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The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited.
The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price

Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
“The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising

By Akshat Shah

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger

On 10 September, CVC announced a family-led MBO of well-known Japanese hair-care/cosmetics firm Mandom Corp (4917 JP). Agreed, supported, recommended, for a start date end-September. It was also too light.
I suggested the open-ish register could trigger activists. The stock opened just above terms post-announcement and then traded higher. Shares fell today but it is still 15% through terms.
Hibiki Path Advisors wrote a strong letter. Murakami announced a 6.67% stake yesterday, 8.39% today. But that’s 5 days old. Today, the company announced the TOB starts tomorrow. Still fun.

StubWorld: Naspers Coming Up “Cheap” Vs Prosus

As Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms, Naspers (NPN SJ) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor.
Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus and Tencent (700 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed

The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers.
While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition.
Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

FSS Just Announced: Treasury Disclosure Threshold Cut to 1% — Trading Highlights

Disclosure threshold drops from 5% to 1%, signaling stricter transparency, heavier penalties, and potential acceleration of buyback cancellations; new rules open for comment until November 5, effective Q4.
Near-Term, high-treasury, solid-ROE stocks could see short-term momentum as mandatory cancels and tighter disclosure mechanically lift EPS, driving flows and setting up potential short-term longs.
This sparks a new event-driven “disclosure schedule trading” setup, as 1%+ treasury holdings now trigger twice-yearly reports and six-month follow-ups, boosting volatility around announcements.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months.
My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride.

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Sep 25

Most Read: Chery Automobile, Gemvax & Kael, Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt, Alibaba, MNC Solution, Tekscend Photomask, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Ecopro BM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response
Alibaba (9988 HK): It’s Raining AI at the Apsara Conference, Firing up the Stock.
Broadly Slower Services PMIs
Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in December 2025
Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend
Ecopro Co – Confirms Raising 800 Billion Won Through a PRS Using Stake in Ecopro BM

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

[Japan M&A] Paramount Bed (7817 JP) Founding Family Takeout – Too Cheap, Deserves Activist Response

In a fairly common pattern, the founding family (38% ownership) of Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) have launched an MBO.
It is too cheap at 4.2x adjusted EV/EBITDA (one could argue it is 5.0x but they also have net receivables) for such a ubiquitous brand and growth.
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) may have been a one-off. Maybe not. People may look at this situation through that lens. It deserves that look.

Alibaba (9988 HK): It’s Raining AI at the Apsara Conference, Firing up the Stock.

By Devi Subhakesan

Alibaba (9988 HK) launched Qwen3-Max, its largest LLM to date, along with a suite of Qwen3 models and technical upgrades at its annual flagship conference, reinforcing its full-stack AI ambitions.
The stock has surged nearly 50% month-to-date, fueled by investor optimism over AI-related upside, since the August 29 investor call.
Investors now await proof that execution and performance will deliver on Alibaba’s bold technical claims and high market expectations.

Broadly Slower Services PMIs

By Phil Rush

PMIs broadly disappointed and declined relative to August, but absolute levels mostly remain robust or at least expansionary. We are not concerned by these noisy moves.
Such broad slowing seems shocking relative to the past few months, but it is historically a regular occurrence. Five of the previous twelve were at least as broadly bad.
The labour market remains tight in the euro area, softened in the UK, and steady in the US. Slower activity does not mean disinflationary slack. We stay relatively hawkish.

Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in December 2025

In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2025.
The seven potential additions are up on average 200% YTD. The eight potential deletion candidates are down on average 8.8% YTD. KOSPI is up 44.7% YTD.
The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 3.5 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.6 trillion won.

Paramount Bed Holdings (7817 JP): Another MBO Susceptible to Activism

Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP) has recommended an MBO at JPY3,530, a 32.2% premium to the last close price. The offer represents a ten-year high.
The offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range and its requested price. Hibiki has previously suggested an intrinsic value of JPY4,929.
The setup shares several traits with the Mandom MBO, and has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder or agitates for better terms.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
Tekscend, which was carved out of Toppan Printing (7911 JP) in 2022, is owned by Toppan (with a 50.1% stake) and Integral (5842 JP) (with a 49.9% stake).
The bull case rests on its leading market position, attractive market opportunity, stable underlying margins, net cash position, and attractive dividend policy.

Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung’s Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend

Pref spread looks stretched near 21–22%, likely a pullback soon. Structural re-rate needs a major Samsung narrative shift.
A surprise Samsung special dividend could pivot the pref discount; H2 FCF, Q3 prelims, and lighter capex are the key swing factors.
Expect a short-term pullback; but still stay cautious. Watch the memory upcycle and consider a discount-narrowing trade around late September.

Ecopro Co – Confirms Raising 800 Billion Won Through a PRS Using Stake in Ecopro BM

On 24 September, Ecopro Co confirmed that it will be raising 800 billion won through a PRS using its stake in Ecopro BM as the base asset.
Ecopro BM has a market cap of 11.3 trillion won. A PRS worth 800 billion won represents 7.1% of Ecopro BM’s market cap.
All in all, we believe this PRS deal worth 800 billion won is likely to negatively impact both Ecopro Co and Ecopro BM.

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Sep 24

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Chery Automobile, Alibaba, Gemvax & Kael, Zijin Gold, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis
Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup
Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking
OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer
Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps’ average multiple.
We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto’s higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.

Korea Semicon ETF Rebal October Play: 2 In, 2 Out Long-Short Setup

MTD screening results with 5 trading days left point to 2 names going out and 2 names coming in: Gemvax and Wonik IPS replace Dongjin Semichem and Jusung Engineering.
Unlike last April’s tariff-distorted +1.3% rebalance, this time we expect cleaner, more meaningful price action.
No pre-positioning seen, so I’ll target ETF rebalance day (Oct 10) and maybe take an anticipatory position a day earlier.

Zijin Gold International (紫金黄金国际) – Quality-Weighted Forward Valuation & Benchmarking

By Rahul Jain

Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

OneConnect (6638 HK/OCFT US): 28th October Vote On Ping An’s Offer

I was way off on timing. After the pre-cons were satisfied on the 9th July, I thought Ping An’s Offer for Oneconnect Financial (6638 HK) could feasibly wrap up around now.
A draft Scheme Doc was released on the 18th July. The IFA (Gram Capital) said fair & reasonable.
The Scheme Document is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 28th October and expected payment around the 28th November.

Kingsoft Cloud Placement: Second Primary Offering This Year

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is looking to raise around US$304m in a primary placement.
The company will use the proceeds to support its AI business, including infrastructure expansion and enhancement of cloud services.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Scheme Vote for Below Net Cash Offer on 28 October

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s IFA opines that Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)’s HK$2.068 (US$7.976 per ADS) offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 28 October.
The offer is below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest. Ping An is privatising OneConnect just as its revenue declines end (due to the discontinued cloud business).
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the scheme vote is high risk. This setup is best avoided.

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Sep 23

Most Read: Sony Financial Group, Samsung Electronics, BayCurrent Consulting , Zijin Gold, Japan Post Bank, Alibaba, StubHub Holdings, Hamee Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.
StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion
Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns – Basically a Nothing-Burger

In Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That’s close. SMALL EFFECT.
Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Zijin Gold IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations. For the Gold Bulls.

By Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

StubHub (STUB US): Delayed but Strong Global & US Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

StubHub Holdings (STUB US) went public on 17 September at an offer price of $23.50. It closed at $18.46 on 19 September, implying a company valuation of $6.8bn.
StubHub Holdings (STUB US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the December 2025 review.
The security is expected to be added to other US and Global indices in 2026, following the lock-up expiry that raises free float and public voting rights above minimum thresholds.

Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track

By Richard Howe

Hamee reported earnings on September 12, and the stock traded down ~6%.
The headline earnings looked awful but they included many one time and/or non cash expenses.
To me, the underlying business looks strong. The spin-off is on track for early November, and I expect it to serve as a hard catalyst to drive shares higher.

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Sep 22

Most Read: Zijin Gold, Sony Financial Group, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, BayCurrent Consulting , Jinke Smart Services, Sejin Heavy Industries Co Ltd, Technopro Holdings, Pateo Connect Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional
Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal
Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay
Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
Pateo Connect Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Growth Has Not Translated to Profits

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment). Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional

Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties holding 37.86% (at the time), bought Jinke Property (000656 CH)‘s 18.05% stake at auction on the 30th March, triggering an unconditional MGO (once completed).
The “Auction Transfer” was subject to CSDC oversight, which has now been satisfied/completed. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 26th September.

Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal

HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP).

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR’s lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It’s not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis’ ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.

Pateo Connect Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Growth Has Not Translated to Profits

Pateo Connect Technology (PTC HK) is looking to raise around US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
PTC is one of the largest domestic providers of smart cockpit and intelligent connectivity solutions in China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a PHIP update.

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Sep 21

Most Read: Ramelius Resources, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Chery Automobile, Zijin Gold, Soft99 Corp, Jinke Smart Services, Baimtec Material , Sejin Heavy Industries Co Ltd, BayCurrent Consulting and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas
Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal
The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since!
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.
However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc

Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before.
The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion.
That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Offer Now Unconditional

Back on the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
The Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties holding 37.86% (at the time), bought Jinke Property (000656 CH)‘s 18.05% stake at auction on the 30th March, triggering an unconditional MGO (once completed).
The “Auction Transfer” was subject to CSDC oversight, which has now been satisfied/completed. The Composite Doc is expected to be dispatched on or before the 26th September.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2025 index rebal event.

Another Passive Flow Trading Target Identified: Sejin Heavy in the Dec Shipbuilding ETF Rebal

HHI–Mipo merger overlaps Dec review: Mipo dropped Nov 26, desk holds cash, rebal Dec 12, new HHI shares list Dec 15 but capped at 10%.
No ad-hoc replacement for Mipo Nov 26; Dec review will add a new name, likely Sejin Heavy (075580 KS), with no other significant flows flagged.
Sejin Heavy’s recent post-rally volume cools; passive inflow ~1.5x DTV may trigger visible price action, with potential front-running 1–2 days ahead of Dec 12 ETF rebal.

The 2025 Japan September-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Friday and Monday. Or not. Historically, the day before ex-date and ex-date see outright performance.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone. This year they have gone well for equities, so odds are flows are smaller.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. The September trade appears to be more mixed.

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

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Sep 20

Most Read: Ramelius Resources, Chery Automobile, Zijin Gold, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Douzone Bizon, Shinhan SOL Shipbuilding TOP3 Plus ETF, Baimtec Material and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
Zijin Gold IPO: Strong Cornerstone Book; Should Trade at Premium to Group
Zijin Gold IPO – The World’s Fastest-Growing Gold Producer, but at What Price?
Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn
EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?
Introducing Trading Opportunities from Newly Listed Top 3 Korea Sector ETF Futures
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

Zijin Gold IPO: Strong Cornerstone Book; Should Trade at Premium to Group

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise US$3.2bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
It s a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Zijin Gold IPO – The World’s Fastest-Growing Gold Producer, but at What Price?

By Rahul Jain

Buy Case: ~20% CAGR growth to 2027E, SOE backing, and potential index inclusion make Zijin the fastest-growing gold producer globally.
Sell Case: At $40bn, Zijin trades at major-level multiples with mid-tier reserve depth, raising questions on sustainability.
Swing Factor: Gold price trajectory and flawless execution in Ghana, Laos, and Kazakhstan will determine if the IPO clears closer to the low or high end of the range.

Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment). Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?

It was reported in Seoul Economic Daily today that EQT Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake (31.4%) in Douzone Bizon (012510 KS).
A 31.4% stake of Douzone is now worth 0.91 trillion won (with no premium or discount).
Douzone’s chairman Kim has demanded up to twice the market cap of the company for the management rights premium.

Introducing Trading Opportunities from Newly Listed Top 3 Korea Sector ETF Futures

New futures launched on KRX Semis, PLUS K-Defense, and SOL Shipbuilding ETFs — the first sector-focused ETFs over 1T KRW to get futures.
All three sectors dominate Korea’s market, already absorbing liquidity, and ETF futures could trigger delta-hedge arb flows, pushing liquidity even higher.
All three indices are top-heavy, so flows in big-weight names can create spot-futures dislocations and alpha on individual spreads—especially during early MM liquidity and aggressive basis plays.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Dec25: >US$2bn Combined One-Way Flows; Exp DELs Vs Peers Pair Ideas

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the December 2025 index rebal event.

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Sep 19

Most Read: Chery Automobile, HKBN Ltd, Kokusai Electric , Xiaomi, Zijin Gold, Soft99 Corp, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, HMM Co., Ltd., Alibaba, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Interesting Implications of the Recent Methodology Changes
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc
Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum
HMM: Results of the Tender Offer
Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Inflows Vs Outflows Positive So Far But Time For Caution

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

HKBN (1310 HK): Mobile’s Offer Is Done. Now For The Back End

China Mobile (941 HK)‘s Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) will be declared unconditional tomorrow (3rd September), the first closing date.
As I type, 19.03% of shares out have tendered, lifting Mobile’s stake to 48.9%. Additional shares will tip in today and tomorrow, as per your typical last minute flurry.
It is not Mobile’s intention to delist HKBN. There will be investors playing the backend on the expectation of a higher Offer down the track.

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed too cheap in 2023 after a couple of years in the wilderness and an aborted private sale effort, blocked on antitrust grounds.
It nearly tripled, there was an offering announced at ¥5,000+ priced ¥4,500+. Shares fell back to IPO price, then bounced, and we got a July follow-on offering at ¥3,000+.
I suggested here the back end could be squeezy. It was for a hot minute, then it wasn’t. Now the stock is up 50% in 2 weeks. Watch out!

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Interesting Implications of the Recent Methodology Changes

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at the impact of the new selection methodology for the December 2025 and March 2026 rebal/review events.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc

Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before.
The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion.
That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead.

Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

HMM: Results of the Tender Offer

On 17 September, HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) announced the results of the tender offer.
Its two largest shareholders (Korea Development Bank – KDB and Korea Ocean Business Corp – KOBC) both participated in the tender offer.
With end of the tender offer, we believe there could be a renewed focus on the continued decline in the global shipping rates which is negative on HMM.

Underweight/Short Alibaba (9988 HK): Quant Model Flags Mean Reversion After 40% Post-Earnings Surge

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Alibaba (9988 HK) / Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long the Hang Seng Index and short Alibaba (9988 HK) targets a 12% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Inflows Vs Outflows Positive So Far But Time For Caution

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
Currently, we see 11 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

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Sep 18

Most Read: Santos Ltd, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Chery Automobile, Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation, Soft99 Corp, Mandom Corp, Xiaomi, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting
UK CPI Stickier For Longer
Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer
Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Interesting Implications of the Recent Methodology Changes
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Strong Rally, Weak Jewellery Demand. Growth Risks.
Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover

There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply?
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets?

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since!
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.
However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (9973 HK)‘s IPO range is HK$27.75-HK$30.75/share and will raise up to HK$10bn (US$1.3m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$169bn (US$21.7bn).
The stock should be added to the HSCI Index in December and that will make the stock eligible for inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect.
There will be no inclusion in global indexes for the next year, but there is a possibility of inclusion in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December.

UK CPI Stickier For Longer

By Phil Rush

UK inflation data confirmed the substantial upwards drift in the consensus, worth 0.6pp since May and 1.1pp over the past year, while matching final forecasts for August.
The consensus has shifted further than usual over the past month. It now aligns with our hawkish forecast until April, when hope again dominates in dragging inflation down.
Although the MPC won’t be shocked by this outcome, the persistent excess in underlying inflation still seems set to keep it holding rates. We do not expect cuts to resume.

Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float

In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure.
The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer

Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465.
The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders.

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an open letter questioning the rationale for the Mandom Corp (4917 JP) Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share.
Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki’s value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki’s criticisms are valid, while others are not.
CVC’s initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: Interesting Implications of the Recent Methodology Changes

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at the impact of the new selection methodology for the December 2025 and March 2026 rebal/review events.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Strong Rally, Weak Jewellery Demand. Growth Risks.

By Devi Subhakesan

China gold jewelry demand slumped in 2Q2025, while investment demand for coins and bars remained resilient amidst rise in gold prices, according to data released by China Gold Association.
If gold rally continues, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) faces heightened demand growth risk due to reliance on the competitive, price-sensitive, consumption-driven jewellery segment.
Chow Tai Fook’s 140% YTD rally reflects optimism on branding-driven earnings growth, but stretched valuations overlook downside risks to growth if gold prices keep rising.

Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights

Chery Automobile (9973 HK) is a Chinese automobile manufacturer. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion.
I previously discussed the IPO in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case and Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable.

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Sep 17

Most Read: Metaplanet, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Ramelius Resources, Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation, FnGuide Inc, Zijin Gold, SK Telecom, Soft99 Corp, Chery Automobile and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short
UK Jobs Find Their Floor
[Quiddity Index] VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Rebal Results – 8 ADDs, 24 DELs
Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float
Tips for Using FnGuide to Run Top-Down Screens in Korea’s Policy-Driven Market
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song
Key Findings on When to Enter Long-Short in the SKT Foreign Room Trade
Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer
Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting

[Quiddity Index] Index Consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. The ‘Tutes Are Leaving?

On 27 August, Metaplanet (3350 JP) announced a large overseas offering in line with a pause in the 20th Warrant Issuance program it had outstanding. The goal? Buy more bitcoin.
Shares had been ¥890 on the 27th, trading higher through the 29th. The offering priced at ¥553. Down 38%. Ouch. But it meant index upweight due to higher share count.
Friday post-close, global index provider M _ _ _ announced a consultation on digital asset treasury companies, suspending the upweight for Metaplanet. Watch out MSTR!

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since!
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold’s PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.
However, Zijin Gold’s earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin’s Mining’s current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off.

UK Jobs Find Their Floor

By Phil Rush

Stability in unemployment at 4.66%, while payrolls only marginally decline, suggests the labour market has found its floor before disinflationary pressures accumulate.
A narrative-breaking improvement could occur next month. Tax rises structurally explain the scale of the previous shock, with weakness seemingly not going beyond that.
Excess supply is needed to break wage growth to a target-consistent trend. Without that, the MPC should hold rates before potentially reversing by raising them in 2026.

[Quiddity Index] VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Rebal Results – 8 ADDs, 24 DELs

Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here.

Mori Hills REIT (3234) – Large Sponsor Buy in Market as % of Max Real World Float

In the past 24 months, J-REIT sponsors have bought units in their REITs at sharp discounts to PNAV to raise PNAV and reduce overhang pressure.
The goal is, basically transparently, to get PNAV to a level at which the REIT can buy more properties from the sponsor, who carries them at a much higher WACC.
Mori Building has announced a 4.99% buy on Mori Hills REIT Investment Corporation (3234 JP) which is a Very Big portion of Max Real World Float. This should influence price.

Tips for Using FnGuide to Run Top-Down Screens in Korea’s Policy-Driven Market

KRX provides broad official market data, but no consensus estimates. FnGuide aggregates broker reports, standardizes them, and delivers actionable consensus numbers for practical trading use.
FnGuide’s consensus data is solid and well-structured for screening, though coverage is limited to ~300–400 stocks, which still aligns with the practical trading universe.
FnGuide’s paid services require Korean residency or a corporate workaround, making access tough for overseas traders; realistically, we can rely on their free sites for financials, consensus, and basic screening.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
We have looked at the company’s past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

Key Findings on When to Enter Long-Short in the SKT Foreign Room Trade

SKT’s foreign stake drop sparked early divergence vs KT—long SKT/short KT paying off, though KT’s hacking risk muddies how much is pure event-driven.
This isn’t an add/delete, just a weight bump—flows lag until announcement. Aug ’20 SKT doubling factor is the cleanest comp for today’s setup.
SKT vs KT spread widened post-screening; SKT outperformed 12%. Weight bumps lag vs ins/outs, so expect similar flow—timing long-short entry matters to avoid bleeding carry.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Effissimo Sheds More Light on Its Hostile Offer

Effissimo has formally launched its hostile tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, which is 66.3% higher than the MBO price of JPY2,465.
The Board stonewalled Effissimo’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. The huge premium of Effissimo’s offer relies on lower WACC assumptions compared to the target/special committee IFA.
Management’s initial approach will be to rely on the Board to oppose the Effissimo offer. There is a good chance that Soft99 will remain listed with two large shareholders.

Chery Auto (9973 HK) IPO: No Inclusion in Global Indices; HSTECH Is Interesting