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In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO’s Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount.

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday

There are 2 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in December. Plus there are large capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$26.6bn (US$3.4bn). There are 16 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade.
The adds drifted lower vs the deletes in September and October but have started outperforming in December. There could be more outperformance following announcement of the index changes.

AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN): Increased FOL & Large Passive Flows/ Impact

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) has received approval from the Ministry of Finance to increase its Foreign Ownership Limit from 49% to 74% (the maximum permitted).
The increased FOL will result in passive inflows from global index trackers in February and March. The inflows are multiple days of ADV.
There has been little increase in positioning. The increased Foreign Ownership Limit and the passive flows to come could lead to the stock moving higher over the next few weeks.

More Detailed Insight into Hynix’s Internal Situation Regarding the ADR Issue

They’re maxing out M15X ahead of schedule, facing a fab gap until ’27, and now need more capex than their KRW 28tn cash pile comfortably covers.
SK doesn’t want an Hynix ADR; they’re focused on tapping the KRW 150tn Growth Fund to fill the capex gap while avoiding dilution and protecting their already-fragile control stack.
ADR noise spiked because Hynix’s near-term capex needs exceed Growth Fund capacity, pushing them toward a 2.4% treasury dump—but I still don’t see SK pulling the ADR trigger.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price).

[Japan Activism/M&A] Activist Launches Partial Tender to Put Microcap Broadmedia (4347 JP) In Play

Today after the close, Broadmedia Corp (4347 JP) announced that UK-based Japan activist AVI and one of its funds would launch a tender offer for just over 10% of shares.
The Tender Offer comes at a 29.5% premium, and it would take the activist to ~40% – close to board-spilling influence.
This creates an interesting setup. One wonders whether this is meant to spill the Board post-tender, and whether the Company will seek alternate solutions.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure

Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a Toyota Industries (6201 JP) ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.
The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.
A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000.

Strategy (MSTR US)’s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some

Strategy (MSTR US)‘s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings.
The backbone of Strategy’s levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.
That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company may sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.

Hynix & Square L2 Flags Set to Squeeze Spread Near Term

SK Hynix and SK Square hit L2 flags; cash-only until Dec 24. Margin off, >40% two-day rip triggers halt. L2 lifts if below T-5/+45%, T-15/+75%, and 15-day high.
L2’s usually a non-event, but this time the margin freeze probably smacks Hynix harder. Key trigger is staying below the 15-day high: Hynix ₩587,000, Square ₩324,000.
Govt set to roll out AI-semiconductor holdco deregulation this week, boosting AI holdcos like Square and juicing a near-term Square-over-Hynix trade opportunity.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H IPO Lockup – US$500m Cornerstone Release

By Sumeet Singh

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK), China’s leading condiments company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Dec 10

Most Read: Yixin Group , SK Square , Canva, Makino Milling Machine Co, AU Small Finance Bank Limited, Broadmedia Corp, SK Hynix, ANE Cayman Inc, Okuma Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday
Read-Through on the Samsung/Hynix ADR-Listing Noise
2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward
AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN): Increased FOL & Large Passive Flows/ Impact
[Japan Activism/M&A] Activist Launches Partial Tender to Put Microcap Broadmedia (4347 JP) In Play
A Potential Listing of ADRs for SK Hynix Using Its Treasury Shares?
ANE Cayman (9956 HK): On S329 Reports And Letters Of Interest
More Detailed Insight into Hynix’s Internal Situation Regarding the ADR Issue
[Japan Offering] Significant Financial Crossholder Selldown in Okuma (6103)

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday

There are 2 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in December. Plus there are large capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$26.6bn (US$3.4bn). There are 16 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade.
The adds drifted lower vs the deletes in September and October but have started outperforming in December. There could be more outperformance following announcement of the index changes.

Read-Through on the Samsung/Hynix ADR-Listing Noise

ADR odds are tiny. Both Samsung and Hynix have thin control stakes, making governance risk too high. Neither is willing to chase a valuation pop at the expense of stability.
Still can’t ignore it, since the ADR chatter is meaningfully swinging the pair trades. Samsung pref spread and Hynix/Square are both getting pushed around.
ADR noise cooled today, but it can easily resurface and skew the setup. Treat as noise, but be ready to hit aggressive reversion trades when it pops again.

2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia

In this insight, we provide a list of 50 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia in 2026 (excluding Korea).
This report is meant to serve as a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed next year in Asia.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, Kunlunxin, Shein, Flipkart, and Canva.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price).

AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN): Increased FOL & Large Passive Flows/ Impact

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) has received approval from the Ministry of Finance to increase its Foreign Ownership Limit from 49% to 74% (the maximum permitted).
The increased FOL will result in passive inflows from global index trackers in February and March. The inflows are multiple days of ADV.
There has been little increase in positioning. The increased Foreign Ownership Limit and the passive flows to come could lead to the stock moving higher over the next few weeks.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Activist Launches Partial Tender to Put Microcap Broadmedia (4347 JP) In Play

Today after the close, Broadmedia Corp (4347 JP) announced that UK-based Japan activist AVI and one of its funds would launch a tender offer for just over 10% of shares.
The Tender Offer comes at a 29.5% premium, and it would take the activist to ~40% – close to board-spilling influence.
This creates an interesting setup. One wonders whether this is meant to spill the Board post-tender, and whether the Company will seek alternate solutions.

A Potential Listing of ADRs for SK Hynix Using Its Treasury Shares?

According to numerous local media, SK Hynix is considering on listing its treasury shares (2.4% of outstanding shares representing 17.4 million shares) as ADRs.
SK Hynix could cancel its treasury shares or list them as ADRs. The bigger bang for the buck will likely be to list them as ADRs.
By listing its shares as ADRs, the valuation gap between SK Hynix and other listed peers (such as MU and TSMC) could be reduced.

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): On S329 Reports And Letters Of Interest

ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)‘s Offer, by way of a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, in tandem with Temasek, has displayed some unique (unusual?) firsts.
There is the 9%+ stake held by CDH – another pre-IPO investor – a shareholder that fails to appear in subsequent annual/interim reports; or even Hong Kong disclosure announcements.
Then late last week, the Offeror opted not to raise the cap on the scrip option alternative, despite shareholders expressing interest.

More Detailed Insight into Hynix’s Internal Situation Regarding the ADR Issue

They’re maxing out M15X ahead of schedule, facing a fab gap until ’27, and now need more capex than their KRW 28tn cash pile comfortably covers.
SK doesn’t want an Hynix ADR; they’re focused on tapping the KRW 150tn Growth Fund to fill the capex gap while avoiding dilution and protecting their already-fragile control stack.
ADR noise spiked because Hynix’s near-term capex needs exceed Growth Fund capacity, pushing them toward a 2.4% treasury dump—but I still don’t see SK pulling the ADR trigger.

[Japan Offering] Significant Financial Crossholder Selldown in Okuma (6103)

Okuma Corp (6103 JP) today announced a secondary offering of 5.0mm shares (including greenshoe) from a relatively large number of financial crossholders.
That takes out about a third of them and not quite a quarter of the crossholders. There’s more to go. And the register remains “blocked”.
It looks headed to retail but this stock is very low volatility and is likely to remain that way. A large buyback to start in January offsets the overhang here.

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Dec 09

Most Read: E.Sun Financial Holding Co, MS&AD Insurance, Yixin Group , National Storage REIT, Geely Auto, Jinke Smart Services, HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt, Canva and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Dec25), Really Disappointing CEO Comments/Questions
CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield/GIC Firm A$2.86/Share Offer
National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Binding Proposal at A$2.86
2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty
2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged
HashKey Holdings Pre-IPO: Volatile Crypto Space, and Volatile Financials
2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
There will be four ADD/DELs for T50, three separate ADDs/DELs for T100, and three ADDs/DELs for TDIV.
All of these changes were correctly predicted except for one surprise TDIV addition.

[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Dec25), Really Disappointing CEO Comments/Questions

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
This report skipped two months as there were no real developments until the 13 November Council meeting. 262 companies filed CGRs in November, 243 in October, 230 in September.
The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder…

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: Large Flows & Impact on Friday

There are 2 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in December. Plus there are large capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$26.6bn (US$3.4bn). There are 16 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade.
The adds drifted lower vs the deletes in September and October but have started outperforming in December. There could be more outperformance following announcement of the index changes.

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield/GIC Firm A$2.86/Share Offer

After National Storage REIT (NSR AU) entered a trading halt on the 26th Nov, it subsequently announced a NBIO from Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC.
Brookfield and GIC tabled a A$2.86/share (~1.11x P/NTA 30th June 2025) Offer, by way of a Scheme. Any 1H26 distribution would be netted (not added, as I incorrectly posted previously).
This morning, NSR announced it has entered into a Scheme on the same terms. Implementation expected late April 2026. FIRB and NZ’s OIO approvals required, in addition to the vote.

National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Brookfield and GIC’s Binding Proposal at A$2.86

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has entered a SID with Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The scheme offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB, NZ OIO and foreign competition (EU, Ukraine, Turkey, China, Korea) approvals.
Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low risk as the offer represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x.

2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty

By Alastair Newton

In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest

By Ming Lu

The deliveries still grew strongly by 24% YoY in November 2025.
We believe Geely will take BYD’s place as the largest Chinese producer.
We also believe the stock has an upside of 49% for the next twelve months.

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Delisting EGM on 24 December as Acceptances Remain Unchanged

Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)’s revised composite document relating to Boyu’s enhanced offer of HK$8.69 will be despatched on 9 December. The delisting EGM is on 24 December.
The enhanced offer is conditional on the shareholders’ approval of the delisting resolution (low risk) and the 90% minimum acceptance condition from disinterested shareholders (high risk).
Acceptances have not budged since 18 November, which explains Boyu’s introduction of two acceptance options on 4 December. The 90% minimum acceptance condition remains problematic.

HashKey Holdings Pre-IPO: Volatile Crypto Space, and Volatile Financials

By Nicholas Tan

HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt (2365361D HK) is looking to raise at least US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates the largest licensed crypto exchange in Hong Kong.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Asia

In this insight, we provide a list of 50 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia in 2026 (excluding Korea).
This report is meant to serve as a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed next year in Asia.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, Kunlunxin, Shein, Flipkart, and Canva.

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Dec 08

Most Read: Aspen Group, SBI Shinsei Bank, SK Inc, E.Sun Financial Holding Co, Alibaba, NIO , Makino Milling Machine Co, Resolute Mining, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
Curator’s Cut: 2026’s Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho’s IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought
2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Dec) – Makino, Pacific Ind, Jinke, ENN Energy, Qube, NSR, Predictive Disc
Quiddity ASX Dec25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; US$770mn Combined One-Way Flow; Avoid Crowds
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels
Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.

Curator’s Cut: 2026’s Top Picks, Unpacking Meesho’s IPO & Navigating Lock-Ups

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we unveil the first wave of 2026 high conviction ideas, break down the risks and rewards of the Meesho IPO and track upcoming lock-up expiries.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Dec 25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; ~US$3bn Combined One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
There will be four ADD/DELs for T50, three separate ADDs/DELs for T100, and three ADDs/DELs for TDIV.
All of these changes were correctly predicted except for one surprise TDIV addition.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2Wks To 5 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Lower Nets, BABA Still Bought

HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.
Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace .
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

2026 High Conviction: Short NIO (NIO US/9866 HK)

NIO (NIO US) is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer listed on three exchanges.
NIO’s Q4 deliveries guidance was below expectations, and sales momentum is on a declining trend. Sustainably hitting its 20% gross margin target and achieving breakeven in 2026 seems a stretch.
NIO’s valuation is stretched, trading at a material premium to the median EV/Sales and growth-adjusted EV/Sales multiples of Chinese EV peers.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Dec) – Makino, Pacific Ind, Jinke, ENN Energy, Qube, NSR, Predictive Disc

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

Quiddity ASX Dec25 Results: 19/20 Correctly Predicted; US$770mn Combined One-Way Flow; Avoid Crowds

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the December 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5th December 2025.
There are 20 ADDs and 20 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, and ASX 200. We got 19/20 predictions correct.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +26.1% Premium; Remains at Level Rarely Maintained for More Than a Week; Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.5% Premium; Historically Rare Level is a Short Opportunity
ASE: +2.9% Premium; Wait Better Short Opportunity at Higher Levels

Ohayo Japan | Rising Tensions

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks rose Friday, extending S&P 500’s fourth straight gain and ninth win in ten sessions, on data supporting a Fed rate cut this week.
Japan accused Chinese jets of targeting its aircraft with fire-control radar near Okinawa; Beijing denied it, tensions rose
Horiba (6856 JP): Oasis discloses 9.9% stake as stock +30% in 3M on AI/semi exposure. Target could be Y100b cash pile.

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Dec 07

Most Read: Dundee Precious Metals , Kuang-Chi Technologies , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Aspen Group, CMOC Group , Dongfeng Motor, HDFC Bank, Musinsa, Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul
2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea
HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm
Guangdong Tianyu IPO Trading: Weak Insti and Retail Demand

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade

There are 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) with implementation taking place at the close on 12 December.
Nearly all the changes are in line with forecasts. Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH) is the one surprise addition.
The adds outperformed the deletes and the CSI300 from June-September but have given back a chunk of the gains since then. Expect positioning to build over the next few days.

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation

Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul

By Nico Rosti

Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is falling this week, so we analyze our model’s WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much HDFC Bank can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose.

2026 (“Year of the Horse”) Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea

This is our 11th “Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview” at Smartkarma.
This insight features 40 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2026.
Some of the largest potential IPOs in Korea in 2026 include CJ Olive Young, DN Solutions, Dunamu, Goodai Global, K Bank, Kurly, Musinsa, SK On, SK Ecoplant, and Sono International.

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

By Phil Rush

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.
UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.
Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

Guangdong Tianyu IPO Trading: Weak Insti and Retail Demand

By Nicholas Tan

Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor (2223725D CH) raised around US$224m in its HK IPO.
It was founded in 2009, and is the largest domestic PRC SiC epitaxal wafer manufacturer both in terms of revenue and sales volume, as of 2024.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Dec 06

Most Read: Quanta Computer, Aditya Birla Capital Ltd, Aspen Group, SK Inc, Dongfeng Motor, SBI Shinsei Bank, ANE Cayman Inc, Steadfast, Wonik Ips and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives
Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint
Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.

2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc

Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey.
SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.
Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation

Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.

ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?

The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares.
The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December).
The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.

BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives

By Phil Rush

CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.
Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.
Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.

Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance “matchmaker”: CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week.
Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly – now concluded on “a confidential basis”, with Kelly resuming his roles.

Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets

Fresh intel hit at lunch. Official rollout is penciled for the 11th or 12th, sourced straight from a key gov’t operator and pushed to Hankyung.
The package basically boils down to two levers: juiced tax perks for retail in Kosdaq venture funds and a structural bump-up in pension-fund allocation.
Street sees this as constructive: tax tweaks to pull retail, pension weight-ups to juice flows, and focus on 300bn+ Kosdaq names that beat Q3 consensus 10%+.

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Dec 05

Most Read: Mao Geping Cosmetics, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Toyota Industries, Gabia Inc, CMOC Group , SBI Shinsei Bank, Dongfeng Motor, SK Inc, ANE Cayman Inc, Aspen Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors

By Sumeet Singh

Mao Geping Cosmetics (1318 HK) raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, the firm offers a wide range of Color cosmetics and Skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy‘s words: “Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise.”
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025

In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Sets of Changes

CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation

Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.

2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc

Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey.
SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.
Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.

ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?

The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares.
The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December).
The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.

Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion

Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.

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Dec 04

Most Read: Tsuruha Holdings, Quanta Computer, ANE Cayman Inc, Aditya Birla Capital Ltd, Xiaomi, Lotte Rental, Toyota Industries, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Gabia Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900
ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)
Korea’s 4th Policy Trade Is Right Around the Corner: Mandatory Tender Offers
StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus
A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a “Vision” instead.
Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before.
AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit.
The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake.

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 28th October, ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
The consortium offered HK$12.18/share, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed. A special dividend was bolted on. All pre-cons, including SAMR’s approval, have been satisfied. Scheme Doc dispatch expected on/before 31st December.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and yesterday pinned down a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.

Korea’s 4th Policy Trade Is Right Around the Corner: Mandatory Tender Offers

The next policy swing is mandatory tender offers (MTO), with the gov’t + ruling party pushing for passage this session, likely alongside the mandatory treasury-share cancellation.
2022 FSS/FSC 50%+1 trigger scrapped; 25% stays. Ruling party favors 50%+ MTO, base case 100%, but pushback may reduce to 70–80%.
MTOs tighten discounts, benefit minority holders; focus on local holding firms, PE-backed exits, and parent-driven M&A prospects.

StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy‘s words: “Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise.”
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.

A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025

In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.

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Dec 03

Most Read: XD Inc., Tsuruha Holdings, ICICI Bank Ltd, Quanta Computer, Genting Malaysia, UltraGreen.AI, Xiaomi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share
NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches
HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded
Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900
UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.
Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a “Vision” instead.
Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before.
AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower.

NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches

NSE Indices has announced the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) that will be implemented in 4 tranches starting in December.
Yes Bank (YES IN) and Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) will be added to the index to increase the number of constituents from 12 to 14.
Passives need to sell HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) while buying all the other stocks in the index.

HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

By Phil Rush

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.
Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.
Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded

Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s unconditional Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) closed yesterday, the 1st December, with GENT holding 73.13%, up from 49.99% initially.
The IFA previously opined the Offer to be NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. A bump in terms, long rumoured, failed to unfold.
Yesterday, GENM was one of three applicants selected by New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board for a full commercial casino license in downtown New York.

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit.
The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake.

UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds

By Hong Jie Seow

UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) raised around US$400m in its Singapore IPO.
UltraGreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.

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Dec 02

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Dundee Precious Metals , Kuang-Chi Technologies , XD Inc., Tsuruha Holdings, Dawning Information Industry C, Canon Electronics, Delfi Ltd, African Gold Ltd, 3SBio Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade
CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade
KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade
[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies
Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations
African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)
3SBio Placement: Partnership with Pfizer Going Well; Digestible Deal

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) – Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO’s Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance Preview: Stock Price Moves Shrink Capping Trade

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes & US$7.77bn Trade

There are 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) with implementation taking place at the close on 12 December.
Nearly all the changes are in line with forecasts. Jiangsu Zhongtian Technologies Co, Ltd. (600522 CH) is the one surprise addition.
The adds outperformed the deletes and the CSI300 from June-September but have given back a chunk of the gains since then. Expect positioning to build over the next few days.

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.
Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.

[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?

Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 constituent changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH) is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH).
The SSE50 Index adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.

[Japan M&A] ParentCo Finally Buys Out Canon Elec (7739 JP) – OK Premium, Meh Process, No Synergies

Friday post-close, parent Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced a buyout of subsidiary Canon Electronics (7739 JP). The ¥3,650/share offer is supported and recommended (to shareholders) by Target Co management.
This is the least surprising of parent-subsidiary buyout situations, but it took some time. I expect there are some funds already long a basket of these, including this one.
This is not a very fair procedure. The result is therefore, unfair. And no synergies to boot. But it is a 30+% premium to last, and Canon already owns 55%.

Delfi : Consumer Company with Reasonable Valuations

By Punit Khanna

Number 1 chocolate company in Indonesia with own brands like SilverQueen, Ceres etc. The company also distributes third party brands across South Asia.
Cocoa prices have halved from their recent peak but still they are higher than historical average
Stock trades at reasonable multiple to its 2023 earnings when cocoa prices were stable

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