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We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT – OVERVIEW 2025

By David Mudd

Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far. Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings. With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.

The Beat Ideas: Dynamatic Technologies – An Indian Tier-1 Supplier’s Flight Path in Global Aerospace

By Nimish Maheshwari

The structural shift in Dynamatic Technologies’ revenue mix is accelerating, with the high-margin Aerospace segment now contributing 82% of consolidated EBITDA in FY25, underpinned by major new contract industrialization.
The premium valuation is justified by its annuity-like, high-barrier sole-supplier status for the Airbus A320 family and significant new program wins (Airbus A220 doors), providing a multi-decade visibility.
DTL’s core value is increasingly diverging from its legacy segments; success hinges on efficient capital deployment in India and mitigating the persistent drag from its European Metallurgy business.

CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook After Nov. 28 Rebalance Announcement

By Nico Rosti

On November 28th China Securities Index Co (CSI) announced the changes to the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX): 11 companies added and 11 deleted.
The complete list of additions and deletions is available here (or see the attachment at the end of this insight for your convenience).
We analyze our probabilistic models to forecast short-term market directions for the CSI 300 Index, as passive flows between here and December 12 may affect the index volatility and trend.

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Nov 29

Most Read: Teco Electric & Machinery, Toyoda Gosei, LG Corp, Daehan Shipbuilding, Bengo4.Com Inc, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Suzhou Novosense Microelectron, Tata Capital Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
UK Backloads A Tax Trap
[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak
HEW: Slow Shovels
Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

UK Backloads A Tax Trap

The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.

Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

HEW: Slow Shovels

UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

Tata Capital (TATACAP IN): Partial Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) went public on 13 October 2025 on NSE and has a current market cap of over $15bn.
Partial inclusion in Global indices is expected in June 2026, as the security fails the float cap threshold in one Global index.
Free float is projected to increase incrementally following lock-up expiries of anchor investors and pre-offer shareholders.

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Nov 28

Most Read: Toyoda Gosei, Daehan Shipbuilding, Kioxia Holdings , Bengo4.Com Inc, Digital Holdings Inc, Mandom Corp, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation
[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle
Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation

By Rahul Jain

Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.
Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.
Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.

[Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion

Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Revised Terms Faces Twin Challenges

SilverCape has increased its tender offer price for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) by 2.9% to JPY2,450 and raised the minimum tendering condition to 6.8 million shares (36.61% ownership ratio).
The SilverCape hostile offer faces twin challenges: preventing completion of the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) offer and gaining the Board’s support/stopping the implementation of countermeasures.
SilverCape’s revised terms are unlikely to address these challenges. While Hakuhodo may (again) revise its offer, I expect the bump to be marginal (less than 5%).

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%

Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%.
Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender.
With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.

[Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint

Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP).
SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…

Korea FSC Omnibus Rollout Dropped Today: Key Backdrop & Trade-Relevant Angle

FSC confirms December rollout; beyond procedural cleanup, this structural shift in flows brings small-to-mid shops and offshore retail, creating new order patterns in the local market.
Omnibus accounts aggregate orders under one broker, blurring classic smart-money signals, slowing local retail follow-ons, and creating wider price-action gaps in the order book.
MSCI volatility trades also require attention; the omnibus rollout will likely intensify flows as new accounts follow major institutions, impacting the Korea sleeve short-term.

Mandom (4917 JP): A Big Win for Activists as CVC-Sponsored MBO Price Raised to JPY2,520

Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has disclosed that the CVC-sponsored MBO price has increased by 28.6% from JPY1,960 to JPY2,520.
The revised terms mark a big win for activists, Murakami and Hibiki. Both activists will tender, with Hibiki reinvesting around 40% of its proceeds into the offeror’s parent entity.
The revised terms are attractive, and this is a done deal. The offer closes on 18 December, with payment from 25 December.

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Nov 27

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Kioxia Holdings , Teco Electric & Machinery, Toyoda Gosei, Daehan Shipbuilding, National Storage REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?
Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
UK Backloads A Tax Trap
KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?

After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF

Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.

UK Backloads A Tax Trap

The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.

KOSPI Size Indices: Lots of Change as Averaging Starts

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will commence on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Nearing the start of the averaging period, we forecast 34 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 2 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations by a lot over the last 3 months. The gap in returns versus the KOSPI2 INDEX is a lot smaller.

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Attractive NBIO at A$2.86

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 7 December. A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB, NZ OIO and ACCC approval.
The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x. The short exclusivity period increases the odds of a binding proposal.

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Nov 26

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Yum China Holdings , Kioxia Holdings , Iress Ltd, Teco Electric & Machinery, Dear Life and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Kioxia IPO Lockup Expiry – US$6.7bn Release, with Shareholders Eager to Sell
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown
[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?
Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
Kioxia Placement – US$2bn Deal, Relatively Small, Index Upweight but the Shares Have Runup
Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade
[Japan Offering] Dear Life (3245 JP) – Unusual Offer Dynamics Are Bullish Despite Dilution

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Kioxia IPO Lockup Expiry – US$6.7bn Release, with Shareholders Eager to Sell

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges.

[Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?

After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.

Kioxia Placement – US$2bn Deal, Relatively Small, Index Upweight but the Shares Have Runup

Bain aims to raise around US$2bn via selling around 6% of its stake in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP). The IPO linked lockup on its shareholding had expired in Jun 2025.
Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Iress (IRE AU): Suitors Engaged, But (Still) Nothing Firm

The board of Iress Ltd (IRE AU), a trading and wealth management software provider, has denied reports in an Australian article concerning a possible takeover from Blackstone.
The article said that Blackstone was reportedly back in talks for a bid “that could be worth between $11 and $12 per share“. Iress’ share price promptly popped 8% yesterday.
Iress is still very much in play as it “continues to engage with multiple parties“.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes; US$4bn Trade

With the review period now complete, there could be 3 constituent changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.7% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 125bn (US$4bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

[Japan Offering] Dear Life (3245 JP) – Unusual Offer Dynamics Are Bullish Despite Dilution

Today after the close, Tokyo-based Dear Life (3245 JP) announced a primary offering to raise approximately ¥7bn through 15% dilution. Implying a 13+% price drop to protect PER.
But the company plans on growing earnings. It has some projects in inventory, but it obviously plans a lot of turnover this year and needs to replenish.
The MTMP “slogan” is “2028 – Ride the Wave!” This is a bit what investing in Tokyo real estate is like now. So one rides it until one doesn’t.

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Nov 25

Most Read: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Yum China Holdings , Innovent Biologics Inc, Pan Pacific International Holdings, LOTTE Corporation, Qube Holdings, Gabia Inc, Smec Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
UK Labour Party: Damned If They Do…
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind
Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal
Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20
A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
SNT Group – Formalizes a Hostile Takeover of SMEC

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

UK Labour Party: Damned If They Do…

By Alastair Newton

Whatever Rachel Reeves comes up with in her 26 November budget, she is bound to run into criticism from within her own parliamentary party.
Bond markets seem set to react badly to this, especially if it seems likely that her overall objectives will be undermined by internal resistance to proposed measures.
She and the PM will probably survive this, but a market-unsettling change and slide to the left look increasingly likely by mid-2026, followed by defeat at the next election.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 – Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago.
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.

Ruling Party Unveils Key Details of 3rd Commercial Act Amendment: Mandatory Treasury-Share Disposal

The proposed bill fully closes the treasury-share loopholes, bans all exchangeable/pledge uses, blocks M&A allocations, and imposes strict cancellation deadlines—1 year for new buys, 6 months for existing.
The amendment tightens disposal rules: no cancellation means pro-rata sales to existing shareholders only, shutting down selective deals and closing the wide-open disposal gap under current law.
The proposal is far tougher than expected, likely to become the final version, and should drive a near-term mandatory-cancel narrative and notable price action in governance-sensitive holding-co names.

Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20

Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval.
While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.

A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management

By Douglas Kim

After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won.
If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%.

SNT Group – Formalizes a Hostile Takeover of SMEC

By Douglas Kim

On 24 November, the SNT Group formalized its hostile takeover of Smec. S&T Holdings disclosed that it acquired an additional 5.46% stake in SMEC, raising its stake to 13.65%.
S&T Holdings and SNT Group Chairman Choi combined own a 20.2% stake in SMEC. In comparison, the SMEC CEO Choi Young-seop owns a 9.75% stake in SMEC.
In our view, this is likely to lead to a potential fight for the control of SMEC’s management rights, pushing up the share price of SMEC even further.

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Nov 24

Most Read: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, CRH , Yum China Holdings , SK Square , Innovent Biologics Inc, Qube Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Monash IVF, Geekplus Technology, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon
HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio
Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal
Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 3 Changes; Yum China In; Double Add for Innovent Bio

China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao.

Unexpected ETF-Driven Flow Event Lights up the KOSPI 200 IT Sleeve

If the three non-IT names exit IT, passive flows hit hard: SK Square/LG Electronics ~0.4× DTV out, LG Corp ~0.8× DTV out, new IT entrants ~0.2–0.25× DTV in.
If KRX surprises next Tuesday, kicking three names from IT, expect immediate tape reaction—market memory exists, but the scenario isn’t priced, unlike 2023 Kakaopay, so instant price impact is likely.
If this happens, June 11 turns into a chunky basket-flow day: SK Square (~15% weight) out, next-tier caps see ~0.15–0.2× DTV inflow, except ultra-liquid names like Hanmi Semi.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO

Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

As forecast, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) will replace Tata Motors (TTMT IN) in the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) after the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 3.6-7.7x ADV in the stocks and that increases significantly to 7.1-12x delivery volume.
There are indications that positioning has built up in both stocks over the last few weeks. However, in both cases, positioning is expected to be smaller than the passive selling.

Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?

The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light.

[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal

In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on the 21 November close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$26.14bn (approximately), to trade on 5 December at the close.

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Nov) – SBI Shinsei, Toyoda Gosei, Jinke, Digital Hldgs, Webjet, RPM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion, and Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s US$0.8 billion secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Webjet Group (WJL AU).

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Nov 23

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Ping An Healthcare and Technology, China Hongqiao, Tata Capital Limited, Isupetasys, OliX Pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Index, LG Corp, CRH , Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December
China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 16 Changes a Side; Fadu a Casualty Yet Again
HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon
HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

KWEB Index Rebalance Preview: Bunch of Potential Inclusions in December

The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI Overseas China Internet Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced 28 November and implemented close on 12 December.
There could be 6 inclusions for the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in December with most inclusions being high probability.
Impact on the inclusions varies between 1.3-5 days of ADV. There will be stocks with float increases and some capping changes.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Nearly Perfect

There will be 7 additions and 8 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
As expected, there are no adhoc inclusions as Samsung Epis Holdings is added to the index to offset the gap created by the Hyundai Heavy/ Hyundai Mipo merger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes very handily while also outperforming the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) but by a much narrower margin.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 16 Changes a Side; Fadu a Casualty Yet Again

There will be 16 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 11 December.
Making use of their discretionary powers, the index committee has not added Wonik Holdings Co., Ltd (030530 KS), Samhyun (437730 KS) and Fadu (440110 KS) to the index.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index over the last 6 months and there has been a short-term move higher too. Watch out for short covering.

HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

As Brian Freitas recently outlined, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) changes will be announced November 21st (this Friday) and take effect on December 6th.
Brian predicted index additions and no deletions. As with all rebalances, inflows, outflows, and adjustments could trigger volatility. Our models, trained on decades of market data, help forecast these moves.
Currently the HSI INDEX is in a mild WEEKLY correction, after a previous modest 2-week rally. We are still waiting for a meaningful correction, after the recent monster rally.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Two ADDs Two DELs and 3 Intra-Review Changes Likely Soon

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Leapmotor (9863 HK) To Replace ASMPT (522 HK) As Trade Hits US$3.5bn

As expected, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) will replace ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% and that results in a round-trip trade of HK$27.5bn (US$3.5bn). There is between 8.7-9.8 days of ADV to trade in the two stocks.
Capping and float changes results in chunky flows to some other stocks and there could be big price moves over the next week.

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Nov 22

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tata Capital Limited, DeNA, SBI Shinsei Bank, 3SBio Inc, Kioxia Holdings , LG Corp, UltraGreen.ai, Alliance Laundry Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.
The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
HEW: Micro Risk Off
Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle
UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding
US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Dec25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 December.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL (3750 HK) will have a 6-month trading history by implementation of the index changes and is a high probability inclusion to the index. But cornerstone lock-up ends tomorrow.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

[Japan Pump ‘n Dump] Murakami Group Starts Selling The Day After Reporting 5%

On 20 October, Murakami Group reported they’d gone over 5% in cash/asset-rich DeNA (2432 JP). Not easy with insiders+Crossholders at 39%, passive at 24%. But not impossible.
On 30 October, they reported they’d gone to 6.31% on 23 October (four days before they reported the 5%.
As reported here before, Murakami-san sometimes does what might charitably be called a headfake, less charitably a Pump ‘n Dump.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.

3SBio (1530 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing of Mandi Inc.

Pharma-Play 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) has announced the spin-off and listing of 87.16%-held Mandi (MANDI HK) on the HKEx.
3SBio will distribute its stake in-specie. There will be a concurrent global offering, the details of which are still to be fleshed out.
Mandi (MANDI HK), a ” hair loss and weight management treatments” solutions provider, accounted for 17% of 3SBio’s revs in the 1H25, and 12.5% of profit.

The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge

By Jay Cameron

Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.

HEW: Micro Risk Off

Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

Korea’s 25% Dividend Tax Basically Locked In, Market Now Trading the 30% Payout Angle

Starting next week, the tax subcommittee is set to hash out the 25% proposal, and with the opposition unlikely to block it, the 25% top rate is basically locked in.
The street’s treating 30% payout as base case, betting on more upside. The committee may pick it up next week, with headlines likely hitting the KRX tape fast.
Locals are already chasing 30%+ payout, deep-value names, with gov’t aiming for a Taiwan-style re-rating. If dividend-tax headlines drop next week, these screened names could rip.

UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding

By Hong Jie Seow

UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
Ultragreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

US: 19 IPOs Forecasted for Index Addition in December 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).

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Nov 21

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Tsuruha Holdings, Taiwan Mobile, Tata Capital Limited, Grindr , Toyoda Gosei, Tekscend Photomask, SBI Shinsei Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering
Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium

CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25

A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade

Following multiple amendments to the methodology, there could be 4 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 18.1% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 173.2bn (US$5.56bn).
There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.

Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting

Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering

Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.

Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) went public on 16 October 2025 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has a current market cap of $2bn.
Inclusion in Global indices is expected in February and June 2026, as the security meets Global eligibility criteria.
A slight free float increase is anticipated at a subsequent review following the lock-up expiry of Qatar Holding.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights