In today’s briefing:
- Merger Arb Mondays (03 Aug) – Taiyo, NS United, Future, Kakaku, Shinko Shoji, Dida, ASM, Accent
- [Japan Buyback, But Not] 7&I (3382) To Buy Back ¥400bn from Market, Sell ¥300bn to Crossholders
- Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined
- Curator’s Cut: Korea Beyond Memory, SHEIN’s Hong Kong Bow & TOPIX’s Tailwind for Banks
- Primer: Togami Electric Mfg (6643 JP) – Aug 2026
- FANUC (6954 JP) | In Line Quarter; Valuation Leaves Little Room for Excitement
- Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): The Correction Did Our Work — Upgrade to BULLISH on the AI Re-Acceleration
- Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida
- Keyence (6861 JP): Not Threatened by AI
- Itochu Takes Control of Champion
Merger Arb Mondays (03 Aug) – Taiyo, NS United, Future, Kakaku, Shinko Shoji, Dida, ASM, Accent
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Ns United Kaiun Kaisha (9110 JP), OFX Group (OFX AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU).
- Lowest spreads: Accent Group (AX1 AU), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Future Corporation (4722 JP), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Dida (2559 HK).
[Japan Buyback, But Not] 7&I (3382) To Buy Back ¥400bn from Market, Sell ¥300bn to Crossholders
- On Friday after the close, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback scheduled for Monday morning for ¥400bn, worth 8+% of shares outstanding.
- That’s big. But the seller is likely to be SMBC Nikko. And they will then spend much of the next year buying back ¥400bn of shares on-market.
- Separately, 7&i announced an alliance with Softbank Corp, PayPay, and Sumitomo Mitsui Card. They will buy ¥100bn each. Net, this means a 2% buyback IF successful. More if not.
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined
- Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) ended its consideration of the NSSK offer due to concerns about whether NSSK could secure FEFTA approval, given its reliance on foreign investors for financing.
- This event sets a precedent, as a Japanese PE-led bid is not a credible shield against FEFTA rejection. Japanese regulators are looking through to ultimate ownership/control.
- Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break should be around 10%.
Curator’s Cut: Korea Beyond Memory, SHEIN’s Hong Kong Bow & TOPIX’s Tailwind for Banks
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut – a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,600+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
- In this cut, we go looking for value in Korea beyond memory, weigh SHEIN’s long-awaited IPO, and trace how TOPIX’s reshuffle could life small-cap Japanese banks.
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.
Primer: Togami Electric Mfg (6643 JP) – Aug 2026
- Togami Electric is a long-established Japanese manufacturer of electrical power distribution and control equipment, poised to benefit from domestic grid modernization and the global push for electrification.
- The company has demonstrated a strong growth track record, with a 3-year net income CAGR of 23.13% and a consistently growing dividend, reflecting solid operational execution and shareholder-friendly policies.
- While the company exhibits strong fundamentals and operates in a market with favorable tailwinds, its valuation appears moderate. Key risks include dependency on the Japanese domestic market and potential for increased competition from larger, global players.
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FANUC (6954 JP) | In Line Quarter; Valuation Leaves Little Room for Excitement
- Q1 results in line; full-year OP guidance ¥218bn, ~3.5% below street consensus
- Order intake surging +37% YoY signals demand recovery, but is priced in at 22x EV/EBITDA vs. 10-year average 17x
- Balance sheet remains overcapitalised; no new announcement on capital returns
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): The Correction Did Our Work — Upgrade to BULLISH on the AI Re-Acceleration
- Record Q1 sales ¥732bn (+33% YoY) at a 28.9% operating margin; EPS beat consensus but revenue missed 3.7%. Profitability, not the top line, drove the print.
- Management raised H1 sales to ¥1,620bn and lifted the WFE market view to $150B+/$190B+ for CY26/27, with H2 guided stronger; full-year guidance still withheld to Q2.
- We upgrade to BULISH (from NEUTRAL). PT ¥75,000 = 48x FY2027E EPS ¥1,560, ~35% upside — the premium multiple justified by AI-led WFE re-acceleration and TEL’s leading-edge mix.
Asia-Pac M&A [July 2026 Wrap]: Dentsu Soken, Perpetual, OFX, Ns United Kaiun, Gabia, SK Signet, Dida
- For July 2026, ten new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~51%, and a year-to-date average of ~48%.
- The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.
Keyence (6861 JP): Not Threatened by AI
- A rebound in demand from China and the weak yen supported June quarter sales and profit growth. But further yen weakness seems cannot be assumed.
- AI contributes to factory automation, but cannot replace the granular knowledge of the company’s sales-engineers.
- The shares have rebounded to within 4% of their early May high. At 35X our EPS estimate for FY Mar-28, they look reasonably valued.
Itochu Takes Control of Champion
- Itochu has acquired Champion’s Japanese licensing and distribution rights, partnering with digital retail specialist Inglewood to run the brand.
- Current retail sales stand at ¥27 billion, but Itochu is betting on a 30% jump within three years
- Itochu and Inglewood hope to achieve this through an omnichannel overhaul and Inglewood’s e-commerce and AI-driven retail platform.
