Japan

In today’s briefing:

DISCO Corporation (TSE: 6146) – From Abrasive Wheels to AI Packaging Champion
Nidec (6594 JP): Wait for Hard Numbers
Asian Dividend Gems: Mars Group Holdings
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Peak Rare Earths, Yutaka Giken, Shibaura, Johns Lyng, Ainsworth, Ashimori

DISCO Corporation (TSE: 6146) – From Abrasive Wheels to AI Packaging Champion

DISCO is the global leader in wafer dicing and grinding, holding ~70–80% market share in critical back-end semiconductor tools.
Anagement is expanding capacity via the Gohara Plant (FY2028) and upgrading innovation at the Haneda R&D Center (FY2025–27) to secure its edge in hybrid bonding, PLP, and stealth dicing.
Revenues are projected to grow ~11% CAGR to FY2028, with EPS potentially reaching ¥1,500, but the stock trades at a premium ~33x FY26E P/E.

Nidec (6594 JP): Wait for Hard Numbers

By Scott Foster

Nidec dropped 22% on Thursday following management’s decision to establish an independent committee to investigate accounting irregularities. It bounced back nearly 5% on Friday, but finished the week down 20%.
In June, the Company received approval to postpone submitting its FY Mar-25 securities report until September 26. In July, it released incomplete 1Q results while postponing full disclosure.
Without correct numbers, we can only guess at the full impact of the accounting irregularities and their effect on management.

Asian Dividend Gems: Mars Group Holdings

By Douglas Kim

Mars Group Holdings has three main business units including Amusement related (including pachinko/pachislot peripherals), Smart Solutions, and Hotels/restaurants related.
It trades at P/E of 8.5x, P/B of 0.8x, and EV/EBITDA of 2.3x. Net cash is 48% of its market cap.
Its sales, gross profit, and operating profit increased by 180%, 146%, and 680%, respectively from FY22 to FY25. However, it had a disappointing results in FY1Q26.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Peak Rare Earths, Yutaka Giken, Shibaura, Johns Lyng, Ainsworth, Ashimori

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) and Yutaka Giken (7229 JP).
Key updates/news took place on Johns Lyng (JLG AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), and Pacific Industrial (7250 JP).

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Sep 06

Daily Brief Japan: MS&AD Insurance, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Minebea Mitsumi, Sumitomo Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Japan Business Systems , D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc. and more

In today’s briefing:

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Sep25), TSE Presents Interesting Feedback
Donki’s PPI Aims for Market Leadership with 550 More Stores
Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP): Capital Discipline Over Reach — But at What Cost?
Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) – Air Lease Deal Creates Global No. 2 in Aircraft Leasing
Do Managers Who Give Small Amounts of Shareholder Return to Have Other Objectives?
Q3 Follow-Up – Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – September 5, 2025
Q2 Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – September 4, 2025

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Sep25), TSE Presents Interesting Feedback

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
216 new CGRs filed in Aug-2025 (after 783 in July, 1,389 in June). Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff-file tool. Input name, see changes.
The JPX Council of Experts met on 2 Sep (and 9 July before that). The parent-sub changes are slow to come. 2 Sep docs may be worth reading in parts.

Donki’s PPI Aims for Market Leadership with 550 More Stores

By Michael Causton

Having lost out to Trial in acquiring Seiyu, PPI’s new president last month announced an aggressive new strategy.
PPI will hugely expand through a roll out of a completely new chain of up to 300 supermarkets and the addition of 250 more Don Quijote stores.
Don Quijote continues to outperform thanks to strong support from both locals looking for cheaper essentials and inbound tourists, as well as improving performance abroad.

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP): Capital Discipline Over Reach — But at What Cost?

Minebea bid ¥6,200/share for Shibaura, but Yageo countered at ¥7,130/share (~¥90–95bn), now cleared by regulators.
Yageo’s FEFTA approval removes Minebea’s “certainty” advantage, leaving its lower bid exposed.
Unless Minebea revises above its self-declared ceiling, Shibaura’s ~13% global thermistor share likely shifts to Yageo.

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) – Air Lease Deal Creates Global No. 2 in Aircraft Leasing

Sumitomo Corporation will acquire Air Lease Corporation for US $7.4B (EV US $28.2B), creating Sumisho Air Lease, the world’s second-largest lessor.
The deal strengthens Sumitomo’s Transportation & Construction Systems unit, boosting scale and recurring revenues.
Longer term, it positions Sumitomo to capture growth in the US $200+ billion aircraft leasing market, diversifying away from resource dependence.

Do Managers Who Give Small Amounts of Shareholder Return to Have Other Objectives?

If large companies that posted conservative outlook for FY3/2026 revise their guidance upwards amid weakening of Japanese Yen, there is an expectation that the decline in ROE will be smaller.
More companies are strengthening shareholder returns, but a few companies can maintain high enough ROE to create value by hiring large higher shareholder returns to have impact on ROE.
In order to raise ROE to a level that creates value, it is necessary to make investments and shareholder returns to have much impact on ROE.

Q3 Follow-Up – Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – September 5, 2025

On the back of brisk 1H performance and strong profit recovery led by Cloud Integration Business including NEXTSCAPE, JBS revised up full-term consolidated net sales by 10.0% to +17.1% YoY, OP by 31.6% to +63.3% YoY (OPM from 3.8% → 4.5%), and profit attributable to owners of parent by 35.1% to +230.1% YoY.
In addition to management successfully turning around profitability of Cloud Integration Business, this also reflects the underlying strong business environment from ongoing demand for DX investment in the cloud, AI and security.
Strong results momentum continued in Q3, as can be seen from the teal-colored bars in the two graphs below representing the quarterly trend of FY25/9 consolidated net sales and OP.

Q2 Follow-Up – D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – September 4, 2025

SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last year.
Key advances included: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house developed glaucoma treatment [H- 1337] Phase IIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line drug”),
2) commenced joint development Japan Phase II clinical trials of regenerative cell therapy [DWR-2206] with ActualEyes, and successfully completed all transplants…

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Sep 05

Daily Brief Japan: Nidec Corp, Advantest Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?
Advantest Corp (6857 JP) – From Cyclical Tester OEM to Structural AI Bottleneck

Who Owns Nidec (6594 JP) And How Much Could Be For Sale?

Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced in June they were extending the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
Yesterday, the company announced it would establish a Third-Party Investigative Committee based on suspected improper accounting at the sub of a Chinese sub 1yr ago and parent management knowledge.
There’s been a lot of work done. Now the committee digs in. The announcement smacks of IMS issues. Today the marketcap fell 22% or nearly ¥800bn on ¥200mm of accounting.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) – From Cyclical Tester OEM to Structural AI Bottleneck

Advantest (6857 JP) enjoys a near-monopoly in advanced SoC and memory testing, entrenched at TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, making it the structural gatekeeper of the AI supply chain.
The company is scaling capacity by 70% in FY25 and investing in next-gen chiplet and system-level test platforms to capture future AI/HBM growth.
At ~35× P/E and ~23× EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at a premium that reflects record margins and 25%+ CAGR, risks include AI capex cyclicality, Taiwan/Korea dependence, China restrictions, and FX.

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Sep 04

Daily Brief Japan: Ashimori Industry, Pacific Industrial, Metaplanet, Japan Post Bank, Japan System Techniques Co, Mec Co Ltd, Migalo Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

In today’s briefing:

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head
Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
Japan Post Bank- Adding Some Sizzle with a Move into Digital Currencies!
Q1 Follow-Up – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – August 25, 2025
MEC Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update
Q1 Follow-Up – MIGALO HOLDINGS (5535 JP) – August 26, 2025
What Is More Important in Promoting “Effective Investor Relations”?

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Murakami Outlines His Case

Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, has increased his Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) to an 18.36% ownership ratio at an average buy-in price of JPY4,154.28 vs. the JPY4,140 tender offer.
Crucially, in today’s disclosure, Takateru Murakami outlines the rationale for his stake building, which centres on the book value being materially understated if certain land were revalued at market rates.
Maintaining current terms is increasingly not a viable option. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is likely to pursue a strategy of either increasing its offer or lowering the minimum acceptance condition.

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Effissimo Rears Its Head

Effissimo reported a 5.87% ownership ratio in Pacific Industrial (7250 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,235.91 per share is 9.1% above the JPY2,050 MBO offer.
Effissimo buying significantly above terms is justifiable as the offer implied a P/B of 0.71x. Effissimo is agitating for either a bump or an opportunity to participate in the back-end.
With the offer closing on 8 September and shares trading 16.9% above terms, the Ogawas have little choice but to revise terms.

Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance

Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

Japan Post Bank- Adding Some Sizzle with a Move into Digital Currencies!

By Rikki Malik

The bank is starting to perform both absolutely and relative to both the Topix and the Megabanks
The core thesis is intact as Net Interest Income improves from a changed asset mix
The move into digital currencies is groundbreaking for this institution

Q1 Follow-Up – Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – August 25, 2025

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2026/3 results: Key consolidated figures included net sales of JPY 7,039 mn (+11.8% YoY), operating profit of JPY 493 mn (+73.8% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 509 mn (+59.9% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 321 mn (+77.8% YoY).
The DX & SI business, the package business, and the medical big data business all achieved double-digit increases in both net sales and profit YoY.
A record high is expected to continue, with net sales forecast at JPY 32,000 mn (+9.1% YoY), operating profit at JPY 3,590 mn (+12.6% YoY), ordinary profit at JPY 3,660 mn (+12.1% YoY), and net profit for the year at JPY 2,770 mn (+13.4% YoY).

MEC Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update

While MEC’s (4971 JP) FY25 (Dec year-end) 1H sales fell short of guidance by 2.2% to ¥9,387mil (+5.7% YoY), OP improved +3.3% YoY to ¥2,440mil, coming in 8.5% above the firm’s guidance of ¥2,250mil.
This was primarily due to less than expected SG&A spending – something the firm had flagged in an earlier release.
Net profit [NP] was revised from ¥1,450mil (-23.2% YoY) to ¥1,893mil (+0.2% YoY), thanks to the receipt of a subsidy from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry [METI] specifically for smaller sized companies to support growth investment.

Q1 Follow-Up – MIGALO HOLDINGS (5535 JP) – August 26, 2025

On August 7, MIGALO HOLDINGS Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2026 (April–June) earnings results.
Net sales increased 4.4% YoY to JPY 14,272 mn, and operating profit increased 23.1% YoY to JPY 975 mn.
As shown below, progress toward the Company’s full-year forecast got off to a roughly on-schedule start, with 23.8% of net sales and 34.8% of operating profit achieved.

What Is More Important in Promoting “Effective Investor Relations”?

Most companies appointed IR officers and hold some sort of briefing for analysts and investors, but briefings for overseas investors and explanations by the CEO himself are still insufficient.
It is valuable to have a direct Q&A session with the CEO about the feasibility of the business plan’s commitments and planned values, and the formulation process.
There are still many companies that are reluctant to hold meetings between independent outside directors and investors, and such companies are missing out on an opportunity to create value.

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Sep 03

Daily Brief Japan: Koei Tecmo Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Kyoto Financial Group , Shimano Inc, Air Water Inc, Asahi Intecc and more

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)
Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval
Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target
Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery
Air Water Inc. (TSE: 4088) – Diversified Japanese Industrial Gas & Healthcare Player
Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Strong FY25 Result; FY26 Guidance Initiation; New Business Plan Announced

[Japan ECM] Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) Needs to Sell Shares To Stay in Prime ($280mm Offering)

In December 2021, Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) announced a complex but lower-impact move to increase float share count in order to stay listed on TSE Prime.
Scheme: buyback from two holders plus CB issuance. Unfortunately, shares did not rise enough to convert the CBs so as of March 2025, the tradable share criteria was not met.
So now the two main holders are selling more shares and the company is diluting holders with new issuance to get float/tradable shares up with a US$280mm offering.

Koei Tecmo Placement: Some Non-Fundamental Selling; but Weak Fundamentals

Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) is looking to raise around US$270m from a primary and secondary placement.
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 37.6 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 6.1% of the shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Signed, Sealed, Delivered as Yageo Secures FEFTA Approval

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has finally secured FEFTA approval for its JPY7,130 offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The close of the tender offer has been extended to 18 September.
The Board has opposed the Yageo offer due to synergies, dis-synergies and cultural differences. However, on 29 August, the Board’s update suggested a possible pathway to recommend Yageo’s offer.
Despite Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s tendency to go against its declarations and increase its offer on several occasions, this time it is different. Minebea is likely to exit.

Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target

By Victor Galliano

Kyoto Financial has equity holdings relative to market cap of 135%, well above its larger cap Japanese peer banks, and amounting to a market value of over JPY1.1trillion
Management has stated that it is targeting JPY100bn+ of disposals in terms of market value by March 2029, but we believe that the market expected more
Sizeable disposals of equity holdings is Kyoto’s primary source of prospective shareholder value creation; aside from this, its fundamental attractions are limited and so we downgrade Kyoto to a neutral

Shimano (7309 JP) — Q2 Miss Resets Expectations; China Drag Masks EU Recovery

By Mark Chadwick

Q2 saw sales growth slow sharply (+8% yoy vs +16% in Q1) with OPM collapsing 600bps qoq; OP cut 34% sequentially.
China sales reset to long-term average, but FY25 outlook slashed to ¥58b (-42% vs prior) with limited disclosure on margin impact.
Stock down 25% post-results; buyback expansion (¥50b cap maintained) and long-only accumulation (First Eagle to 9.4%) provide near-term support.

Air Water Inc. (TSE: 4088) – Diversified Japanese Industrial Gas & Healthcare Player

Company: Founded in 2000 through the merger of Hoxan, Daido Sanso, and Kyodo Oxygen, Air Water is a diversified conglomerate spanning industrial gases, healthcare, food logistics, and energy.
Future Plans: Driving growth through semiconductor gases, UPS systems for AI/data centers, and hydrogen infrastructure, while scaling healthcare and logistics.
Valuation: Trades at ~7x EV/EBITDA and 11x forward P/E, a deep discount to global peers (Linde, Air Liquide at 14–17x EV/EBITDA).

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Strong FY25 Result; FY26 Guidance Initiation; New Business Plan Announced

By Tina Banerjee

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported 12% YoY revenue growth in FY25, driven by the continued strong trajectory of medical division. FY25 gross profit margin improved to 67.7% (FY24: 64.2%).
The company expects 9% YoY revenue growth to ¥131B in FY26, while gross profit margin is expected to contract 140bps to 66.3% due to the impact of the U.S. tariffs.
The company has set a goal of achieving revenue of ¥180B and operating profit margin of 28% in FY30. Strengthening profitability of existing businesses will help to meet this target.

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Sep 02

Daily Brief Japan: Lifedrink , Orion Breweries Limited, Nitto Boseki, Copper, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Nippon Steel Corporation, HIRANO TECSEED Co (Kinzoku), Raccoon Holdings, Inc. and more

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown
Lifedrink Placement: Cleanup Sale but Placement Properties Are Not Great
Orion Breweries IPO – Smaller Scale Warrants Discount
Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key
Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?
Orion Breweries IPO: Turning Local Strength into Growth Abroad
Continuing Parent-Subsidiary Listings Is Losing Value that Could Be Reliably Obtained
Nippon Steel (5401.T) – Financial and Strategic Analysis Post-U.S. Steel Acquisition
Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP): Research Update
Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

[Japan ECM] Lifedrink (2585) – Fast-Growing Beverage Seller Meets P.E. Firm Selldown

Today post-close, Lifedrink (2585 JP) announced the Sunrise PE funds which own 22% of the company will sell their stake in a clean-up offering with pricing in 8 days.
This offering comes 8 trading days after a new post-earnings all-time-high. At 24x ADV, the offering will increase Max Real World Float by 50+%.
There are some index and buyback supply/demand dynamics to note. It’s a heavy offering, so bullish/bearish may be a matter of horizon.

Lifedrink Placement: Cleanup Sale but Placement Properties Are Not Great

Lifedrink (2585 JP) is looking to raise around US$175m from a secondary placement.
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 20.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 18.4% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Orion Breweries IPO – Smaller Scale Warrants Discount

By Akshat Shah

Orion Breweries Limited’s (409A JT) operations span across alcoholic beverages, tourism and hotel businesses, aiming to raise ~US$126m in its Japan IPO via a mix of primary and secondary offerings.
Orion Breweries (OBL) has a strong Okinawa market position. Share of overseas sales has been growing (~23% of FY25 revenues), while profitability has also largely been steady.
In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comparison and IPO valuations.

Nitto Boseki (Nittobo, TSE:3110) – Expansion Unlocks AI-Linked Growth, but Execution Key

¥15 Bn investment to triple glass cloth capacity at Fukushima plant, with new operations starting Q4 FY2026.
Demand for low-dielectric and T-glass cloth in AI servers and semiconductors has outpaced supply, creating a strategic bottleneck and premium pricing.
Full earnings uplift from FY2027 onward, with projected revenue and EPS rising 12–15% post-expansion.

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.

Orion Breweries IPO: Turning Local Strength into Growth Abroad

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Orion Breweries Limited (409A JT) has become synonymous with Okinawa, combining heritage, loyalty, and local identity into a brand experience that larger rivals struggle to replicate.
The company benefits from Okinawa’s nearly 10 million annual visitors, turning tourism into both a sales driver and a powerful channel for brand amplification abroad.
The IPO offers attractive valuation versus peers, despite risks from MBO-related debt and potential share overhang from private equity owners.

Continuing Parent-Subsidiary Listings Is Losing Value that Could Be Reliably Obtained

Listed subsidiaries focusing on core businesses have higher capital profitability and stock valuations than parent companies, while parent companies with diversified businesses have lower than listed subsidiaries in the both.
By converting a listed subsidiary with high capital profitability into a wholly owned subsidiary, or by selling a listed subsidiary with low capital profitability, it could increase profitability of parent.
Even though this was expected, parent-subsidiary listings continue to this day (recently, more subsidiaries are listing on Standard Market), and the value that can be reliably obtained is being lost.

Nippon Steel (5401.T) – Financial and Strategic Analysis Post-U.S. Steel Acquisition

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, finalized in July 2025, significantly expands its North American presence but introduces margin and cost challenges.
Announced Plans: A $11 billion capex plan through 2028 targets a new EAF mill, Gary Works upgrades, and efficiency enhancements to drive synergies.
What to Watch: Monitor synergy execution, steel price trends, and U.S. Steel’s FCF generation to assess whether Nippon can offset margin dilution and balance sheet strain.

Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP): Research Update

Hirano Tecseed (hereinafter HT) reported FY25 Q1 OP of ¥821mil (+181.1-% YoY) on sales of ¥10,719mil (-11.4% YoY), which resulted in an OPM of 7.7%, a significant improvement from FY24 Q1’s OPM of 2.4%.
Sales were largely in line with expectation on the back of progress in working through order backlogs, especially in C&LM for secondary LiB.
Given successful passing through of cost increases to customers in the C&LM segment, FY25 1H guidance was revised from OP of ¥750mil (-26.8% YoY) on sales of ¥16,750mil (-31.3% YoY) to OP of ¥1,000mil (-2.4% YoY) on unchanged sales.

Raccoon Holdings, Inc. (3031 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue increased 2.3% YoY, with EC business up 6.6% and Financial business down 3.2% due to deconsolidation.
Operating profit decreased 19.6% YoY; SG&A expenses rose 3.8pp, driven by personnel and overseas shipping costs.
EC business revenue rose 6.6% YoY; Financial business payments handled increased 12.2% YoY, guarantees outstanding grew 14.9% YoY.

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Sep 01

Daily Brief Japan: Yutaka Giken, Nissan Motor, Silver, Olympus Corp and more

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen
ECM Weekly (1 September 2025)- Nissan, Metaplanet, Indigo, Laopu, Akeso, Mixue, Aux, Orion, Chery
Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage
Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Concerns Remain; Green Shoots Appear; Better To Wait and Watch

[Japan M&A] Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) TOB – Possibly the Most Offensively Low TOB Price I’ve Ever Seen

Honda Motor (7267 JP) and Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN) have arranged to buy Honda’s 69.7%-owned subsidiary Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) in a Tender Offer.
The transaction structure means Motherson buys Yutaka for less than net cash but even assuming Motherson pay minority TOB price for everything, TOB ex-net cash = 0.05x PBR, <1x EBITDA.
But they are paying less. They are paying ¥12.4bn less than net cash, and getting the other ¥58bn of net assets (¥23bn inventory, the rest in hard assets) for free.

ECM Weekly (1 September 2025)- Nissan, Metaplanet, Indigo, Laopu, Akeso, Mixue, Aux, Orion, Chery

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of company’s appear to be lining up to launch their IPOs in the coming month.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage

Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.

Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Concerns Remain; Green Shoots Appear; Better To Wait and Watch

By Tina Banerjee

Olympus Corp (7733 JP) witnessed revenue decline of 12% YoY to ¥206.5B (down 7% on Fx neutral) in Q1FY26 due to a high base effect coupled with delayed purchase decisions.
The company revised full-year forecasts mainly due to the impact of the U.S. tariffs and FDA import alerts.
Olympus entered into an agreement with Revival Healthcare Capital forming a joint venture company named Swan EndoSurgical, dedicated to developing an innovative endoluminal robotic system for less invasive therapeutic treatments.

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Aug 30

Daily Brief Japan: Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co, ROHM Co Ltd, Startia Holdings, Vega Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

In today’s briefing:

Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706 JP): Navigating Cyclical Metals While Riding AI Materials Growth
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – August 2025
Q1 Follow-Up – Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – August 18, 2025
Vega and Rivals Expand Home Decor E-Commerce in Japan
The Environment Necessary for Disclosure of Annual Securities Report 3 Weeks Prior to AGMs Is…

Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706 JP): Navigating Cyclical Metals While Riding AI Materials Growth

The Engineered Materials segment, driven by AI/5G-linked products like MicroThin™ and FaradFlex®, is poised for strong growth, offsetting near-term Metals segment weakness.
A forward valuation of ~17× P/E and ~7.5× EV/EBITDA, supported by strong growth in MicroThin™ and the scaling of FaradFlex®, is broadly in line with peers.
Key risks include metals price volatility, execution delays in FaradFlex®/MicroThin™ ramp-up, and intensifying competition from Asian copper foil and laminate producers.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India – August 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

We compile our picks across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.Our top picks in China Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and Midea Group (300 HK)
Post our insight Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future? , Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) is up 150% driven by delisting offer.
Our top picks in Japan areDenso Corp (6902 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India,it is Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN),Ashok Leyland (AL IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Q1 Follow-Up – Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – August 18, 2025

Q1 FY2026/3 Results review: Startia Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 (Apr– Jun) FY2026/3 results on August 8.
The Company reported net sales of JPY 5,636 mn (+7.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY 593 mn (+11.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 589 mn (+0.1% YoY), and net profit of JPY 402 mn (-17.9% YoY).
The decrease in net profit was attributable to an increase in corporate tax expense related to share-based compensation and does not reflect any change in the Company’s fundamentals.

Vega and Rivals Expand Home Decor E-Commerce in Japan

By Michael Causton

E-Commerce is a natural fit for furniture brands given the difficulty of taking purchases home from stores.
A number of start-ups are attracting investment and growing fast, but more established online players like Lowya are now opening stores given demand to try out furniture before purchase.
Industry estimates suggest the e-commerce home decor market is growing at twice the rate of the market overall.

The Environment Necessary for Disclosure of Annual Securities Report 3 Weeks Prior to AGMs Is…

There is a clear difference in awareness of pre-AGM disclosure in annual securities reports between companies that are targeted by overseas investors and those that are not.
Regarding the postponement of shareholder meetings, companies that have responded to investor needs are considering postponing their AGM dates, while most other companies are reluctant to do so.
In order for more companies to disclose their annual securities reports three weeks prior to AGMs and postpone their AGM dates, more companies need to be aware of this need.

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Aug 29

Daily Brief Japan: Carenet Inc, Orion Breweries Limited, Sumitomo Metal Mining, LY , Torex Semiconductor, Dydo Drinco Inc, Geechs Inc, Shimojima and more

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder
CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT
Orion Breweries Pre-IPO – Brewing Growth Beyond Okinawa, Headwinds Ahead
Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP): Recovery Driven by Resources
LY Finally Improves LINE Integration with Shopping Assets
Q1 Follow-Up – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – August 28, 2025
Dydo Drinco Inc (2590 JP): 1H FY01/26 flash update
Q1 Follow-Up: Geechs (7060 JP) – August 19, 2025
Q1 Follow-Up – SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – August 28, 2025

[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) – Opaque LBO/MBO Garners New Attention from Existing Shareholder

When EQT launched its deal for Carenet Inc (2150 JP) two weeks ago, I thought it opaque, and light, and strangely lacking in information which should be there.
It has not gotten clearer, though three days ago, the largest foreign shareholder as of the announcement reported they had lowered their position by 3.77% (4.22% of votes).
Then yesterday, someone else reported they had gone above 5%. The data implied in that filing suggests this may have legs. I’d buy through terms.

CareNet (2150 JP): Kaname Capital Is Potentially a Headache for EQT

Kaname Capital reported a 5.80% ownership ratio in Carenet Inc (2150 JP). Most of the shares were purchased on August 18 and 19, i.e., after the announcement of the offer.
Kaname has a recent history of agitating for a bump in the Proto Corp (4298 JP) tender offer. Kaname failed to prevent Proto from being privatised.
EQT will initially take a wait-and-see approach. If Kaname acquires a 10% stake, EQT will start to worry, but it has several options to respond.

Orion Breweries Pre-IPO – Brewing Growth Beyond Okinawa, Headwinds Ahead

By Akshat Shah

Orion Breweries Limited’s (409A JT) operations span across alcoholic beverages, tourism and hotel businesses, aiming to raise ~US$126m in its Japan IPO via a mix of primary and secondary offerings.
Orion Breweries (OBL) has a strong Okinawa market position (~40% beer share). Share of overseas sales has been growing (~23% of FY25 revenues), while profitability has also largely been steady.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP): Recovery Driven by Resources

FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.
August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.
EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).

LY Finally Improves LINE Integration with Shopping Assets

By Michael Causton

LY is finally moving to integrate LINE and Yahoo more effectively. It has taken too long.
LINE has 100 million users in Japan and yet until now, there has not been a decent shopping tab within the LINE app to encourage cross-use.
This is finally happening next month and, along with some AI-based UI and search improvements should help LY maintain parity with Rakuten if not surpass on growth rates.

Q1 Follow-Up – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – August 28, 2025

Despite tariffs and geopolitics reshaping global supply chains, the cyclical recovery in the semiconductor market is continuing, while customer inventories remain at low levels.
This coincides with a full-fledged recovery in PC demand driven by the October Windows 10 end-of-service PC replacement, and rapid diffusion of AI PCs (equipped with dedicated AI accelerators designed to optimize and accelerate AI tasks, providing improved performance and efficiency in handling GenAI workloads without relying on external servers or cloud services).
Q1 2025 Gartner worldwide PC shipments increased +4.8% YoY, with Q2 +4.4% (the US slowed to flat after frontloading ahead of tariffs), for 1H 2025 +4.7%, entering a full-fledged recovery.

Dydo Drinco Inc (2590 JP): 1H FY01/26 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY01/26, revenue was JPY117.7bn (+0.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.4bn (-39.5% YoY).
Domestic Beverage business revenue was JPY71.5bn (-2.0% YoY), with an operating loss of JPY2.0bn.
International Beverage business revenue was JPY28.8bn (+7.5% YoY), with operating profit of JPY3.1bn (+37.2% YoY).

Q1 Follow-Up: Geechs (7060 JP) – August 19, 2025

On August 8, 2025, Geechs Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) announced its Q1 FY2026/3 (Apr-Jun) earnings results.
Net sales rose 9% YoY to JPY 6,373 mn, EBITDA rose 84% YoY to JPY 197 mn, and operating profit rose 128% YoY to JPY 183 mn.
In addition to the steady expansion of the core Japan The IT Human Resources Matching Business (hereafter, “Japan IT HRM Biz”), improved profitability in the IT Human Resources Matching Business, Overseas (hereafter, “Overseas IT HRM Biz”) and the Seed Tech business also contributed.

Q1 Follow-Up – SHIMOJIMA (7482 JP) – August 28, 2025

Since this is the final year of the current 5-year MTP, focus growth initiatives for FY26/3 are shifting out with a view toward the next MTP.
Regarding cash allocation for investments and shareholder returns, in addition to FY26/3 capex plans for IT investment in various key systems, as well as renovation work on the Company’s head office, management announced a new 3-year plan to construct a new mother distribution center in Hyogo Prefecture to cover Western Japan at a total estimated cost of JPY 15bn (internal funds plus bank loans).
At the same time, it added DOE > 3.0% in addition to targeting a consolidated payout ratio of ≥ 50% to its policy on shareholder returns.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Aug 28

Daily Brief Japan: Shibaura Electronics, Metaplanet, Toyota Motor, Tsubakimoto Kogyo, Medical Data Vision and more

In today’s briefing:

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
Metaplanet Offering: 555m New Shares to Accelerate BTC Treasury Growth
Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance
Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) – Takeover Battle: Minebea Certainty Vs. YAGEO Premium
Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts
Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 JP) – Q1 FY2026/3 off to a Strong Start
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd (3902 JP): Research Update

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval

A day before the close of Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s offer, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has strategically stated that it expects to receive FEFTA approval by 10 September.
Minebea had tried to convince shareholders that its lower offer provides an opportunity to monetise their shares quickly and with certainty. This line of reasoning is no longer credible.
As Minebea will not increase its offer or extend the closing date, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)‘s Board will have to recommend Yageo’s offer.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold

Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”

Metaplanet Offering: 555m New Shares to Accelerate BTC Treasury Growth

By Mark Chadwick

Metaplanet launches international equity raise of up to 555m shares, potentially almost doubling share count, targeting approximately ¥130b in proceeds subject to pricing and demand.
Proceeds earmarked primarily for Bitcoin purchases, potentially adding 4,800–26,800 BTC to treasury holdings, accelerating NAV growth and reinforcing positioning as a Bitcoin balance sheet company.
Suspension of 20th–22nd series stock acquisition rights through September ensures offering stability and clears path for subsequent preferred share issuance capacity.

Metaplanet Placement: US$1bn Punt; Dependent on Bitcoin Performance

Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.4 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 23.7% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) – Takeover Battle: Minebea Certainty Vs. YAGEO Premium

Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) is at the center of a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and Taiwan’s YAGEO.
Minebea has bid ¥6,200/share with 23% locked in and management support, while YAGEO counters at ¥7,130/share, pending FEFTA clearance.
Financial investors may wait for FEFTA clarity and lean YAGEO for price, while risk‑averse or aligned holders favor Minebea’s certainty.

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: After three consecutive up weeks, Toyota (7203 JP) / Toyota ADR (TM US) now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.
Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.
Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.

Tsubakimoto Kogyo (8052 JP) – Q1 FY2026/3 off to a Strong Start