Category

TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Canon Inc, Citizen Watch, Meituan, Weibo Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Coinbase and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Canon ADR Cancellation – There May Be A Trade To Do
  • Absolutely GINORMOUS Citizen Watch (7762 JP) Buyback
  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Downgrade to SELL]: The Rise of Douyin Is Likely to Hurt Meituan
  • Meituan to Hire 10k Employees to Compete with Douyin’s Food Delivery Business
  • [Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest Key Results Add More Expectations for a 2H23E Turnaround
  • Bitcoin And The Tax-Loss Harvesting Rally

Canon ADR Cancellation – There May Be A Trade To Do

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week (on 10 February), Canon Inc (7751 JP) announced it intended to delist its ADRs from the NYSE.
  • Canon is the third Japanese company to do so in two months, after Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) announced in December and Olympus Corp (7733 JP) in January.
  • No related investment opportunity but there may be a trade to do.

Absolutely GINORMOUS Citizen Watch (7762 JP) Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Citizen Watch (7762 JP) reported Q3 earnings, and a BIG buyback.
  • It is a VERY BIG BUYBACK at up to 75mm shares (25.61% of shares out), with an allocation of up to ¥40bn (which is ~22.1% at last price).
  • The buyback is to be executed over the next year. Buyback structure (undisclosed) matters and shareholder structure matters too. There is a big short. This could get really interesting.

[Meituan (3690 HK) Downgrade to SELL]: The Rise of Douyin Is Likely to Hurt Meituan

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Meituan to report 18% YoY topline growth in C4Q22, in line with cons. Our non-IFRS net margin est. is 1.9ppt higher than cons.
  • In-Store would be impacted by Douyin’s category expansion and deepening penetration in lower-tier cities.
  • We downgrade Meituan to SELL and cut TP to HK$137 due to pressure from competition for in-store.

Meituan to Hire 10k Employees to Compete with Douyin’s Food Delivery Business

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • On Tuesday last week, short-video app Douyin announced that it plans to offer its food delivery service in more Chinese cities expanding its current trial in Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai.
  • Following this, on Wednesday last week, Meituan announced that it plans to recruit 10,000 workers in 1Q2023 across a number of its business divisions including technology development and customer services.
  • Though we don’t expect Douyin’s entry into food delivery to have large impact, increased competitive pressure and headcount increase would drag down Meituan’s profitability in the near-term.

[Weibo (WB US) Target Price Change]: Rebound After Temporary Disturbance, Maintain BUY

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Weibo’s top line/bottom line would be 1.3%/9.0% vs cons., as the continuous cost-saving measures offset the impacts of temporary disturbance caused by reopening. 
  • We remain optimistic about Weibo’s rebound in 1H23 as the macro improves, with top line/bottom line beating cons. by 2.2%/5.5% in 2023.
  • Reiterate BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 26.9, implying 11.7X PE in 2023.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest Key Results Add More Expectations for a 2H23E Turnaround

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • This week we digest key takeaways from some of the latest key industry results that came out (ASE Technologies (TW), Novatek (TW), and Tokyo Electron (JP)).
  • ASE and Tokyo Electron exhibited their insulated positions during the current inventory corrections happening, delivering decent margins and beating expectations. Novatek also beat expectations.
  • Forward expectations are generally for a worse 1Q23E ahead followed by the beginning of a recovery in 2Q23E. Is this becoming simply the consensus view, however?

Bitcoin And The Tax-Loss Harvesting Rally

By Kevin George

  • Bitcoin sold off in December and rallied in January for a reason.
  • Big banks are coming with a digital payments option. Big banks will have a digital payment option in the coming days.
  • Bitcoin sold off last month and rallied again in January, with a rise in popularity in the wake of contagion.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kakao Pay, Tencent, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Electronic Arts, Bill.Com Holdings, KLA-Tencor Corp, Corning Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included
  • ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Electronic Arts (EA): Collaboration With Marvel Entertainment & Other Drivers
  • Bill.com Holdings: Major Drivers
  • KLA Corp: New Equipment Launch & Other Drivers
  • Corning Inc: Gorilla Glass Victus 2 & Other Developments

MSCI Korea Index Rebalance: Kakao Pay Included

By Douglas Kim

  • MSCI announced its MSCI Korea index rebalance on 10 February. Kakao Pay (377300 KS) was the only company to be included in the MSCI Korea index.
  • There were also nine Korean companies included in MSCI Small Cap index including Osstem Implant, DearU, and ISC Co. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) are higher probability potential candidates for inclusion in MSCI Korea Index rebalance in May. 

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2023) – Hesai, Oasis, Mankind, Greatpower, Ruipeng, CATL, Nissan/Renault

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Hesai Group (HSAI US) provided the first Asia linked listing for the year.
  • Things were quiet on the placement front owing to the annual earnings reporting season.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Electronic Arts (EA): Collaboration With Marvel Entertainment & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Electronic Arts delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter.
  • In the quarter more than 10 million new players entered into the community which drives strong engagement.
  • The player network of EA also continues to grow and its flagship, EA SPORTS FIFA delivered strong engagement this quarter across the company’s entire ecosystem.

Bill.com Holdings: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bill.com generated decent second-quarter result with revenues beyond market expectations and narrower-than-expected losses.
  • Its extensive and expanding partner and network ecosystem offered a competitive advantage by allowing them to access new firms efficiently.
  • With the joint objective of generating additional value for SMBs, they collaborate with an SMB’s most reliable advisors, including their accounting firms and financial institutions.

KLA Corp: New Equipment Launch & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KLA Corp managed to deliver an all-around beat in its last quarterly results, demonstrating steady execution despite the supply chain issues.
  • Their customers also continue to invest in technological transitions regardless of the business situation which is a good sign.
  • Among new launches, KLA Corporation introduced the Axion T2000 X-ray metrology equipment for memory chip producers that could become a good revenue driver.

Corning Inc: Gorilla Glass Victus 2 & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Corning faced the impact of a series of pandemic-driven effects during the last quarter but the company managed to deliver an all-around beat.
  • The purchase of laptops, tablets, smartphones, televisions, and cars was below the company’s estimation in the last quarter.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Binance Coin, Geolah, Velodyne Lidar Inc, myFirst, PixCap and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • How to Spot Artificial Volume
  • SG Mobility Startup Offers Zero Commission Fees to Challenge Grab
  • Tech Talk: Autonomous Vehicle LiDAR 101
  • Exclusive: SG Kidtech Firm Bags $2.2m Seed Round
  • PixCap Scores US$2.8M to Allow Users to Find, Edit, Export 3D Content in Minutes

How to Spot Artificial Volume

By Kaiko

  • Wash trading was at one point a pervasive problem in cryptocurrency markets.
  • Today, most major exchanges have strict anti-wash trading measures, which has drastically reduced the problem since the ICO-led trading boom of 2017-18.
  • Yet, due to the relatively low barriers to entry for launching an exchange, this type of market manipulation is far from eradicated on lesser-known, unregulated venues. 

SG Mobility Startup Offers Zero Commission Fees to Challenge Grab

By Tech in Asia

  • Singapore-based Geolah – a mobility startup – wants to remove commission fees altogether.
  • Instead of charging drivers commission fees, Singh said his startup will earn revenue through rebates from digital payments, insurance, and automotive firms. 

  • Revenue will also come from ads, with the firm saying that it has onboarded notable names like Shell and Klook.


Tech Talk: Autonomous Vehicle LiDAR 101

By Water Tower Research

  • LiDAR works by emitting laser beams and measuring the time it takes for the beams to bounce back to the sensor.
  • By using this information, LiDAR can create a 3D map of the surrounding environment, including the location and shape of objects, such as buildings, trees, pedestrians, and vehicles.
  • One of the main advantages of LiDAR is its accuracy and range.

Exclusive: SG Kidtech Firm Bags $2.2m Seed Round

By Tech in Asia

  • The company has expanded to offer watch phones, headphones, drones, and even a social media network for kids.

  • Their mission is to help kids aged between three and 12 to “stay connected socially without the usual ills of social media.”

  • The startup’s revenue mainly comes from sales of its devices, ranging from a US$20 digital sketchpad to a US$199 watch phone. 

PixCap Scores US$2.8M to Allow Users to Find, Edit, Export 3D Content in Minutes

By e27

  • Singapore-based PixCap, a web-based 3D design platform, has raised US$2.8 million in seed funding led by Sequoia Surge.

  • Founded in 2020 by Cyril Nie (CTO) and Looi, PixCap allows users with no 3D experience to find, edit and export 3D content, including images for graphic designs and animations for landing pages and social media.

  • Designers, developers and consumers can use PixCap to create 3D content for graphic designs, games and AR/VR.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: CATL (A), Samsung Sds, Tokyo Electron, Renesas Electronics, Baidu, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), OASIS Corp, Krafton Inc, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), New Relic Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable
  • Discussing the Timing of the Samsung SDS Block Deal by Lee Seo-Hyun
  • Tokyo Electron (8035) | MAGIC Drivers
  • Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.
  • Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz
  • NTT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter but Solid Mobile/Data Performance
  • Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results
  • Krafton: Improving Corporate Governance Through Shares Cancellation & Stock Based Compensation
  • EQD | FXI US: Buying the Dip Using Options
  • New Relic: Impressive 3QFY23. Profitable Growth Accelerated Driven By Efficiency Initiatives

CATL GDR Listing Early Look – Past Deals Have Done Well. Valuations Somewhat Justifiable

By Clarence Chu

  • CATL (A) (300750 CH) is looking to raise up to US$6bn in its upcoming Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, China Securities, Goldman Sachs, and UBS.
  • The relatively large listing comes after the firm has been undertaking a series of capital raisings, since it’s A-share debut back in Jun 2018, to fund its expansion. 
  • In this note, we discuss GDR timelines, and the firm’s recent financial performance/valuations.

Discussing the Timing of the Samsung SDS Block Deal by Lee Seo-Hyun

By Sanghyun Park

  • The term of Lee’s trust contract with Hana Bank is from February 2nd to April 28th, and the volume is 1.95% of SO, the total remaining quantity owned by Lee.
  • The price movement on the day the previous block deals by the Lee family were executed was substantial. Of particular note is that SDS showed the most significant price impact.
  • We should focus on the possibility that a block deal will come to the market much earlier, as SDS is in short-term overbought territory from a valuation perspective.

Tokyo Electron (8035) | MAGIC Drivers

By Mark Chadwick

  • TEL 3QF23 operating profit -26% YoY to Y115b, beating analyst estimates
  • Full year operating profit guidance revised up Y546->Y580b, ahead of Street estimates
  • MAGIC – Metaverse, Autonomous mobility, Greentech, IoT, Communication Services – to drive long-term semicon demand

Renesas – Good Results, Great Cashflow, Another Buyback, But Drift.

By Travis Lundy

  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) today reported full-year 2022 earnings with revenues 0.032% higher than the high end of guidance, which was better than consensus. OP was not as good.
  • They have guided Q1 only, with revenues up 0.2-4.6%, and non-GAAP GPM -3.9% to 54.5%, and OPM -6.6% to 32.5%. But they also announced a Tender Offer Buyback. 
  • The buyback is smaller than I’d like, but the company has added cash despite last year’s tender offer and repaying bank borrowings. Lots to like here. 

Baidu (Bidu.US): AIGC to Bring More Potential and Empower Search Biz

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that Baidu’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line would miss cons. by (1.6%)/(3.1%), mostly driven by the temporal disturbance of increasing COVID cases after reopening in Dec. 2022. 
  • However, we remain optimistic about 2023 outlook: 1) Baidu’s ads would be recovering quickly in 1H23 as macro improves, and 2) leading position in AIGC development gives Baidu more potential.
  • Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$170, implying 17.2X PE in 2023

NTT (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Quarter but Solid Mobile/Data Performance

By Kirk Boodry

  • Segment results for DoCoMo and NTT Data were impressive as NTT plans to restructure both businesses start to bear fruit
  • DoCoMo is also leading MNOs in moving past the impact of regulatory driven price reductions with Q3 service revenue largely flat YoY supported by 5G upsell and subscriber wins
  • Rising utility costs have had a material impact on profitability for NTT East and West but management believes upside in other areas and cost discipline provides some offset

Oasis Corp IPO Preliminary Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • The local media mentioned that the preliminary book building results of the Oasis IPO were terrible. 
  • Therefore, the company is likely to either materially lower the IPO price range or postpone the IPO altogether.
  • Our base case valuation of Oasis Corp is target price of 24,847 won per share, which is 18.5% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 

Krafton: Improving Corporate Governance Through Shares Cancellation & Stock Based Compensation

By Douglas Kim

  • Krafton has announced a meaningful shareholder return policy including shares buyback, cancellation, and share based compensation in the next three years.
  • The combination of improving shareholder return policy along with new games development and China’s opening up of its game industry to overseas game makers are likely to positively impact Krafton.
  • Given Krafton’s current market cap of 8.9 trillion won, the estimated share buybacks of 713 billion won would represent 8% of market cap over three years. 

EQD | FXI US: Buying the Dip Using Options

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have paused for breath this month underperforming most other global indices
  • The outlook for the region remains strong as reopening strength gains momentum and the Government continue to announce new supportive measures
  • We favour a buy the dip strategy and suggest using derivatives to play it

New Relic: Impressive 3QFY23. Profitable Growth Accelerated Driven By Efficiency Initiatives

By Andrei Zakharov

  • New Relic reported a solid quarter pushing shares up ~18% during the regular trading session as y/y revenue growth accelerated while gross margin and operating income continued to expand.
  • We like New Relic’s fundamentals and transformation plan driven across the business. The company raised the outlook for FY23 revenue as 3QFY23 results exceeded guidance. 
  • New Relic invites investors to an Analyst Day in May, where the company will announce the FY24 financial plan details and give more color about the updated GTM strategy. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: CELSYS, China Unicom Hong Kong, Kuaishou Technology, Naver Corp, Nitro Software Ltd, UBTech Robotics, Internet Initiative Japan, FUJIFILM Holdings, A10 Networks and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2023)
  • China Telcos: Send In The Clouds
  • Kuaishou(1024.HK)4Q22 Preview: Competition and Restructure Are Pending Issues
  • Naver (2023 High Conviction Update): Turbo-Charged by Expected Launch of Korean Version of ChatGPT
  • Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence
  • UBTech Robotics IPO Preview
  • Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted
  • IIJ (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Solid Quarter as Recurring Sales Expand
  • Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further
  • ATEN: The Inevitable Push Out

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • This insight is a follow-up to TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2023) 
  • Our top pick from the last insight CELSYS (3663 JP) (previously known as Artspark) has gained ~14% in roughly a month.

China Telcos: Send In The Clouds

By David Blennerhassett

  • The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.
  • This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.
  • The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.

Kuaishou(1024.HK)4Q22 Preview: Competition and Restructure Are Pending Issues

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect that Kuaishou’s 4Q22 top line and bottom line would be 0.2%/3.7% vs cons, as major business lines are recovering with stimuli of CNY promotion campaigns. 
  • However, we estimate that its 2023 top line/bottom line would miss cons. by (0.9%)/(14.2%) due to our concerns of increasing competition and internal restructuring.
  • Maintain SELL rating but raise TP to HK$ 56 to reflect on-track recovering trend as the macro improves. 

Naver (2023 High Conviction Update): Turbo-Charged by Expected Launch of Korean Version of ChatGPT

By Douglas Kim

  • Naver plans to launch its own Korean version of ChatGPT in 1H 2023.
  • We believe that this will act as an important catalyst that is likely to further fuel Naver’s share price higher. 
  • Naver has been our high conviction call in 2023 and we continue to have a Positive view of Naver. 

Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence

By Arun George

  • Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has finally granted Potentia due diligence access until 22 February. Subject to satisfactory due diligence, Potentia could increase its offer from A$2.00 to A$2.20-2.30 per share.
  • Alludo’s A$2.15 off-market takeover offer is its best and final offer. Alludo’s offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (currently at 12.53%) and closes on 3 March.
  • Potentia’s dogged pursuit despite the Board’s stonewalling suggests a desire to get a deal done. At the last close, the gross spread to Potentia’s potential offer is 2.3% to 7.0%.

UBTech Robotics IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • UBTech Robotics is trying to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. UBTech Robotics is a leading artificial intelligence based robotics company headquartered in China.
  • UBTech Robotics received very fat valuations in the past couple of years. Back in January 2021, it was reported that the company’s valuation reached as high as $7 billion.
  • In China’s smart education robot based solution market, UBTech Robotics is the number one player. 

Nitro Software: Potentia Still In The Mix As DD Granted

By David Blennerhassett

  • Adobe rival Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has granted Potentia Capital due diligence through to the 22 February on the possibility it sweetens its Offer to A$2.20-A$2.30/share. 
  • Alludo’s hands are tied to its A$2.15/share Offer price, which it has declared ‘best and final’ and will not be increased – even if a superior proposal emerges.
  • But Potentia pitching an Offer A$0.01/share above Alludo’s Offer won’t be sufficient for Alludo and other shareholders to tender. 

IIJ (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Solid Quarter as Recurring Sales Expand

By Kirk Boodry

  • IIJ delivered double-digit revenue growth for a third consecutive quarter as corporate demand for digitization remains robust
  • In addition the expected expansion of cloud (+15%) and security service (+21%) sales, mobile sales grew 9% as IIJ moved clearly past the impact of industrywide rate reductions
  • Quarterly EBITDA reached a record high even with modest margin contraction YoY

Fujifilm: Robust Quarter; Recent M&A to Drive Healthcare and Materials Biz Further

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • FUJIFILM Holdings (4901 JP) delivered 3QFY03/2023 results today. Revenue and OP increased 13.5% and 4.1% YoY respectively to JPY744.4bn (consensus JPY717.1bn) and JPY81.8bn (consensus JPY80.0bn).
  • Covid-19 related projects running its course had a slight impact on  healthcare segment but we would not be too worried as new product launches and markets will offset that decline.
  • Market continues to value Fujifilm as an image company and not a healthcare stock and there is more than 30% upside to the current share price.

ATEN: The Inevitable Push Out

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN reported better than expected fourth quarter results, but it was the lack of quantitative revenue guidance that garnering all the attention
  • We had highlighted increased macro risks in our January update leading to 2023 becoming dependent on the second half of the year.
  • The first quarter is seasonally the slowest period of the year for ATEN, which could be the reason for management taking a conservative approach with 2023 guidance.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nintendo, Softbank Group, Z Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, ROHM Co Ltd, Apple, Vection Technologies Ltd, Pinterest Inc, Soluna Holdings, Ebay Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch
  • Softbank Group (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Defensive Stance Intact as VF Losses Continue
  • Z Holdings (4689.JP) Upgrade to BUY: Leaner Business Lines with PayPay Drives Growth
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Balloon Incident Could Worsen China Restrictions & Key Earnings Readthroughs
  • Japanese Companies with Low Debt Should Evaluate Profitability in Terms of ROA Rather than ROE
  • Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron Update: Apple Outperformed 12%, Consider Unwind
  • Vection Technologies – Space travel in the metaverse
  • PINS 4Q22: We Don’t Chase Vanity MAUs
  • Project Dorothy on Cusp of Energization; Revenue Generation Draws Closer
  • eBay to Connect Fans With Athletes Using Sports NFTs

Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nintendo reported operating profit of 190b yen (-8% YoY), falling far short of Street expectations
  • The Nintendo Switch is now a six-year old console and demand is exhausted. A normalization of chip/supply chain issues benefits the newer PS5
  • Our thesis is that the hardware cycle has peaked and that the share price will head lower in tandem with the dwindling top line

Softbank Group (Neutral) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Defensive Stance Intact as VF Losses Continue

By Kirk Boodry

  • Management pushed a conservative / defensive line for Q3 as markets remain uncertain and investment losses continue
  • Revenue growth at ARM was better than expected as licensing revenues rebounded strongly. Guidance for the timing of an IPO (sometime in 2023) remains unchanged
  • This was a slightly disappointing quarter but hopes were not high heading into the print with the discount hovering around 35%

Z Holdings (4689.JP) Upgrade to BUY: Leaner Business Lines with PayPay Drives Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • ZHD F3Q22 (C4Q22) net revenue slightly missed our est. and cons. by (2%) and (1%). Adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with our est. excluding impact from PayPay consolidation. 
  • PayPay will continue to be the growth driver for ZHD with increase in unit spending supported by premium credit card offering and deepening integration with group’s other services.
  • We upgrade ZHD to BUY and raise our TP to JPY 435 to reflect beat in profitability and upsides in PayPay

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Balloon Incident Could Worsen China Restrictions & Key Earnings Readthroughs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • China Balloon Incident — Negative news for China semiconductor restrictions; Up to 45nm may now be hobbled by Japan & Netherlands joining.
  • Hon Hai — January sales results strong, could help market look forward to Hon Hai’s future growth.
  • Mediatek Results & Upcoming Results — Signs of slight smartphone stablization, also we highlight key Auto & Industrial Semiconductor related results ahead.

Japanese Companies with Low Debt Should Evaluate Profitability in Terms of ROA Rather than ROE

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While OP margin remains flat, ROE increased moderately due to higher in total-asset-turnover. Going forward, the drivers of ROE growth are likely to continue through reductions in cash and cross-shareholdings.
  • It would be more likely to find it in a company that already has high operating profit margin and where ROE can be improved by improving the total asset turnover.
  • Based on my analysis so far, I assume that companies that raised their stock price valuations did so by clarifying their cash allocation policies and engaging in communication with investors.

Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron Update: Apple Outperformed 12%, Consider Unwind

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Since our Long Apple vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron piece, Apple has outperformed by 11.7% in USD-adjusted terms.
  • Apple has reported results recently, thus the next major events could be Quanta and Pegatron results.
  • Given Apple has outperformed by a significant amount, we believe the best of Apple’s relative outperformance is done for the near-term. One can thus look for levels to unwind.

Vection Technologies – Space travel in the metaverse

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies (VR1) reported A$4.6m in Q223 receipts, up A$0.2m q-o-q. Recent announcements of the company’s selection to develop virtual reality (VR) and metaverse technologies to promote space travel underpin the vital role partnerships play in the company’s strategy. VR1 also reported progress in commercial opportunities in defence, aerospace and service agencies, among others, all expected to bear fruit in the latter half of the current fiscal year. As such, management reiterated its FY23 revenue guidance of A$24–26m. We are encouraged by the Q223 results and maintain our FY23 forecasts.


PINS 4Q22: We Don’t Chase Vanity MAUs

By Aaron Gabin

  • MAUs grew just 5M or 1% QoQ while ARPU was flat. Little turnaround traction evident despite lots of empty statistics offered.
  • Longtime CFO Todd Morgenfeld departing, offers vague margin expansion promises.
  • Revenue and opex guidance for 1Q23 below consensus…not good for a consensus long.

Project Dorothy on Cusp of Energization; Revenue Generation Draws Closer

By Water Tower Research

  • Soluna’s flagship Project Dorothy has now entered ERCOT’s operations phase, putting it on the cusp of energizing and generating revenues. 
  • Texas electric grid operator ERCOT, which has held up the project while it created and implemented its Large Flexible Load approval process, has now moved the project through both of its multi-month-long planning and modeling phases where the project was evaluated for its impact on the Texas electric grid.
  • A key milestone that allows Soluna to finalize the financing and set operational plans to energize.

eBay to Connect Fans With Athletes Using Sports NFTs

By Sporting Crypto

  • In May 2022, I wrote about ebay, and how they were ‘skating to where the puck is going’ after they announced an exclusive deal to sell Ice Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky NFTs, at the time.
  • We haven’t seen much of (2) from Ebay so far, but it looks like they’re trying to push hard on the natively digital front.
  • One of the things that I also wrote about was how important a place Ebay became for the reselling of physical collectables during the Covid pandemic.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Jeio, Com2us Corp, Delta Electronics Thai, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Advanced Micro Devices, Immersion Corporation, Ubiquiti Inc., Light Science Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft
  • JEIO IPO: Book Building Results Analysis
  • Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea’s Game Industry
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal
  • Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers
  • IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating
  • UI: Margin Rebound with Revenue Growth
  • Light Science Technologies Holdings – Pluses and minuses of high energy costs

China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft

By Ming Lu

  • WeChat Usage increased by 23% YoY in physical store during Chinese New Year holidays.
  • JD.com will close its e-commerce platforms in Indonesia and Thailand in March.
  • Microsoft denies a layoff plan in China, but the details of the plan are spreading.

JEIO IPO: Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Jeio (418550 KS) announced its IPO price of 13,000 won, which was at the high end of the recently revised down IPO price range of 10,000 won to 13,000 won.
  • There were 1,174 institutional investors that participated in this IPO survey. The demand ratio was 352.6 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of JEIO is target price of 12,575 won per share, which is 3.3% lower than the IPO price 13,000 won.

Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea’s Game Industry

By Douglas Kim

  • Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea’s game industry.
  • Our base case valuation of Com2uS suggests a target price of 97,321 won which is 49% higher than current price.
  • Finally, the company is expected to launch at least 3-4 promising new games this year. All in all, we have a positive view of Com2uS Corp. 

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas


Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now

By Moat Investing

  • Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.
  • The key highlights from the announcement included an increase in share buybacks, reductions in capital expenditures, and a lowered outlook for operating expenses.
  • Since the release of new earnings by Meta (NASDAQ:META), we have been following up on our last report, which got a very positive response.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AMD had a strong quarter and managed an all-around beat despite the fact that the company navigated quite a challenging macro environment.
  • The company also launched the Ryzen 7000 mobile APUs, RX 7000 laptop GPUs, and V-cache chips.
  • For the company’s Xilinx data center as well as networking products, AMD had strong sales in the quarter.

IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Immersion (IMMR) with a Buy Rating and $11 target
  • IMMR is a haptics technology developer that has undergone a management change that could further result in a series of material developments
  • IMMR naming Eric Singer as its CEO suggests there is more to come from IMMR than the cost cuts IMMR undertook two years ago when Mr. Singer joined the Board

UI: Margin Rebound with Revenue Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti (UI) reported fiscal second quarter (December) results affirming our expectations of the enterprise segment being the source of growth
  • Ubiquiti has introduced several new products lines over the past two years, which we believe are becoming an important part of the revenue story
  • The product mix and reduced shipping costs resulted in Ubiquiti reporting gross margin of 40 percent. This is the first time in four quarters gross margin reached 40 percent

Light Science Technologies Holdings – Pluses and minuses of high energy costs

By Edison Investment Research

In December, Light Science Technologies Holdings (LSTH) noted that high input costs have resulted in strong interest in the group’s controlled environment agriculture (CEA) products because they help growers operate more efficiently. This demand has generated a sales pipeline for the group of quoted work worth more than £60m (as of December 2022), including forward orders and contracts of £18m (contingent on meeting certain milestones). However, high input costs have caused growers to defer capital investment decisions, resulting in longer sales cycles. This has adversely affected FY22 trading because some anticipated revenue streams for the CEA division are now more likely to materialise in FY23 rather than FY22. Based on this information, we are introducing estimates for FY22 and FY23.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hesai Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

HESAI Group IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Hesai Group is implied market cap of US$3.4 billion or target price of US$27.1 per share.
  • Our target price is 43% higher than the high end of the IPO price of US$19 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of this IPO. 
  • The company’s superior technology in the LiDAR product segment along with its global market leadership should help Hesai Group to successfully complete this IPO despite political risks related to China. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hesai Group, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Harris Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HESAI Group IPO Preview
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • L3Harris Technologies Inc: Acquisition Of Aerojet Rocketdyne & Other Drivers

HESAI Group IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Hesai Group (HSAI US) is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next several weeks in the United States, planning to raise as much as $171 million.
  • The ADAS penetration rate in China is expected to surge from 4.6% in 2022 to 11.2% in 2024 and 87.9% in 2030.
  • The company is a leading maker of laser-based LiDAR sensors in China. The company’s major customers in the ADAS segment include Li Auto, Jidu, and Lotus.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

L3Harris Technologies Inc: Acquisition Of Aerojet Rocketdyne & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • L3Harris finished the year on a high note and delivered an all-around beat while continuing to build momentum going into 2023.
  • The RL10 is a high-end upper-stage engine that the ELA has ordered well over 100 of for the new Vulcan launch vehicle.
  • We remain optimistic about the company’s future growth and maintain our ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Grab, Pushpay Holdings, Softbank Corp, Intel Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Sap Se Sponsored Adr, Snap Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab(GRAB.US) 4Q22 Preview: Tailwinds from Share Gain and Rebound in Mobility
  • Pushpay Holdings: 3rd March Scheme Meeting. IA Says Fair
  • Pushpay (PPH NZ): Scheme Vote on 3 March but Deal Risks Are Emerging
  • Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Modest Mobile Improvement, on Track to Meet Targets
  • Intel Corp: Launch Of 13th Generation Lineup & Other Drivers
  • Amazon: Recent Quarter Is A Reminder That Red Flags Should Not Be Ignored
  • Amazon 4Q22: When Does AWS Trough?
  • SAP SE ADR: Launch Of SAP Build & Other Drivers
  • Snap Inc: New Promotional Campaign & Other Developments

Grab(GRAB.US) 4Q22 Preview: Tailwinds from Share Gain and Rebound in Mobility

By Shawn Yang

  • In C4Q22, We expect Grab to report total revenue 2% higher than cons., and non-IFRS net loss narrower than cons.. 
  • With competitors cutting back on heavy incentives, Grab has gained share under easing competitive environment in food delivery market in 2022. We expect this trend to sustain in 2023.
  • Mobility is expected to benefit from rebound of tourism and generate stable margin. Pullbacks from off-platform financial services continue to support improvement. Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 4.0.

Pushpay Holdings: 3rd March Scheme Meeting. IA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 October, church donor management play Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ/PPH AU) announced a Scheme with BGH/Sixth Street at NZ$1.34/share,  a 30.1% premium to undisturbed.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. The shareholder meeting will take place on the 3 March. The independent advisor concluded the Offer price is within its valuation range. 
  • Assuming 11 April payment, this is trading at a gross/annualised spread of 3.0%/18.0%.

Pushpay (PPH NZ): Scheme Vote on 3 March but Deal Risks Are Emerging

By Arun George

  • Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)’s NZ$1.34 offer from Sixth Street/BGH is barely within the IE’s valuation range of NZ$1.33-1.53 per share. There is no “fair and reasonable” statement from the IE.
  • Astonishingly, Sixth Street/BGH wrote to the Takeovers Panel to raise concerns about the IE’s report. The Takeovers Panel concluded that the IE report is not misleading or deceptive. 
  • A relatively concentrated register poses a risk, particularly considering the IE’s valuation range and the re-rating of a key peer. While possible, the probability of a bump is low. 

Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Modest Mobile Improvement, on Track to Meet Targets

By Kirk Boodry

  • Consumer mobile revenue fell 7% but that partly reflects how sales were reported a year ago. Reported ARPU was down 5% whilst price cut erosion narrowed
  • Operating income YTD is 94% of full-year targets leaving room for Softbank to achieve its goal even with increased investment spending
  • This was a relatively uneventful quarter and we remain at Buy

Intel Corp: Launch Of 13th Generation Lineup & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intel delivered a weak result, failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings given the persisting macroeconomic headwinds in the semiconductor industry.
  • Intel continues to integrate AXG into CCG and DCAI to deliver a more effective go-to-market capability, accelerating the scale of these businesses while further cutting costs.
  • The management believes their first EUV-deploying modes, Intel 4 and 3, will significantly improve transistor performance per watt and density.

Amazon: Recent Quarter Is A Reminder That Red Flags Should Not Be Ignored

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Amazon’s share price has fallen 25% since April of last year, sparking a fear of missing out.
  • The pressure for cost-cutting measures will likely increase as profitability and free cash flow remain elusive, according to Amazon.
  • Amazon has seen a 25% drop in its share price in January.

Amazon 4Q22: When Does AWS Trough?

By Aaron Gabin

  • AWS revenue grew 20% YoY to $21.3B, about $400M or ~2% below consensus…and a 700bp deceleration.
  • AWS margins of 24% were down 200bps QoQ / 600bps YoY as continued optimization of customer contracts continues to weigh on margins.
  • Amazon advertising continues to dramatically outpace all other online platforms, highlighting the moat of first party data at the point of purchase, unimpacted by Apple.

SAP SE ADR: Launch Of SAP Build & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SAP delivered a mixed set of results in the final quarter of 2022 as it surpassed the revenue expectations of Wall Street but missed out on earnings.
  • This year, cloud revenue also surpassed support revenue to become SAP’s single-largest revenue stream.
  • Their overall SaaS and PaaS portfolio grew significantly, with SaaS cloud revenue increasing by 25% and PaaS cloud revenue increasing by 45%.

Snap Inc: New Promotional Campaign & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Snap continued to encounter massive challenges due to increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds.
  • In the quarter, the company released communities to expand its content offerings and onboarded several new media partners.
  • The company has also launched new Snapchat+ features to increase audience engagement on the platform in the quarter.

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