distribution & Logistics, and consumer health, with slower growth from its nutritionals segment.
The company continues to pursue growth in oncology and biologic drugs in its pharmaceutical segment, whilst pursuing strategic collaborations and pursuing National Health exposure.
Kalbe Farma is pursuing wellness products in consumer health and repositioning toward more affordable products in the nutritional space. Valuations are attractive on 17x FY2025E PER.

Becton Dickinson: 85% Recurring Revenue—Is This Stock an Untouchable Healthcare Powerhouse?

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD) recently held its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings presentation, announcing strong financial performance and strategic decisions that could significantly reshape the company’s future.
The most critical updates included the impressive results from its existing business units, plans to separate its Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions segment, and supporting market prospects driven by ongoing innovation.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential

By Dalius Tauraitis

Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.
Sage has ~$500m in net cash and a 50/50 partnership with Biogen on Zurzuvae, valued at $10/share.
Biogen’s interest in Sage is driven by Zurzuvae’s potential as a blockbuster drug and associated synergies.

AstraZeneca: A Tale Of Oncology, Rare Diseases & Big Acquisitions!

AstraZeneca presented robust financial outcomes for the year 2024, achieving a total revenue growth of 21% and an increase in core earnings per share (EPS) of 19%.
This reflects solid demand across its diverse portfolio and geographical footprint.
The company’s strategic focus led to numerous pipeline advancements, notably nine high-value pivotal trial readouts that signify future growth potential, with an ambition to introduce 20 new medicines by 2030.

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Feb 14

Daily Brief Health Care: Daiichi Sankyo, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Kestra Medical Technologies, Veeda Clinical Research Ltd, Natco Pharma, Nektar Therapeutics, Cybin , Canbas Co Ltd, Aethlon Medical , NLS Pharmaceutics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small
Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO
Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result
Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly
Cybin, Inc.: A Cash Flow Analysis
Canbas Co Ltd (4575 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
Aethlon Medical Inc – The company expects to conduct a capital raise that
NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP) Core Investment Case 13022025

Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah

Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hengrui (恒瑞医药) A/H Listing: A Worthy Comparison with Hansoh Pharma

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
Given its similarity to Hong Kong-listed Hansoh Pharma, we think it is worth a comparison between the two.
Both companies are decent biopharma players and are trading at a premium to other pharmaceutical company peers. Upon comparison, we think Hengrui’s H should be at a premium to Hansoh.

Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd (KMTS): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Medical Device IPO

They are a commercial-stage, wearable medical device and digital healthcare company focused on transforming patient outcomes in cardiovascular disease.
As of January 31, 2025, the ASSURE WCD is actively being prescribed by more than 550 hospitals and has been worn by over 17,000 patients.
We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the last week of February or the first week of March.

Veeda Clinical Research Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Veeda Clinical Research Ltd (3340714Z IN) (VCRL) is looking to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, CLSA, IIFL, SBI.
VCRL is a global contract research organization offering comprehensive drug development services, including non-clinical, pre-clinical, clinical trials, and studies across diverse drug types like generics, biosimilars, and medical devices.
The company operates in key global markets, including North America, Europe, and Asia, with a presence in India.

Natco Pharma Q3 FY25 Earnings Analysis: 20% Lower Circuit Post Result

By Sudarshan Bhandari

There will be significant drop in revenue in FY26 due to the loss of exclusivity of the key product, but company is looking for acquisition & doing R&D.
Natco is focusing on launching the oral version of Semaglutide in the Indian market and is awaiting regulatory approvals for clinical trials.
Primary reason of fall in revenue was the absence of sales from a key product.

Nektar Therapeutics: Potential Blockbuster Drug and Mispricing Amidst Re-Analyzed Data and Legal Dispute with Lilly

By Dalius Tauraitis

Nektar Therapeutics trades at 50% of its cash, with potential upside from its atopic dermatitis treatment and Dapirolizumab royalties.
Rezpegaldesleukin’s re-analyzed EASI75 delta is 21%, potentially increasing to 43% due to data anomalies.
NKTR’s litigation against Eli Lilly for data misanalysis could result in substantial compensation if settled.

Cybin, Inc.: A Cash Flow Analysis

By Water Tower Research

3QFY25 earnings release. The most important pieces of information from the earnings release of a late clinical-stage biotech company like Cybin (NYSE: CYBN) are principally updates on upcoming clinical milestones and the state of its balance sheet.
On this basis, we highlight the key takeaways from Cybin’s 3QFY25 earnings report that was released this week.
Milestones update. The release hinted at slight timeline slippages in upcoming milestones, which can be considered the normal course of business in the clinical research world.

Canbas Co Ltd (4575 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

CanBas reported no operating revenue and a net loss of JPY480mn, with R&D expenses increasing by 33.9% YoY.
Total assets rose by JPY699mn due to stock acquisition rights exercise, increasing cash and deposits by JPY973mn.
Phase 3 clinical trial preparation in Europe for CBP501 is ongoing, with anticipated costs of approximately JPY5.5bn.

Aethlon Medical Inc – The company expects to conduct a capital raise that

The company expects to conduct a capital raise that, along with the expected (and recent) exercise of outstanding warrants, could extend its cash runway significantly.
Additionally, AEMD has made cost reductions and also stands to benefit from the up to 43.5% cash tax rebate on clinical trial-related R&D costs in Australia and lower costs of conducting clinical trials in India.
Separately, while the company’s near-term focus is on assessing the Hemopurifier as a potential treatment for oncology, longer-term AEMD continues to view the device as a potential tool in the treatment of viruses, organ transplants and other medical areas.

NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP) Core Investment Case 13022025

By ACF Equity Research

NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP:NasdaqCM) is a clinical-stage Swiss foreign issuer biotech advancing the Dual Orexin Receptor Agonist (DOXA) platform, a next-generation approach to treating neurological, neurodegenerative (NDD), and metabolic disorders.
The DOXA platform is designed to restore orexin signaling and modulate neuroinflammatory pathways, offering a possible market leading approach to sleep-wake disorders, ALS, and other NDDs. The DOXA platform presents a high-value opportunity for breakthrough therapies, in CNS, immune dysregulation and metabolic medicine.
Following shareholder approval and SEC sign off for the merger with KDST, NLSP will divest Mazindol and other assets, to focus on the DOXA pipeline.

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Feb 13

Daily Brief Health Care: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Atea Pharmaceuticals , Cencora , Hologic Inc, Kadimastem, Ansell Ltd, Sunshine Lake Pharma, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals , Bio Techne Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound
Reviving two old ideas
Cencora Inc.: Can the MSO Strategy with RCA & OneOncology Drive Sustainable Growth?
Hologic: The Future of 3D Mammography and Molecular Diagnostics—What’s Next?
Kadimastem (KDST.TA) Core Investment Case 11022025
Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Healthcare Business Revival Drives H1 Result; FY25 Guidance Raised
Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc – On February 10
Bio-Techne Corporation: How Spatial Biology and Molecular Diagnostics Are Changing the Game!

Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Innovation and Overseas Expansion Driving Earnings Rebound

By Sumeet Singh

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
JHP has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Reviving two old ideas

By Turtles all the way down

I have again taken a position in Atea Pharma (AVIR) .
I wrote this up a little over a year ago and flipped it for about a 20% profit within a few months.
I kind of forgot about it as I lost interest in these pharma special situations, but given recent events AVIR is too enticing to ignore.

Cencora Inc.: Can the MSO Strategy with RCA & OneOncology Drive Sustainable Growth?

Cencora reported a robust performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant growth across various metrics.
The company recorded a revenue increase of 13%, reaching $81.5 billion, driven primarily by strong gains in the U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment.
This growth included a substantial rise in sales of GLP-1 products, which alone saw a 53% year over-year increase.

Hologic: The Future of 3D Mammography and Molecular Diagnostics—What’s Next?

Hologic, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, reflecting both positive operational efficiencies and some challenges impacting revenue streams.
The overall revenue for the quarter came in at $1.022 billion, marking a modest 1% increase on a constant currency basis.
Noteworthy is the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar, which reduced reported revenue by about $9 million.

Kadimastem (KDST.TA) Core Investment Case 11022025

By ACF Equity Research

Kadimastem (KDST.TA:TASE) is an Israeli-based clinical-stage cell therapy company pioneering regenerative medicine for insulin dependent type 1 diabetes (T1D) (no more injections) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
KDST has a proprietary stem-cell differentiation platform for scalable therapies designed to replace lost or damaged cells.
KDST’s T1D IsletRx program aims to revolutionize insulin production for diabetes patients using off-the-shelf allogeneic encapsulated pancreatic islet cells with immune protection.

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU): Healthcare Business Revival Drives H1 Result; FY25 Guidance Raised

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) reported 30% YoY growth in revenue to $1,019M in 1HFY25 backed by strong Healthcare and Industrial business contribution. EBIT margin expanded 250bps to 12.5%.
KBU integration is progressing well and APIP measures bearing fruit generating higher savings. The company has realized a savings of $22M in H1FY25, compared to $7M in H1FY24.
Ansell revised FY25 adjusted EPS from $1.10–1.27 to $1.18–1.28, with the midpoint beating consensus. Management expects continued organic constant currency sales growth in H2FY25, but slower than H1FY25.

Pre-IPO Sunshine Lake Pharma – “Outdated” Pipeline Is Difficult to Obtain Decent Valuation

Most revenue was contributed by Kewei, but kewei has been included in VBP.Together with increasing competition, the outlook is gloomy if Sunshine Lake Pharma continues to mainly rely on Kewei.
There’s a significant gap in Sunshine Lake Pharma’s R&D progress/clinical data compared to the products of peers.The pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years
Sunshine Lake Pharma is inferior to other pharmaceutical companies in China.Even if CJ Pharma will be merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, its market value should be lower than leading Biotech.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc – On February 10

On February 10, 2024, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 that ended December 31, 2024.
Following the company’s recent license and collaboration agreement with Sarepta Therapeutics, 2025 is set to be a catalyst-rich year.
The company is now financed through 2028 and potentially through multiple commercial launches by Arrowhead and/or its partners, the first of which could occur this year for plozasiran for the treatment of familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), which has a PDUFA date of November 18, 2025.

Bio-Techne Corporation: How Spatial Biology and Molecular Diagnostics Are Changing the Game!

Bio-Techne Corporation’s second quarter of fiscal year 2025 results showcased a blend of robust growth and some challenges.
The company reported a 9% year-over-year increase in revenue, achieving $297 million in total sales, which was also the growth rate on an organic basis.
This performance was largely fueled by significant contributions from the biopharma end markets, especially large pharmaceutical orders for Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) reagents and protein analytical implementations, alongside notable strides in their ExosomeDx and spatial biology divisions.

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Feb 12

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Alkem Laboratories Ltd, PegBio, Aardvark Therapeutics, CSL Ltd, Shofu Inc, GSK , Mckesson Corp, Novo Nordisk A/S and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update
Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term
PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Caution Needed Ahead of Small-Cap Obesity Biotech IPO
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained
Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact
GSK Plc.: Will its Broader Vaccine Portfolio & International Expansion Strengthen Its Competitive Position Internationally?
McKesson Corporation: Growth in Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) to Solidify Its Competitive Advantage!
Novo Nordisk: Can This $11 Billion Expansion Solve Its Wegovy and Ozempic Supply Crisis & Give It An Edge Over Eli Lilly?

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- LVC Is Betting on Higher Valuation Upside Due to Business Update

LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move.
In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Shifting Focus to Chronic Segment to Yield Result in Long-Term

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) has announced twin acquisitions in medical devices and dermatology space. The acquisitions will further strengthen Alkem’s positioning in the domestic market.
Alkem has reported Q3FY25 result, with mainstay domestic business showing 6% YoY growth. EBITDA margin improved to 22.5% (Q3FY24: 21.3% and Q2FY25: 22.0%).
Alkem’s inclination toward acute and NELM segments has been a reason for its historically cheaper valuation. However, with portfolio expansion toward high-margin chronic segment should place Alkem for re-rating.

PegBio (派格生物) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PegBio, a China-based biotech company, plans to raise up to USD 150 million via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we examined the company’s core product namely PB-119.
In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s key products.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Caution Needed Ahead of Small-Cap Obesity Biotech IPO

We believe exercising caution based upon the small market cap of the company and the existing backers is the prudent play at this time.
Aardvark Therapeutics develops novel, small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases.
Their lead product candidate is an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain TAS2Rs expressed in the gut lumen and have initiated a Phase 3 trial for hyperphagia associated with PWS.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

For H1FY25, CSL Ltd (CSL AU) reported net profit of $2.01B, up 6% YoY, missing estimate of $2.07B. Underlying profit (NPATA) grew 3% YoY to $2.07B.
H1FY25 revenue increased 5% YoY to $8.48B. Solid performance from CSL Behring and CSL Vifor was partially offset by negative impact from CSL Seqirus.
The company has reaffirmed FY25 underlying profit guidance of $3.2–3.3B at constant currency, up 10–13% YoY. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 5–7% YoY at constant currency.

Shofu (7979 JP) – Positive Dynamics Intact

By Astris Advisory Japan

Demand for Shofu’s competitive Chemical products continue to drive overseas growth and improve the sales mix, with 58.6% of total Q1-3 FY3/25 sales derived overseas.
Reported quarterly Q3 FY3/25 GPM and OPM have declined QoQ, but these were due to one-time events, resulting in a robust underlying trend indicating that the business is becoming more profitable whilst still investing in business expansion.
The weak yen has been a tailwind, but the company has maintained FY3/25 guidance. With no end-loaded costs expected for Q4 FY3/25, we maintain our earnings estimates.

GSK Plc.: Will its Broader Vaccine Portfolio & International Expansion Strengthen Its Competitive Position Internationally?

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has reported its 2024 financial results, highlighting both positive trends and areas of concern for potential investors.
A detailed overview of GSK’s performance and strategic initiatives underlines key aspects that can inform an investment thesis.
On the positive side, GSK’s transformation post-demerger into a biopharma-focused company is evident through robust growth in specialty medicines, which now form a significant portion of the company’s portfolio.

McKesson Corporation: Growth in Prescription Technology Solutions (RxTS) to Solidify Its Competitive Advantage!

McKesson Corporation’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call reveals a mix of robust financial performance and strategic advancements, balanced by certain challenges.
The company achieved an 18% revenue increase to $95.3 billion, with a notable 16% growth in adjusted operating profit, reaching $1.5 billion.
This performance was bolstered by strong contributions from the U.S. Pharmaceutical and Prescription Technology Solutions segments, underscoring the company’s operational strength and its diversified business model.

Novo Nordisk: Can This $11 Billion Expansion Solve Its Wegovy and Ozempic Supply Crisis & Give It An Edge Over Eli Lilly?

Novo Nordisk delivered a strong financial performance in 2024, with a 26% rise in both sales and operating profit, driven by its blockbuster diabetes and obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy.
The company reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations, largely due to pricing adjustments in the U.S. The results eased investor concerns over a potential slowdown in the obesity market, particularly after rival Eli Lilly’s recent sales miss.
Novo’s stock surged 3% in European trading and 3.4% in premarket U.S. trading following the earnings report.

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Feb 11

Daily Brief Health Care: Hanx Biopharmaceuticals, Paragon 28 Inc, M3 Inc, CEL-SCI , Cybin and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates
M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak
CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results
Cybin, Inc. – Why CYB003 Deserves More Attention

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb.
There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There’re concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&D failure risks.
After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates

By Dalius Tauraitis

Paragon 28 is being acquired by Zimmer Biomet for $13/share plus a non-transferable CVR, with potential payout.
Allakos is undergoing a strategic review, trading at net cash, with potential value in NOLs and reverse merger.
Copper Property CTL Trust is liquidating, marketing 121 retail properties leased to JC Penney, with 30%+ NAV upside.

M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak

M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 earnings today. Both revenue and OP grew YoY as well as beat consensus estimates. Most of revenue growth came from the ELAN acquisition.
Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while there has been a slight improvement in Overseas earnings during the quarter.
Though the overall declining trend in m3’s earnings has eased, we expect the earnings growth to remain weak. ELAN’s margins have continued to deteriorate.

CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results

CEL-SCI is developing two platforms: Multikine and LEAPS.
Multikine has completed a Phase 3 trial for head and neck cancer while LEAPS is conducting preclinical studies for RA, Pandemic Flu and breast cancer.
In June 2021, CEL-SCI reported selected data from its IT-MATTERS trial demonstrating a benefit in the low PD-L1, non-chemotherapy population.

Cybin, Inc. – Why CYB003 Deserves More Attention

By Water Tower Research

GH Research’s (NASDAQ: GHRS) release earlier this week of the top-line read of the Phase 2b trial of its lead fast onset and short-acting 5-MeO-DMT monotherapy candidate GH-001 in treating treatment-resistant depression (TRD) elicited an unequivocally positive reaction from investors.
GHRS’ share price surged 70% on the day of the release and opportunistically opened up a pathway to the commencement of a public offering at $15/share (41.5% above the GHRS level immediately prior to the GH-001 Phase 2b results release).
GH-001 met its end points in its short eight-day double-blind placebo-controlled study with an eight-day 15.2 placebo-adjusted reduction in MADRS from the baseline and a remission rate of 57.5%.

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Feb 10

Daily Brief Health Care: Otsuka Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for 2024, Core 2 Products Show Strength

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for 2024, Core 2 Products Show Strength

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) has revised revenue guidance for 2024 to ¥2,320B from previous ¥2,310B. Pharmaceutical business and nutraceutical business performed strongly.
2024 operating profit guidance have been revised slightly upwards to ¥323B. Due to the impact of temporary tax adjustment in U.S., net profit guidance raised by 43% to ¥343B.
Otsuka shares have rallied 40% in the last one year. With multiple growth drivers at play Otsuka is poised for accelerated growth.

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Feb 09

Daily Brief Health Care: Amgen Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sionna Therapeutics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Libtayo Expansion To Up Their Oncology Game!
Sionna Therapeutics Inc. (SION): RA Capital Backed Biotech IPO Booms in Debut

Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy

Amgen Inc. highlighted substantial achievements and growth potential for 2024 while outlining some challenges and strategies moving forward.
The company’s financial results reflected its success across various therapeutic areas, despite facing pricing pressures and patent expirations.
Revenue for the full year of 2024 reached $33.4 billion, reflecting a significant 19% increase year-over-year, driven mainly by a 23% volume increase across products.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Libtayo Expansion To Up Their Oncology Game!

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals presented its fourth-quarter 2024 results, revealing a 10% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by strong performances from key product lines such as Dupixent, EYLEA, and Libtayo.
Dupixent, in particular, has become a blockbuster treatment in multiple indications, showing robust uptake across the globe with more than 1 million patients currently benefiting from the drug in various approved applications.
However, the performance of EYLEA was noted in a competitive landscape, with the company focused on increasing the market share of EYLEA HD through upcoming product enhancements like prefilled syringe options and extended dosing intervals.

Sionna Therapeutics Inc. (SION): RA Capital Backed Biotech IPO Booms in Debut

Biopharmaceutical company on a mission to revolutionize the current treatment paradigm for cystic fibrosis opened its IPO 39% above issue.
The transaction was upsized from 8.8mm shares to 10.6mm shares and priced at the high-end of the range.
The IPOs that are more apt to see “follow-through” in the aftermarket are those with product candidates in later stage. This IPO does not meet that criteria.

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Feb 08

Daily Brief Health Care: Symbio Pharmaceuticals, Novartis , Astellas Pharma, IDEXX Laboratories, LogicMark , Shionogi & Co, Tsumura & Co, Charm Care Corp, Dyadic International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Symbio Pharmaceuticals (4582 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
Novartis: Spinning Off Sandoz—Will a Focused Strategy Pay Off?
Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 9MFY25 Result- Strategic Brands Strong; Margins Expand; Guidance Raised
IDEXX Laboratories: Executing International Expansion To Capitalize On Its Competitive Edge Across Global Veterinary Markets!
LGMK: New Products, New Distribution Channels, New Agreements
Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan
Tsumura & Co (4540 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Charm Care Corp (6062 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
DYAI: Looking Toward Product Revenues

Symbio Pharmaceuticals (4582 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

Sales decreased by 56.1% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with a gross profit of JPY1.9bn and a gross margin of 76.4%.
Operating loss increased to JPY3.9bn in FY12/24, with SG&A expenses at JPY5.8bn, including R&D expenses of JPY3.4bn.
FY12/25 forecast: Sales at JPY1.9bn, operating loss at JPY4.3bn, with total SG&A expenses projected at JPY5.6bn.

Novartis: Spinning Off Sandoz—Will a Focused Strategy Pay Off?

Novartis reported strong financial results for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, marking one of the most robust performances in its history.
The company recorded a 16% increase in sales in the fourth quarter and a 29% rise in core operating income, both in constant currency.
For the full year, sales grew 12%, while core operating income expanded by 22%, with an operating margin reaching 38.7%.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 9MFY25 Result- Strategic Brands Strong; Margins Expand; Guidance Raised

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported a 22% YoY (6% from favourable Fx rates) revenue growth to ¥1,453B in 9MFY25. The U.S. market continue to be key, contributing 46% of revenue.
Operating profit rose 44% YoY to ¥297.5B, with operating margin expanding 310bps to 20.5%. Core profit increased 35% YoY to ¥223B, with margins improving 150bps to 15.4% in 9MFY25.
Guidance revised upward, with revenue now expected at ¥1,900B on robust XTANDI performance and favorable forex movement.

IDEXX Laboratories: Executing International Expansion To Capitalize On Its Competitive Edge Across Global Veterinary Markets!

IDEXX Laboratories, a global leader in veterinary diagnostics, software, and water quality products, closed out 2024 with a solid performance, surpassing expectations and setting a strong foundation for 2025.
The company reported a 6% organic revenue increase in Q4 2024, driven by a 7% rise in its core Companion Animal Group (CAG) Diagnostic recurring revenues.
Operating profits grew 7% as reported, and 8% on a comparable basis, supported by favorable gross margin gains.

LGMK: New Products, New Distribution Channels, New Agreements

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for LogicMark, Inc. (LGMK)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): 9MFY25 Revenue Flat; Insomnia Drug Launched; NDA Submission in Japan

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) reported 1% YoY revenue decline during 9MFY25 as domestic sales of prescription drugs decreased 38% YoY.
Quviviq, a DORA treatment for insomnia was launched in December 2024. Shionogi acquired exclusive distribution rights for Quviviq in Japan and it is expected to be a significant revenue contributor.
Shionogi submitted NDA in Japan for zuranolone, a treatment in development for major depressive disorder (MDD). Approval is expected in H1FY26.

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY136.8bn, with a 20.6% YoY increase in domestic business and flat growth in China business.
Operating profit rose 69.1% YoY to JPY32.4bn, driven by revenue growth and a decline in cost ratios.
The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue but raising profit forecasts due to lower expenses and yen depreciation.

Charm Care Corp (6062 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

In 1H FY06/25, revenue increased by 7.9% YoY, operating profit grew 11.7% YoY, maintaining high occupancy rates.
As of end-Q2, 104 assisted-living facilities operated with 7,086 rooms, maintaining high occupancy despite increased resident departures.
Good Partners’ revenue and profit were strong; Charm Senior Living’s referral business contributed to occupancy growth at facilities.

DYAI: Looking Toward Product Revenues