Macro

• China’s rising export growth to Europe in November demonstrates base effects around a steady trend that predates US tariff increases. It isn’t about dumping.
• Avoidance measures remain rife, with transhipping through Vietnam not dented by the provisions in their US trade deal. Effective tariff rates aren’t rising belatedly.
• Profit-maximising companies still seem to be working around US measures, keeping the impact on inflation and growth smaller than many other economists feared.

Highlights

• Export value rises despite flat shipments

• Corporate earnings buoyed by firm latex prices

• Industry turning to technology and market diversification

According to Vietnam Customs, rubber exports in the first nine months of the year totalled 1.3 million tons worth US$2.32 billion, almost unchanged in volume from a year earlier but up 10.8% in value.

• The ‘year-end’ book squaring ahead of Thanksgiving caused a mid-month wobble around the November options expiry, which in turn caused some panic among leveraged traders, albeit not of the April variety.

• The FOMO trades of unprofitable tech and everything Crypto related were hit particularly hard and while the $ briefly moved back above 100 on the trade weighted index, the pain trade at the broader market level appeared to have gone by end month.

• A Rip Van Winkle analysis of November would have concluded that nothing much happened, but a lot did.

• Crude oil futures were moving sideways on Tuesday as markets steadied after early-week losses, although surplus fears continued to drive sentiment.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.01/b (2000 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $62.49/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.35/b against a previous close of $58.88/b.
• Forecasts of a surplus of at least 2 million bpd in the new year continue to weigh heavily on sentiment, despite OPEC+ pausing output hikes in Q1 and the threat to Russian supplies from sanctions.

• Cover Story: Chinese Medicine Injections Face Rigorous Regulation for the First Time
• China Opens New Insurance Path for High-Cost Drugs
• China’s Crypto Crackdown Targets Tokenized Real-World Assets
• China’s Crypto Crackdown Targets Tokenized Real-World Assets

• International reserves grew marginally in November to 50.215 bn $ from 50.071 bn $ in October. Since January, reserves have grown by 6.2 %.

• The net foreign asset position of the banking sector at large continues to improve and is up 7.5 % in EGP terms to 1,070,957 trillion EGP and up 9 % in $ terms month-to-month.

• The improvement is more pronounced for commercial banks, +10.5 % in EGP, foreign assets grew while liabilities stayed flat. Remittances, tourism, portfolio inflows all contributing. 

• In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
• Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
• However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

• Precious metals sub index has surged by 62% year to date, base metals are up 11%, oil has declined by 16%, and agricultural livestock index has been flat
• Forecasting broadly flat returns for 2026, with declines in energy offset by price increases in metals and agriculture
• Gold price expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce by end of 2026, driven by supply inelasticity, central bank demand, and investor inflows

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• The U.S. Administration has retreated from the heated rhetoric and trade initiatives at the beginning of its trade war.  U.S. officials’ conciliatory approach to China starkly contrasts to earlier policies.
• Going into next year’s midterm elections, the Trump Administration will seek to maintain stable markets and downplay its global trade war, benefiting China.
• Taiwan will continue to present headline risks for markets as the influential neocons use the issue to stoke tensions toward a cold war against China.

• Global gas prices often diverge sharply as Henry Hub and TTF respond to regional conditions, unlike WTI and Brent, which move together due to seamless global crude market integration.
• Recently, Henry Hub surged while TTF declined, highlighting how contrasting storage conditions, weather patterns, and demand fundamentals create major regional price disconnects in global natural gas markets.
• Although LNG links regions, slow arbitrage, infrastructure limits, policy differences, and contrasting demand mixes prevent price alignment, leaving Henry Hub and TTF shaped by distinct regional fundamentals.

• Asia’s forward PE and P/BV peaked in late October and are moderating now. Korea, Taiwan, China rerated the most. But viewed against ROE, Korea looks cheaper than 6 months ago.
• Going by PE viewed against forward EPS growth and P/BV against forward ROE, the well-known conclusion – Korea cheap, India expensive – remains unaltered. Onshore China appears slightly overvalued now.
• Persistent initiatives to improve corporate governance are boosting Korea’s and Taiwan’s valuation. Upward revisions in earnings estimates are getting broad-based, indicating the commencement of improving earnings momentum.

• Ending quantitative tightening will not eradicate pressure on bank reserves due to Treasury borrowing. Liquidity will be boosted in 2026 by depletion of the Treasury’s General Account at the Fed.
• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted retroactive tax breaks to 1 January 2025 without changes to withholding tax schedules, thereby ensuring large refunds in 2026 H1.
• The economic impact of the OBBBA’s tax breaks will be smaller compared to COVID-19 pandemic-related cheques because they favour households with higher propensities to save. Data-dependent Fed policy will continue.

• CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep’25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. 
• The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct’25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb’25, income tax revenue in Jul’25; both have since rebounded. 
• Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. 

• Crude oil futures were drifting lower Monday after initially consolidating at around two-week highs amid ongoing political tensions and expectations for a US rate cut on Wednesday.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.44/b (1957 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.75/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $58.80/b against a previous close of $60.08/b.
• Brent had climbed to the top end of the $60-$65/b trade range in place since the start of October, underpinned by a breakdown in the latest round of US-brokered talks to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with brewing tensions between Washington and Venezuela.

• A Trump-dominated Fed is on the verge of a rate cutting cycle based on a probable Greenspan-style bet on AI-driven productivity.
• If AI does significantly boost productivity, the economy could be in for a period of non-inflationary growth and prosperity
• The risk is a policy error, rising inflation and a falling USD. Much depends on the usefulness of AI across different applications and industries.

• While the charts are signaling bull-bear indecision on the surface, technical signals favour a short-term bullish resolution for a rally into year-end and beyond.
• However, the Fed rate decision could be the source of market volatility next week.
• This is consistent with the seasonality pattern of a choppy first half of December, followed by a rally into year-end starting in mid-December.

• Crude oil futures were steady on the week but up  from Monday’s lows after US-Russia talks failed to find a breakthrough, while growing optimism on a US rate cut also helped to bolster sentiment.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at  $63.71/b (2041 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.26/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $60.07/b against a previous close of $59.67/b.
• Benchmarks recovered from early-week lows, rebounding around 2% after negotiations between the US and Russia in Moscow broke off without a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• GCC’s non-oil PMI’s looking good, Saudi budget will continue to be expansionary.       

• Multinationals in Riyadh push office rents higher.                          

• Saudi banks’ resources getting pricier.

• Central banks have been buying gold since after the GFC to diversify from US Dollars, underpinning the market with tightness
• Gold bull markets have been influenced by periods of conflict and economic stability, with central banks playing a significant role in influencing the price
• The second gold bull market starting around 2000 saw the gold industry aggressively buying back their hedges, pushing the price up alongside central bank buying and market forces

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• The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.
• UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.
• Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

• Simandou’s arrival and softer mill output signal a clear shift toward weaker near-term demand, even as some investors position for policy surprises.
• Technical signals point to stretched momentum, with the broader setup now tilting toward elevated odds of a near-term mean-reversion pullback.
• The 65–62 spread climbed sharply this week, while the 62–58 spread moved lower, marking a notable divergence across grade differentials.

• RBI cuts repo rate by 25bps to 5.25% as expected, citing exceptional disinflation (0.25% October CPI) and 8.2% growth, though maintaining a neutral stance signals easing cycle may be nearing end.
• It forecasts headline inflation to fall to 0.6% in Q3 before rebounding sharply to 2.9% and 3.9% subsequently, limiting the scope for additional rate cuts despite growth moderating from current highs.
• Durable liquidity injections alongside rate cuts acknowledge monetary transmission constraints. The consensus sees 5.25% as the terminal rate, with policy dependent on inflation normalisation and external sector stability.

• Singapore’s stunning economic performance this year, led by strong exports and resilient domestic consumption, masks concerns over the impact of AI, tariffs and other challenges. 
• Government efforts to hedge industrial bets and trade relations, as well as enhance indigenous capacity by reallocating resources, provide some buffer against these issues. 
• Yet, the volatility of flows that comes with being a hub and the instability of the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with Singapore’s economic model. 

Highlights

• ENSO Conditions to be Neutral to Negative, But Not Falling to La Nina

• Session at COP30 Focuses on Smallholders in Climate Action

•  Integrating Climate Resilience into Production Systems Not Optional

  Dr. S. Abhilash, Director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, India, warns the Indonesia and Malaysia regions of above normal rainfall in December that can impact rubber supply as well.

• In Depth: Shanghai Slaps $7 Million Record Fines on Nine Firms for Mazhou Island
• China Launches New Probe Into Aggressive Private Conglomerate
• China Exposes Massive Loan Kickback in Finance Graft Crackdown

• RBI’s MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
• Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May’25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
• We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI’s 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug’26. 

• CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.
• Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.
• Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.

• The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.
• A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.
• Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

• US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. 
• Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. 
• Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.

• The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970’s and mid-2000s commodity bull market
• Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
• A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets

• In Depth: Shenzhen Gorged on Skyscrapers, Now It Faces a Commercial Property Glut
• ICBC Executives Taken Away as Concerns Mount Over China’s Biggest Bank
• PBOC Injects 50 Billion Yuan in November to Steady Year-End Liquidity

• Crude oil futures on Thursday were climbing higher, as benchmarks maintained the firmer start to December, albeit amid conflicting signals.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.31/b (2033 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $62.67/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $ 59.72/b against a previous close of $58.95/b.
• Prices have found some support this week from the fading prospects of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the broader rise in geopolitical tensions, but it has not been enough to shake off the gloom around a growing surplus.

• United States shows deepening slowdown with weak ISM manufacturing, falling employment, and declining private payrolls, signaling rising recession risk.

• India and China exhibit relatively constructive economic prospects, contrasting with softness in advanced economies.

• Asian indicators are mixed, with Indonesia struggling on trade and Hong Kong retail sales recovering gradually but remaining below pre-COVID levels.

• Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.
• The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.
• With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.

Highlights

• Indonesian rubber exports worth over US$250 million in Sept

• Asia drives demand as US tariffs mellow to pave the way

• Prices firm but volatility persists with weather risks and soft demand

  Though the major consumer, China, tracked impressive increases in August and September compared to July, September witnessed a decline from the second-highest levels of the year in August, in both value and volume.

• Crude oil futures Wednesday were climbing higher amid a deteriorating geopolitical situation, although ongoing concerns over a growing surplus kept prices withing the recent narrow band.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.70/b (2009 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $62.45/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.98/b against a previous close of $59.32/b.
• However, both benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day.

• From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors’ net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
• The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
• Investors’ sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.

• A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.
• The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.
• Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

• Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
• Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. 
• Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.

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• IMF starts its mission in Cairo.                                                                     

• Budget deficit widens, Growth accelerating.

• Shipping companies plan full return through the canal.

• Crude oil futures were moving sideways to lower Tuesday as geopolitical tensions bumped up against nagging concerns over a 2026 supply glut.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $62.38/b (2010 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $63.17/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $58.62/b against a previous close of $59.32/b.
• Benchmarks steadied early in the week after OPEC+ confirmed the decision to leave Q1 production unchanged, but have struggled to hold gains amid the oversupply concerns.

• Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.
• Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.
• Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

• Global team focusing on what’s new for 2026 in terms of market outlook
• Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience
• Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks

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• Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.
• Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.
• Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

• Macro crew discussed a benign outlook on carry fairly risk on climate for the first half of the year
• FX vols expected to be fairly contained in 2026 due to factors like US growth and central bank activity
• Themes for positioning in 2026 include bullish European growth, antipodean FX, and bearish Yen outlook

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• Korean government is likely to increase the mandatory tender offer from current 50% + 1 share requirement (minimum majority stake) to much higher levels (but below the maximum 100% requirement).
• There is an increasing probability that indeed the Korean government is likely to increase the minimum majority stake requirement to 60% to 75% of total shares in 1H26. 
• If the minimum maximum stake rises to 60%-75% of outstanding shares, this would have a further beneficial impact on the minority shareholders.

• The Bank of Japan’s aggressive purchasing foray in the government bond market under Governor Kuroda now presents legacy issues due to the return of inflation and investors shunning duration risk.
• Japan’s economy faces rising headwinds in 2025. The minority government has responded to slowing growth by announcing an aggressive fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting near-term activity and reducing headline inflation.
• Unwinding of yen carry trades by Japanese investors is unlikely to impact US Treasuries significantly due to healthy demand from domestic investors. Yen-sourced global liquidity has already fallen in 2025.

• In November, FIIs sold a stupendous US$22 bn Asian equities, the second highest in the past 6 years. Bulk of it was in Korea (US$9.7 bn) and Taiwan (US$12 bn). 
• Concerns about sustainability of AI capex and doubts about Fed rate trajectory were the key drivers of FIIs’ worries. The latter also depressed the Asian currencies.
• Study of last 6 years cumulative buying/selling reveals massive selling in Taiwan/Korea. Flows in these markets should recover the most as FIIs play catch-up. India is a more difficult call.

• Unlike the consensus, we weren’t surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep’25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. 
• We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct’25-Sep’26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. 
• With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. 

• In Depth: Malaysia Becomes a Lynchpin in U.S.-Led Effort to Break China’s Grip on Rare Earths
• In Depth: Nexperia’s Plight Could Have ‘Severe’ Impact on Global Automakers
• Hong Kong Fire Victims Recount Horror of Being Trapped Without Warn

• Crude oil futures opened firmer after weekend events, including an attack on the key Black Sea port and OPEC+ maintaining its no change policy for Q1, which improved sentiment.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.23/b (2003 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.40/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.43/b against a previous close of $58.55/b.
• Benchmarks strengthened as CPC suspended crude loadings at Novorossiysk early Saturday after an unmanned-boat strike tore into one of its offshore moorings, the latest in a string of attacks on the Black Sea export hub.

• In the first fortnight of November, inflation stood at 0.47% bw, driven by the withdrawal of the electricity tariff subsidy and higher public transportation prices.
• These pressures were partially offset by softer goods inflation associated with the Buen Fin discount program.
• As a result, annual inflation for the first fortnight of November reached 3.61%, maintaining room for an additional rate cut by Banco de México in December.

• Investors should be looking on the bright side this U.S. Thanksgiving. The trade war has stabilized and its effects are manageable and “less bad” than expected.
• Weakening growth will open the door to more rate cuts by the Fed.
• A lame duck Trump is likely to reduce market volatility in the months ahead.  

• The stock market is at a short-term crossroad. It recently experienced a panic bottom on oversold readings and wash-out sentiment.
• We are watching for signs of a bullish follow-through after the expected relief rally.
• The bull or bear judgment will depend on the market’s action over the coming days.

• Crude oil futures Friday were little changed although Brent tested weekly highs as doubts grow on the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine settlement.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $63.33/b (1854 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.34/b, but off from the week’s high of $63.76/b.
• Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b , after trade resumed following a technical glitch.

• October labor market data showed that employment conditions continue to weaken.
• Although 655 thousand new jobs were created during the month, the increase was driven entirely by informal employment, pushing the informality rate up from 54.9% to 55.4% of the employed population.
• The unemployment rate stood at 2.61% in October, below our forecast of 2.76% and the 2.78% expected by consensus.

• In the third quarter, GDP posted a -0.3% QoQ contraction, while weakness in industrial activity and the loss of momentum in the consumption sector persisted.
• As a result, our GDP forecast for 2025 would be revised from +0.60% to +0.35%.
• In the ninth month of the year, monthly GDP recorded a decline—already anticipated since the release of the flash estimate of quarterly GDP—of -0.6% MoM, below our -0.3% expectation and the -0.1% projected by consensus. 

• The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
• The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
• We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.

• During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% yearon-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade.
• This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand.
• The trade balance posted a surplus of USD 606 million in October, outperforming our projection of a USD 455 million deficit and the consensus forecast of a USD 589 million deficit.

• Consumer Discretionary is the strongest consensus overweight among UK active funds, with 85% positioned above the FTSE All Share Index.
• The sector’s relative overweight has climbed steadily to decade highs, with 85% of funds positioned above benchmark.
• Stock-Level tilts show consistent preference for Burberry, Whitbread, and Next, alongside reductions in Taylor Wimpey, Dowlais, and Frasers Group.

• A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.
• Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.