ECM Daily Briefs | Page 28 of 161

In today’s briefing:

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
British Land: Buy on Improving Industry Fundamentals
Chifeng Jilong A/H Trading – Weak Institutional Demand and Probably Close to Fair Value
ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) – BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

MIXUE’s IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.

British Land: Buy on Improving Industry Fundamentals

By Jacob Cheng

British Land is an office and retail landlord in UK. Around 60% of its assets are campus/offices, with all assets located in UK
We think the underling retail and office market are showing solid recovery, which will support British Land key operating business
British Land also sees capital recycling as an important pillar, including dividend, balance sheet management, and M&As to drive shareholders’ returns

Chifeng Jilong A/H Trading – Weak Institutional Demand and Probably Close to Fair Value

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, raised around US$363m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

ECM Weekly (10th Mar 2025) – BYD, Japan Post, Mixue, Sanhua, Chifeng, Nanshan, Goertek, Travel Food

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) provided some much needed relief to the HK tea chains, Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) might not do the same this week.
On the placements front, BYD (1211 HK)‘s jumbo offering has been doing well, while Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn’t been correcting much.

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Mar 09

Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others and more

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings
China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) – 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE’s Stunning IPO Debut

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) – Not Cheap Enough Vs Others, or Holdings

By Travis Lundy

The Offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not taking place the way “the right pattern” would suggest, but last time was kind of special. This time is different.
Last time was a “second IPO” and coincided with a US regional bank crisis. This time the offering is smaller outright, and much smaller as a portion of float.
Pricing is Monday. It hasn’t moved much vs JPH. It needs to move more to be attractive. And there is still a bit of overhang to come.

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) – 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE’s Stunning IPO Debut

The 11th national VBP is expected to start in 2025H1. Companies such as Kelun, CSPC, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma, China Resources Pharmaceutical, etc. are expected to be affected the most.
It is estimated that the entire market of PD-1/L1 x VEGF BsAb is approximately US$20-30 billion. AK112 is expected to seize about 40%-50% of the market or US$8-15 billion.
MIXUE’s IPO debut was stellar. Conservative investors can considering taking profits as risk of share price corrections has increased. Radical investors can choose to bet on valuation exceeding Nongfu Spring.

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Mar 08

Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook and more

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook
TXR Robotics: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure
Chery Auto Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have declined by 2.5%. On 3 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 13.3 million shares for JPY20 billion.
To understand JPB’s trading pattern, it is instructive to examine its 2023 offering, Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering, and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares follow the trading pattern playbook of its 2023 and JPH’s 2021 offerings, in which investors buying the offer were rewarded with positive returns at the payment date.

TXR Robotics: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

The IPO price of TXR Robotics has been finalized at 13,500 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
The demand ratio among institutional investors was 862.6 to 1.
According to our valuation analysis, it suggests an implied price of 19,673 won per share, which is 46% higher than the IPO price (13,500 won).

CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 — CoreWeave (CRWV US) .
Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.
According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.

Chery Auto Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (CACTZ CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Huatai and GF Securities.
Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
According to F&S, it was the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, and the 11th largest globally, in terms of global sales volume of passenger vehicles in 9M24.

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Mar 07

Daily Brief ECM: Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis and more

In today’s briefing:

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis
JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great
DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity
Travel Food Services Pre-IPO – Flourishing Takeoff and Takeout Services
Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
MNTN, Inc. (MNTN) – Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Performance Marketing Platform Software Company
Nanshan Aluminium Pre-IPO: Largest SEA Producer but Most of Revenue Comes from Two Customers
PMEA Solar Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Paired With Shrinking Efficiency And High Debt
Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): IPO Pops 35% at Open, Holds Gains Amidst Volatile Backdrop

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.

JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.
ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.
Our SOTP valuation suggests that JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.

DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

With cautious foreign interest, DN Solutions’ big IPO deal might skip the OC and go full local for bookbuilding, setting a new trend in Korean IPOs.
If foreign anchor orders drop, local players gain more negotiating power, leading to aggressive bidding and potentially a way more conservative IPO price.
Offshore funds passing investment review without an OC could grab more volume, benefiting from local-led down-pricing without lock-up restrictions.

Travel Food Services Pre-IPO – Flourishing Takeoff and Takeout Services

By Akshat Shah

Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) is looking to raise about US$238m in its upcoming India IPO.
Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Sigenergy (SIG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC and BNP Paribas.
It provides renewable energy solutions, catering to 1) residential, 2) commercial, and 3) industrial applications.
The group markets and sells to distributors and primarily serves the European market.

MNTN, Inc. (MNTN) – Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Performance Marketing Platform Software Company

Their Performance TV software platform allows marketers to combine the powerful storytelling format of TV advertising with the targeting, measurement and attribution capabilities of paid search and social advertising.
They had revenue of $176.3 million and $225.6 million and net loss of $53.3 million and $32.9 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of March

Nanshan Aluminium Pre-IPO: Largest SEA Producer but Most of Revenue Comes from Two Customers

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

PMEA Solar Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Paired With Shrinking Efficiency And High Debt

By Rosita Fernandes

PMEA Solar Tech Solutions Limited (0991151D IN) (PSTSL) is planning to raise about US$116m through its upcoming India IPO.
PSTSL specializes in manufacturing solar equipments, primarily focusing on module mounting assemblies and rolled products. Its other business includes manufacturing automotive components and other products.
The company held an estimated market share of 9% of the overall domestic market for solar tracking and mounting products used in solar trackers, as per CRISIL Report.

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): IPO Pops 35% at Open, Holds Gains Amidst Volatile Backdrop

Kestra Medical Technologies priced 11.9mm shares (upsized from 10.0mm) at $17.00 ($1 Above the $14-$16 range) and opened at $22.95 for a gain of 35%.
Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS US) is the second medical device company to go public with success in 2025.
The equity capital markets area is still under scrutiny as a whole following the lackluster debuts of the two large IPOs in 2025.

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Mar 06

Daily Brief ECM: Dozn IPO Valuation Analysis and more

In today’s briefing:

Dozn IPO Valuation Analysis
Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company – The Challenges Ahead and the Outlook

Dozn IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Dozn is implied market cap of 429 billion won or target price of 17,910 won per share (43% higher than high-end of IPO price range).
Our base case target price is based on P/E of 25.3x (20% premium to comps’ average valuation multiple) using our estimated net profit of 17 billion won in 2025.
This valuation premium is appropriate due to Dozn’s higher sales growth rate, higher net margins, and higher ROE versus the comps.

Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company – The Challenges Ahead and the Outlook

The entire condiments market in China is deeply mired in fierce competition with limited market increment space. The future performance growth of companies in the industry will further slow down.
Haitian tries to find new growth points through diversification/internationalization. A big concern is whether China’s local brand will face “adaptation issue” overseas. The supply chain system is not yet perfect
Due to the concerns on slowing performance growth in the future as well as the uncertainties on internationalization, we think reasonable valuation for Haitian is about 20-30x P/E.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief ECM: Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders and more

In today’s briefing:

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view.
Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year.

It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here

By Daniel Hellberg

Over the last 25 months, there’s been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
The latest challenges: US tariff chaos & Amazon’s launch of its competing platform, Haul
Tariff changes & growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief ECM: BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size and more

In today’s briefing:

BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well
JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair
JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis
Chery Automobile IPO Preview
Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around
Goertek Pre-IPO: Too Reliant on Apple
PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good

BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

By Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.
Relevant notes – JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair.

JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share.
Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO.

Chery Automobile IPO Preview

Chery Automobile is getting ready to complete an IPO in Hong Kong in the coming months. The company could raise up to US$1 billion in this IPO.
Chery Auto is the second largest automaker in China and the 11th largest auto company globally. The valuation of Chery Auto could be more than 100 billion yuan (US$14 billion).
Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.

Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around

We Doctor’s business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
We Doctor’s Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.

Goertek Pre-IPO: Too Reliant on Apple

Goertek Microelectronics (1961589D CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a subsidiary of Goertek Inc A (002241 CH) , and is a world-leading provider of smart sensing interaction solutions.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
We look at the difference between previous filing and current PHIP filing. We see massive delays which don’t position the company well for the listing.

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Mar 03

Daily Brief ECM: JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview and more

In today’s briefing:

JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview
Weekly Deals Digest (02 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, 7&I, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Mixue, JXAM
MIXUE IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx
Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Why Not Own International Peers Instead?
ECM Weekly (3rd Mar 2025) – Japan Post Bank, JX Advance, Mixue, Chifeng, JSW Cement, Premier, Guzman

JX Advanced Metals IPO Preview

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is seeking to raise about ¥460 billion in the upcoming IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The indicative IPO price is ¥862 per share.
The final IPO pricing will be on 10 March. JX Advanced Metals will be listed on 19 March. Eneos is selling as many as 534.9 million shares in the IPO.
The company has a strong customer base. It is a key supplier to TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron for sputtering targets and high-purity metals.

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, 7&I, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Mixue, JXAM

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Mixue Group (2097 HK) andJX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPOs. Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) placement.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Tonami Holdings (9070 JP), Sg Fleet (SGF AU).

MIXUE IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Why Not Own International Peers Instead?

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) , a gold mining company in China, is now looking to raise up to US$419m in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
It operates six gold mines in Asia and Africa and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2004.
We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

ECM Weekly (3rd Mar 2025) – Japan Post Bank, JX Advance, Mixue, Chifeng, JSW Cement, Premier, Guzman

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Mixue Group (2097 HK) looks set to break the tea chain jinx in its listing today, while JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will set its pricing.
On the placements front, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) was back with a US$4bn+ deal in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP).

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Mar 02

Daily Brief ECM: Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis and more

In today’s briefing:

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
Ecopro Materials: Seeking 300 Billion Won in Additional Capital Raise

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).
SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March.
Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.

Ecopro Materials: Seeking 300 Billion Won in Additional Capital Raise

It has been reported in the local media that EcoPro Materials (450080 KS) is seeking about 300 billion won in additional capital which represents about 5% of its market cap.
There could be concerns about dilution associated with this capital raise which could result in share price decline. The company is currently considering on issuing RCPS for this capital raise.
There could be additional concerns about potential dilution associated with this capital raise which could result in further share price decline for Ecopro Materials.

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Mar 01

Daily Brief ECM: Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility and more

In today’s briefing:

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility