Category

Japan

Daily Brief Japan: Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation, Soft99 Corp, Toto Ltd, Ohba Co Ltd, Poletowin Pitcrew Holdings, Torex Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer
  • TOTO (5332 JP) | Beyond China
  • Ohba (9765 Jp) – Q4 Follow-Up
  • Poletowin Pitcrew Holdings: 1H FY01/26 flash update and revision of full-year earnings forecasts
  • Torex Semiconductor (6616 Jp) – September 12, 2025


Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float

By Travis Lundy

  • In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure. 
  • The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
  • Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer

By Arun George

  • Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465. 
  • The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
  • Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders. 

TOTO (5332 JP) | Beyond China

By Mark Chadwick

  • Toto stock price -16% over past year vs index +24% as China growth story collapses. Restructuring China ops; targeting breakeven FY3/27
  • New growth drivers: US capacity buildout underpins Americas sales growth, while electrostatic chucks beneficiary of SPE spend
  • Stock trading at 30% discount to historical average and deep discount to global peers

Ohba (9765 Jp) – Q4 Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Q4 FY2025/5 Results | On July 10, 2025, OHBA (hereinafter, “the Company”) announced its Q4 FY2025/5 results. The full year figures saw an increase in both sales and profits.
  • In the three-month period of Q4, orders recovered mainly in the design field, with a steady accumulation of orders in the core construction consulting business.
  • Although the Company projects lower sales in FY2026/5 due to the absence of one-off projects from a year earlier, it plans to report its 15th consecutive year of operating profit growth, underpinned by improved profitability.

Poletowin Pitcrew Holdings: 1H FY01/26 flash update and revision of full-year earnings forecasts

By Shared Research

  • FY01/26 revenue reached 91.3% of forecast, with losses at all profit levels due to Media Contents withdrawal.
  • Revised FY01/26 forecast predicts JPY49.7bn revenue, JPY1.1bn operating profit, and JPY316mn net income.
  • Domestic Solutions revenue rose 5.0% YoY; Overseas Solutions increased 8.0% YoY; Media Contents declined 31.9% YoY.

Torex Semiconductor (6616 Jp) – September 12, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • As can be seen from the exhibit below, as of May 31, 2025, TOREX had 1 unmet criterion out of the criteria required to maintain listing on the TSE prime market.
  • Market capitalization of tradable shares of JPY 8.12bn was below the requirement of JPY 10.0bn or more. The number of tradable shares subtracts: 1) the number of shares held by major shareholders who individually own 10% or more of the number of listed shares (however the number of shares held by investment trusts or pension trusts are included), 2) the number of shares held by officers, etc., 3) the number of treasury shares, and 4) the number of shares held by common banks, insurance companies and business corporations in Japan.
  • The tradable shares ratio is the number of tradable shares ÷ the number of listed shares. Tradable market capitalization is the tradable shares ratio × market capitalization.

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Daily Brief Japan: Metaplanet, Nisshinbo Holdings, Resonac Holdings , Kobe Steel Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?
  • Can Nisshinbo (3105) Become a Superstock?
  • Resonac Holdings – Strategic Transition and Re-Rating Potential
  • Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Japanese Industrial with Stable Steel and Engineering Exposure
  • Many Companies that Have Seen Their Founding Family’s Stake Decline but Retain CEO Have Challenges


[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 27 August, Metaplanet (3350 JP) announced a large overseas offering in line with a pause in the 20th Warrant Issuance program it had outstanding. The goal? Buy more bitcoin.
  • Shares had been ¥890 on the 27th, trading higher through the 29th. The offering priced at ¥553. Down 38%. Ouch. But it meant index upweight due to higher share count.
  • Friday post-close, global index provider M _ _ _ announced a consultation on digital asset treasury companies, suspending the upweight for Metaplanet. Watch out MSTR!

Can Nisshinbo (3105) Become a Superstock?

By Michael Allen

  • Nisshinbo is aiming for a radical transformation from old-fashioned textile business to high-tech, aiming for 80% revenue from defense and high-end tech within 3-5 years 
  • New President Yasuji Ishii promises swift decision-making and a comprehensive restructuring plan by February 2026, targeting 10% RoE, up from a 8% deficit at the trough.
  • Nisshinbo trades at 70% of book value but should easily trade up to 1.5x if it achieves its Roe target.

Resonac Holdings – Strategic Transition and Re-Rating Potential

By Rahul Jain

  • Resonac continues to reshape its portfolio, scaling growth materials while rationalising legacy chemicals and electrodes.
  • FY2025 guidance appears conservative, particularly on profit, leaving room for upside if current momentum is sustained.
  • Valuation & risk: Shares trade at a discount to global peers, with re-rating potential contingent on execution and balance sheet discipline.

Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Japanese Industrial with Stable Steel and Engineering Exposure

By Rahul Jain

  • Kobelco has delivered ~20–25% returns over the past three months, reflecting investor interest in stable domestic steel demand and growing overseas engineering orders.
  • Q1–Q2 FY2025 showed steady operational performance with stable steel margins and moderate growth in engineering and construction segments, supporting management’s guidance for the full year.
  • Stock trades at a modest forward P/E of ~7× with an attractive dividend yield (~4%), though risks include steel margin volatility, global semi-cycle fluctuations, and potential project execution delays.

Many Companies that Have Seen Their Founding Family’s Stake Decline but Retain CEO Have Challenges

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies competing in global market are often compared in profitability and practices with global competitors, so they would have moved to reduce cross-shareholdings earlier than companies focused on domestic market.
  • There is little improvement in capital profitability, but lower number of cross-held shares will reduce the number of companies whose proxy votings are influenced by cross-shareholdings, which will improve governance.
  • Companies that maintain top management despite decline in the founding family’s stake tend to be targets of activist investors because they have problems with both corporate governance and capital profitability.

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Daily Brief Japan: Soft99 Corp, Hitachi Ltd, ENEOS Holdings, Japan Steel Works, LIFULL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
  • Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments
  • ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped
  • JSW: Backlog 2× Sales, Nuclear Edge Drives Upside
  • Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025


Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
  • The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.  
  • The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid. 

[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

By Travis Lundy

  • In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
  • On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
  • The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments

By Scott Foster

  • More than $1 billion to be invested in electric power equipment and railway car production, plus a new automation center, to counter tariffs and support long-term expansion in the U.S.
  • The rising share of sales accounted for by smart factory and other digital technologies should lead to higher profit margins and ROIC over the next several years. 
  • The share price has dropped 13% from its recent high to 26x EPS guidance for FY Mar-26. Buy on weakness for long-term growth. The main risk is a slowing economy.

ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

By Rahul Jain

  • Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
  • Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
  • Valuation & Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.

JSW: Backlog 2× Sales, Nuclear Edge Drives Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Macro: Nuclear restarts (Tomari-3, Aug-25) and record defense budgets underpin demand for JSW’s forgings.
  • Results: Q1 FY25 showed solid YoY growth (revenue +7%, OP +21%) with margins lifted by defense/nuclear.
  • Valuation/Risks: Shares trade at ~26× P/E on a ¥508 bn backlog; upside rests on execution, with delays the key risk.

Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In Q3 FY2025/9, LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 21,059 mn, up 7.1% YoY and operating profit of JPY 3,001 mn, up 23.3% YoY .
  • Operating profit rose substantially, backed by strong performance in the HOME’S Services segment.
  • Excluding the one-time gain on sale recorded in the same period a year earlier, operating profit doubled on an actual basis, underscoring a notable improvement in profitability. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Mitsubishi Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst


Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

By Jay Cameron

  • Mitsubishi Electric’s $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.
  • This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.
  • The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric’s stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.

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Daily Brief Japan: Daido Steel, 3 D Matrix Ltd, Nikkei 225, Freebit Co Ltd, Kaken Pharmaceutical, SanBio Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Daido Steel – Specialty Strength with Strategic Upside
  • 3 D Matrix Ltd (7777 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update
  • Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?
  • Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update
  • Kaken Pharma (4521 JP): FY26 Starts on a Bleak Note as Expected, Growth Pangs to Stay for Now
  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): 1H FY01/26 flash update


Daido Steel – Specialty Strength with Strategic Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Leading Japanese specialty steelmaker with core exposure to auto, stainless/alloys, magnets, and industrial components.
  • Mid-Term strategy centers on higher-margin growth products (SPE stainless, magnets, aerospace forgings) supported by new VAR and forging capacity.
  • Valuations & Risks: Trades at a forward P/E compressing to ~5× by FY28E, but cyclical demand swings and raw material volatility remain key risks.

3 D Matrix Ltd (7777 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue increased 47.7% YoY to JPY2.2bn, driven by US sales growth of JPY1.2bn (+87.7% YoY).
  • Recurring profit reached JPY939mn, improving JPY1.7bn YoY, aided by foreign exchange gains of JPY938mn.
  • R&D expenses rose 18.9% YoY to JPY168mn; SG&A expenses increased 22.0% YoY to JPY1.5bn.

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.
  • Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.
  • Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.

Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY04/26, the company reported revenue of JPY15.2bn, operating profit of JPY1.7bn, and net income of JPY1.1bn.
  • Business support services for MVNOs expanded, resulting in revenue growth of 12.7% YoY and operating profit increase of 53.3% YoY.
  • Revenue for 5G Homestyle service increased 11.3% YoY to JPY6.9bn, while operating profit rose 19.3% YoY.

Kaken Pharma (4521 JP): FY26 Starts on a Bleak Note as Expected, Growth Pangs to Stay for Now

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) witnessed 3% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY26 to ¥18.9B as overseas pharmaceutical and crop protection sales while domestic market remained under pressure.
  • Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop 3% to ¥4.4B on patent cliff, while Ecclock helped drive revenue growing 18% YoY to ¥803M.
  • Kaken reiterated FY26 guidance where it expects revenue to fall 6% YoY to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs in the form of drug price revision and generic competition.

SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): 1H FY01/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY01/26, the company reported no operating revenue, with an operating loss of JPY1.9bn and R&D expenses increasing by 31.5% YoY.
  • Non-operating expenses totaled JPY596mn, primarily due to foreign exchange losses and financing fees, leading to a recurring loss of JPY2.5bn.
  • The company forecasts a FY01/26 operating loss of JPY3.9bn and a net loss of JPY4.0bn, influenced by manufacturing costs and foreign exchange losses.

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Daily Brief Japan: Mandom Corp, Fuji Oil Co Ltd, Digital Holdings Inc, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, GiG Works, i-mobile Co Ltd, Milbon Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO – Light Price, Open-Ish Register, Tough to Take Over, Could Do Fun
  • Fuji Oil (5017 JP): Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY480
  • [Japan M&A] Digital HD (2389 JP) MBO Takeunder Is Optically Bad, A Little Light, But Tough to Beat
  • China’s Tire Sector Shifts To Next Gear In Global Consolidation
  • How Long Can a Model Where Profit Is Helped by Low Growth in Labor Cost and Depreciation Continue?
  • GiG Works (2375 JP): Q3 FY10/25 flash update
  • i-mobile Co Ltd (6535 JP): Full-year FY07/25 flash update
  • Milbon Co., LTD (4919 JP): Research Update – 11 SEPTEMBER 2025


[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO – Light Price, Open-Ish Register, Tough to Take Over, Could Do Fun

By Travis Lundy

  • On 10 September, the founding Nishimura family, the PE Firm CVC, and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) agreed that the first two could take over the latter at 4.9x Mar28 EBITDA.
  • A cocktail napkin calculation of expected leverage suggests the equity check is buying this at 5x average Mar27-28 free cash flow. That’s cheap for a growing company.
  • The register is open enough to cause problems but not open enough to allow a clean hostile bid by a strategic. But still open enough for someone to have fun.

Fuji Oil (5017 JP): Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY480

By Arun George

  • Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) at JPY480, a 44.1% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer implies a P/B of 0.54x, it is reasonable as it is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges. 
  • Nevertheless, the offer is susceptible to a bump as it is far from a knockout bid, and Fuji Oil previously had activists on the register.  

[Japan M&A] Digital HD (2389 JP) MBO Takeunder Is Optically Bad, A Little Light, But Tough to Beat

By Travis Lundy


China’s Tire Sector Shifts To Next Gear In Global Consolidation

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sailun revives Bridgestone’s idle TBR plant, breaks ground in Egypt  
  •  Chinese pneumatic tire exports climb 4.6% in value in H1 2025  
  • Jiangsu General ramps up projects in Thailand and Cambodia  

How Long Can a Model Where Profit Is Helped by Low Growth in Labor Cost and Depreciation Continue?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • As lack of investment, including in human capital, is recognized as a factor behind the lack of growth, there’re plans to enhance disclosure of human capital in annual securities reports.
  • While labor share of large companies has fallen 1.3 ppt over the past year, OP margins increased only 0.3 ppt. It’s necessary to produce products with high gross profit margins.
  • Unable to make bold investments to create higher added-value products, companies instead use cash-flows for shareholders return without increasing cash reserves, resulting in high level of cash on hand.

GiG Works (2375 JP): Q3 FY10/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • GiG Works reported a recurring loss due to lower YoY revenue and JPY107mn in crypto asset valuation losses.
  • System Solutions and Sharing Economy businesses saw YoY revenue and profit increases, while On-demand Economy declined.
  • Revenue from shared office services grew 23.5% YoY, with registered members increasing by 32.9% YoY.

i-mobile Co Ltd (6535 JP): Full-year FY07/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY07/25, the company reported revenue of JPY21.5bn (+14.9% YoY) and operating profit of JPY4.1bn (+16.5% YoY).
  • The Consumer Service segment’s FY07/25 revenue was JPY19.1bn (+19.5% YoY), with a segment profit of JPY4.0bn (+16.7% YoY).
  • For FY07/26, the company projects revenue of JPY22.0bn (+2.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY4.5bn (+8.9% YoY).

Milbon Co., LTD (4919 JP): Research Update – 11 SEPTEMBER 2025

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Milbon Co., Ltd (4919 JP) reported FY25 (Dec year-end) 1H earnings with a gross profit [GP] of ¥15,502mil (-1.6% YoY) and operating profit [OP] of ¥1,938mil (-39.0% YoY) on sales of ¥24,807mil (+1.1% YoY).
  • RP declined -44.3% YoY to ¥1,853mil, due mainly to net FOREX losses (-¥120mil).
  • The 1H results fell short of the firm’s sales and OP guidance by -4.2% and -31.0%, respectively due to (1) a decline in GP due to weaker-than-expected sales (-¥707mil) and (2) the deterioration of the GPM on the back of inventory valuation losses (approx. -¥454mil).

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Daily Brief Japan: Toei Animation, Mandom Corp, Metaplanet, Trial Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
  • [Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
  • Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO
  • Metaplanet (3350) – 50% Dilution or 50% Accretion?
  • Trial: Bringing Competition to Convenience Stores?


Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP

By Nicholas Tan

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) ’s shareholder, Fuji Media, is looking to raise around US$210m from a secondary placement.
  • The deal is a large one to digest, representing 41.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 4.9% of the shares outstanding.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been

By Travis Lundy


Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO

By Arun George

  • Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
  • The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
  • The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  

Metaplanet (3350) – 50% Dilution or 50% Accretion?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Metaplanet raises JPY 205bn via discounted share issue, doubling Bitcoin holdings to ~32,000 BTC and reframing investor focus toward Bitcoin-per-share growth.
  • Despite 50% dilution, BTC yield per share rises ~50% in Q3, positioning Metaplanet as a structural proxy for digital monetary assets.
  • Enhanced balance sheet flexibility should enable a further JPY 125bn raise in Q4, reinforcing the company’s long-term accumulation strategy and premium valuation.

Trial: Bringing Competition to Convenience Stores?

By Michael Causton

  • Trial HD’s acquisition of Seiyu massively expands its interests in and around Tokyo and the discounter has wasted no time rolling out its Trial GO stores in the capital. 
  • These stores offer fresh food at about half the price of typical convenience stores, thanks to low costs and smart tech, and will rapidly intensify competition.
  • If the format is successful, it would disrupt both the city centre supermarket and convenience store chains.

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Daily Brief Japan: Sony Financial Group, Orion Breweries, Japan Business Systems , Isuzu Motors, Tokyo Electron, Daifuku Co Ltd, Tekken Corp, Nippon Shinyaku, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff – ‘Maybe’ BUYBACK Complicates Planning
  • Orion Breweries IPO – Deal Upsized; Lower End Looks Digestible
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)
  • Long Isuzu (7202 JP) Vs. Short Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage in Japanese Autos Targets 10%
  • Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth
  • Daifuku (6383 JP): Global Automation Leader with Structural AI Tailwinds
  • Q1 Follow-Up – TEKKEN CORPORATION (1815 JP) – August 27, 2025
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Flurry of Concerns Going Ahead; Revenue Steady for Now; Guidance Revised
  • How Long Will the ‘Parent-Subsidiary Listing Prolongation Scheme’ Work?


[Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff – ‘Maybe’ BUYBACK Complicates Planning

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
  • Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
  • The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.

Orion Breweries IPO – Deal Upsized; Lower End Looks Digestible

By Akshat Shah

  • Orion Breweries’ (409A JP) operations span across alcoholic beverages, tourism and hotel businesses. It aims to raise around US$162m in its Japan IPO which could increase to US$196m (including over-allotment).
  • Orion Breweries (OBL) has a strong Okinawa market position. Share of overseas sales has been growing (~23% of FY25 revenues), while profitability has also largely been steady.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we talk about the pricing updates and IPO valuations.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.
  • Separately, Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.

Long Isuzu (7202 JP) Vs. Short Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage in Japanese Autos Targets 10%

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Isuzu (7202 JP) vs. Suzuki (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Isuzu (7202 JP) and short Suzuki (7269 JP) targets a 10% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tokyo Electron — Navigating the Cycle, Leveraged to AI/HBM Growth

By Rahul Jain

  • Steady past performance, soft Q1: TEL doubled revenues and EPS since FY2021 with margins near 30%, but Q1 FY2026 showed a YoY dip as NAND/DRAM digestion hit.
  • Expansion plans: ¥700 bn capex and ¥1.5 tn R&D by FY2029 will lift capacity ~+80%, aligned with AI logic and HBM-driven WFE growth.
  • Valuation & growth: At ~18× forward P/E, TEL trades fair vs Lam/Applied but at a steep discount to ASML/KLA, offering upside if recovery unfolds.

Daifuku (6383 JP): Global Automation Leader with Structural AI Tailwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Business: Designs and integrates intralogistics, cleanroom, airport, and automotive automation systems.
  • Expanding AI-driven logistics and semiconductor cleanroom solutions, with recurring service growth.
  • Earnings projected to grow mid-teens CAGR to FY27E, with multiples compressing from ~25× P/E / 15× EV/EBITDA to ~20× / 12×, justifying a structural premium.

Q1 Follow-Up – TEKKEN CORPORATION (1815 JP) – August 27, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On August 7, TEKKEN CORPORATION (hereinafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2026/3 consolidated financial results.
  • Net sales rose 0.7% YoY to JPY 44,370 mn, and operating profit surged 536% YoY to JPY 1,712 mn.
  • The significant profit growth was driven by earlier-than-expected securing of design change orders in both the civil engineering and architectural construction businesses, together with contributions from the real estate business. 

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Flurry of Concerns Going Ahead; Revenue Steady for Now; Guidance Revised

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1QFY26, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) revenue grew 1% YoY to ¥39.5B and operating profit stood at ¥10.1B (down 9% YoY) as company incurred forex losses.
  • Viltepso witnessed slowing in US. Licensing income increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi. Newly launched drugs like Vyxeos and Fintepla showed promise.
  • FY26 guidance revised downwards taking into account FDA’s rejection of BLA for CAP-1002. The company reduced FY26 revenue guidance to ¥166B from ¥173B.

How Long Will the ‘Parent-Subsidiary Listing Prolongation Scheme’ Work?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Investors are disappointed that this is not put forward as a management strategy to resolve the parent-subsidiary listing, but the TSE believes that friendly disclosure is the solution.
  • It’s problematic for parent company’s shareholders to allow the parent’s resources to be used and to leave part of subsidiary’s profits outside the company for a long period of time.
  • For both the parent company and its subsidiaries, this is a lost opportunity to shift to management that can create more value. It’ill only delay the shift to value-creating management.

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Daily Brief Japan: Shift Inc, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Nidec Corp, Kioxia Holdings , JX Advanced Metals, ASICS Corp, S & B Foods Inc, Nisshin Fudosan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎
  • [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT
  • [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses
  • Nidec: Navigating Regulatory Challenges and Unlocking Value
  • Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot
  • ASICS (7936) | Growth Trajectory Intact, Optionality Expanding
  • S&B Foods Inc (2805) – Sunday, Jun 8, 2025
  • Nisshin Group (8881) – Sunday, Jun 8, 2025


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

By Brian Freitas


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

By Travis Lundy


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

By Travis Lundy


Nidec: Navigating Regulatory Challenges and Unlocking Value

By Jay Cameron

  • Urgent Regulatory Deadline: Nidec faces a critical deadline of September 26, 2025. Meeting this deadline is crucial to avoid regulatory consequences, including potential “Security on Alert” designation or stock suspension.
  • Underlying Strength Amidst Issues: Despite recent compliance issues that have impacted its stock, Nidec maintains a strong position as a global leader in electric motors with diversified revenue, projected growth.
  • Potential for Rebound: The current low valuation, may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors if the company successfully addresses its governance issues and restores investor confidence.

Kioxia (285A JP): Undervalued NAND Pure-Play Levered to AI-Driven Enterprise SSD Growth

By Rahul Jain

  • Q1 FY25 revenue fell 20% YoY, but enterprise SSD strength kept EBITDA positive and margins above trough levels.
  • Management guides for a strong sequential rebound in Q2–Q3 on AI-driven enterprise demand and normalized PC/smartphone inventories.
  • Kioxia trades at ~3–4× EV/EBITDA vs peers on 9–12×, despite higher NAND margins, with the gap driven by cyclicality, tech lag, and shareholder overhang.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
  • Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
  • Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.

ASICS (7936) | Growth Trajectory Intact, Optionality Expanding

By Mark Chadwick

  • Performance Running momentum intact: ~10% global market share, outgrowing Nike, with scope for further share gains.
  • Adjacent categories underpenetrated globally; restructuring complete, positioning for accelerated US/Asia expansion.
  • Lifestyle brands (SportStyle, Onitsuka Tiger) compounding fast (+40%+ YoY), higher margins, could be the real long-term profit driver.

S&B Foods Inc (2805) – Sunday, Jun 8, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • S&B Foods, established in 1923, is a leading Japanese manufacturer of spices and condiments with around 3,000 in-house SKUs.
  • The company pioneered the creation of curry powder in Japan, launching the ‘Japanese curry’ category.
  • S&B’s iconic ‘Golden Curry’ line is well-known in Japan and is expanding its presence in international markets as it nears its 100th anniversary.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Nisshin Group (8881) – Sunday, Jun 8, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • The author identifies Nisshin Group as a promising undervalued Japanese investment in the real estate sector.
  • Nisshin operates in Tokyo, focusing on residential condominiums and rental properties, with a solid business model and consistent profitability.
  • Despite stagnant stock performance over two decades, Nisshin has shown modest growth and improving margins, supported by a committed management team.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Japan: Marubeni Corp, Metaplanet, Pacific Industrial, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns
  • ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery
  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai
  • [Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms
  • Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?


Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns

By Rahul Jain

  • Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.
  • Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.
  • Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.

ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front,  a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
  • On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive. 

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Sep) – Pacific Industrial, Ashimori, Shibaura, Kangji Medical, Chery, Hesai

By Arun George


[Japan M&A] Pacific Industrial (7250) The MBO Is Extended After Effissimo Buys Above Terms

By Travis Lundy

  • Activist-Ish-Y investor Effissimo reported Friday they had a 6.68% stake as of the end of August. 
  • Their average price is ¥2,253 which is 10% through the price the family Bidco was bidding (¥2,050). 
  • As this hasn’t traded below terms at any point since announcement, an extension was likely. This morning, we got one. We’ll get another one before it’s done, BUT…

Will Change to Annual Securities Report Improve in % of Female Managers and Gender Wage Gap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Information regarding % of female managers and gender wage gap, which were previously required to be disclosed in annual securities reports, will move to the “Sustainability Philosophy and Initiatives” section.
  • This change in description will make issues such as % of female managers and gender wage gap more clear, thereby improving the inconsistencies with the company’s goals and policies.
  • Since disclosure of compensation incentives for employees other than board members will be required, this may encourage more companies to introduce compensation incentives for non-board members employees.

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