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TMT/Internet

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Alchip Technologies, Fadu , Palantir Technologies , Carly Holdings, Akamai Technologies, Blackline Inc, Sabre Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers
  • Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers
  • BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers
  • Sabre Corporation: Can The Acquisition Of Techsembly Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow

By Travis Lundy

  • Niche Japanese Semiconductor Production Equipment specialist Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) last Thursday announced the TSE approved its late October IPO (with indicative pricing, shares to be sold, and initial prospectus).
  • This insight looks at initial shareholder structure, selling group, post-IPO shareholder structure with index inclusion timing, and follow-on flow possibilities. 
  • At ¥435bn indicative market cap, it will be the largest IPO in Japan since pre-covid, despite coming in a cycle trough. I expect it will be hot. 

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • At present, I do not expect any index changes for the T50 index but there could be one change for the T100 index.
  • More interestingly, out of the top 10 T100 Potential DELETEs, there are five TDIV members and it will be worth tracking their rankings over the next 2 months.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusion and exclusion candidates for the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023. 
  • The 8 lowest market cap stocks in KOSDAQ 150 are among the main candidates to be excluded from the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
  • Potential inclusions for KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023 include Fadu, GigaVis, Jeio, PhilEnergy, and Manyo Factory.

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies maintained a GAAP operating income in Q2 and achieved GAAP profitability for the quarter.
  • In Q2, Palantir closed deals in the US commercial market in about 30 sectors, including pharmaceuticals, energy, consumer goods, utilities, health care, construction, automotive, transportation infrastructure, etc.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings has announced 100% growth in subscription revenue in July/August against the September 2022 quarter.
  • The annualised revenue run rate is now $3.0m vs $2.5m in the June 2023 quarter and Carly has maintained a strong ratio of subscription revenue to transaction value at 66%.
  • These outcomes are in line with our base-case expectations for H1 FY24.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Akamai Technologies, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Akamai is pursuing a completely different approach to cloud computing, making it fully distributed with many more points of presence than typical systems provide.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine, Inc. surpassed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • BlackLine generated $145 million in total revenue in the quarter and $31 million in non-GAAP net profitability.
  • BlackLine also completed its largest middle market transaction ever, driven by the demand for cutting-edge solutions to challenging intracompany workflows.

Sabre Corporation: Can The Acquisition Of Techsembly Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sabre Corporation managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • During the second quarter, the company reached its technology migration milestones, and it is still on schedule to meet its longer-term financial and operational objectives.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Lasertec Corp, China Mobile, Micron Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Huawei Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
  • Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months
  • Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs


The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.

Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron’s earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
  • Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our ‘reversion catch up’ trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
  • SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron results this week. The company is likely to call a trough for memory prices and highlight its development of the next most advanced type of HBM DRAM for AI. 
  • Taiwan’s market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed Nvidia over the last three months.
  • Intel’s Innovation Conference wrapped up last week, with its new Meteor Lake PC CPUs launching Dec 14th, which is positive for the PC supply chain. Intel shares fell slightly however.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.
  • BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.
  • BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mediatek Inc, Posco DX, Splunk Inc, Ipg Photonics, Trimble Navigation, ZoomInfo Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception
  • KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process
  • Splunk and $28B Mega Deal: Will Cisco Overpay For San Francisco-Based Software Company?
  • IPG Photonics Corporation: The E-Mobility Surge Pushing the Revenue Boundaries! – Major Drivers
  • Trimble Inc.: Can The New LIMS PRO Become A Major Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
  • ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.: The Brand Makeover to Establish Dominance in Go-To-Market! – Major Drivers


MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

By Patrick Liao

  • There is a misconception that “MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F.”
  • Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.
  • Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.

KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index. 
  • The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.
  • We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.

Splunk and $28B Mega Deal: Will Cisco Overpay For San Francisco-Based Software Company?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Splunk shares outperformed in 2023 and rose ~69% as total ARR exceeded $4B, operating loss narrowed, and FCF margin improved. The company executed well to drive long-term durable growth.
  • Over the past 2 years, Splunk transformed itself into a cloud company. In 2022, WSJ reported that Cisco made a $20B+ takeover offer. However, no deal was on the table. 
  • Following M&A rumors, the company’s cloud transition, and strong fundamentals, Cisco offered a $157 per share to acquire Splunk in a $28B mega all-cash deal on September 21, 2023. 

IPG Photonics Corporation: The E-Mobility Surge Pushing the Revenue Boundaries! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IPG Photonics Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • They achieved substantial revenue growth in the welding and cleaning applications, led by robust e-mobility and handheld welding solution sales.
  • Additionally, 3D printing and solar cell manufacturing applications have seen increased revenue as a result of better investments in these industries.

Trimble Inc.: Can The New LIMS PRO Become A Major Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Trimble delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Financially, Trimble demonstrated a robust performance, delivering an EBITDA margin of 25.3% and a strong gross margin of 64.2%, surpassing previous years.
  • In the quarter, Trimble introduced LIMS PRO, a cloud-hosted iteration of its LIMS for sawmill raw material procurement.

ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.: The Brand Makeover to Establish Dominance in Go-To-Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ZoomInfo Technologies delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • In the second quarter, ZoomInfo reported $309 million in revenue and an adjusted operating income of $126 million, boasting a margin of 41%.
  • While examining customer health, the company anticipates that budgetary constraints and downward renewal pressures will persist in the near future, resulting in adjusted full-year expectations of 12% revenue growth.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), Symbio Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results
  • Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer


China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results

By Eric Chen

  • The sector sees dramatic improvement in profitability and cashflow thanks to cutback on marketing expenses and headcount reduction.
  • Topline growth is recovering but still clouded by sluggish macro conditions. It is understandable that investors treat these China proxies – one way or another – with caution.
  • The sector’s valuation will remain pressured before the property market stabilizes and key macro indicators show concrete signs of improvement, in our view.

Symbio (SYM AU): Superloop’s Best and Final Offer

By Arun George

  • Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) disclosed a revised indicative “best and final” proposal from Superloop Ltd (SLC AU). The terms (A$1.425 cash and 2.14 SLC shares per SYM share) remain unchanged.
  • The two key changes are there is no due diligence condition and a mix-and-match option subject to scale back to achieve a maximum of 60% cash or 60% scrip.
  • The offer is conditional on entering a scheme implementation agreement by 29 September. The offer is palatable and the Board is likely to succumb and sign a binding agreement.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , SK Square , LG Corp, Softbank Group, F5 Networks Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Ansys Inc, Fleetcor Technologies, Lumen Technologies, Marizyme and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later
  • SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba
  • LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors
  • Softbank Group – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • F5 Networks Inc: The Future Of Networking & AI Integration! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Setting the Pace in AI with New Acquisitions? – Major Drivers
  • ANSYS Inc.: The Role of SMBs in Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Fleetcor Technologies Inc: Discover the 5 Key Moves Behind Their Success! – Major Drivers
  • Lumen Technologies Inc.: The NaaS Offering Might be the Future of Networking? – Major Drivers
  • Marizyme, Inc. – Powerful Technology Platform Driving Strong Growth Potential


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

By Brian Freitas

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
  • At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
  • Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
  • If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. 

LG Corp: Updated NAV Analysis & Outperformance Likely Driven by Value Investors

By Douglas Kim

  • Our NAV analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied market cap of 16.9 trillion won or 107,217 won per share which is 28.4% higher than current share price. 
  • We believe that LG Corp could announce another share buybacks representing 2-3% of outstanding shares in the next 6-12 months. 
  • Another reason that could result in LG Corp’s shares outperforming other major LG related shares is due to the value investors increasing capital allocation to higher dividend paying LG Corp.

Softbank Group – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view Softbank Group (SBG) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is mainly due to the group’s low reported leverage, as measured by LTV. SBG has demonstrated its ability to manage LTV, by periodically monetising large holdings of liquid assets (e.g. Alibaba Group Holding or T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom shares) via derivatives or non-recourse margin loans. Investors can derive comfort from SBG’s remaining holdings of those liquid assets on the balance sheet. Domestic telco Softbank Corp is the only significant cash generator consolidated into SBG. We see risks stemming from the group’s reliance on its Alibaba stake (which may be volatile), as well as the use of cash from the asset monetisation programme. We are also concerned about the large share repurchase programmes despite SBG’s weak results, as well as the company’s ability to invest.

Our Credit Bias is “Stable”. We believe the worst is over for SBG. The North American and Chinese tech sectors appear to be improving. SBG executed a major asset monetisation exercise in FY 2022-23 to shore up the balance sheet, raising it to a healthy level. LTV is very low, and liquidity is sound. We see little downside going forward, and more upside.

Controversies are “Immaterial”, but the ESG Impact on Credit is “Moderately Negative”. SBG has faced governance concerns, particularly over internal controls and the outsized influence of Chairman, CEO and founder Masayoshi Son. Such issues flare up on occasion, weighing on the credit. One concern is that the chairman could make imprudent investments, lowering the value of SBG’s holdings while driving leverage up.


F5 Networks Inc: The Future Of Networking & AI Integration! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • F5 Networks Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • F5 also continues to observe increased maintenance attach rates on older deployments due to customers worrying about their existing assets.
  • Their product revenue increased by 1%, their systems revenue increased by 5%, and their software revenue decreased by 3%.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Setting the Pace in AI with New Acquisitions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings, showcasing strategic execution and notable achievements.
  • Despite a year-over-year decline in revenue, the company reported steady performance compared to the previous quarter.
  • The data center segment experienced sequential growth, primarily attributed to cloud providers’ accelerated adoption of the fourth-gen EPYC CPUs.

ANSYS Inc.: The Role of SMBs in Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ANSYS Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, surpassing its financial guidance across all key metrics.
  • During Q2, the company reported reliable performance, beating its ACV, revenue, operating margin, and EPS guidance.
  • Total revenue for the quarter exceeded expectations, reflecting the positive impact of ACV outperformance and the mix of license types sold.

Fleetcor Technologies Inc: Discover the 5 Key Moves Behind Their Success! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fleetcor Technologies managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Both print revenue growth and organic revenue growth stood at 10% for the quarter.
  • While Q2 print revenue benefited from acquisition revenue, it was offset by lower fuel prices.

Lumen Technologies Inc.: The NaaS Offering Might be the Future of Networking? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies, Inc. delivered a mixed result in the quarter, with revenues below anticipations but surpassed the Wall Street consensus regarding earnings.
  • The total revenue was $3.661 billion, decreased 2.1% sequentially.
  • In the quarter, free cash flow was negative $896 million, including $938 million in taxes paid in connection with their two divestitures from the previous year.

Marizyme, Inc. – Powerful Technology Platform Driving Strong Growth Potential

By Water Tower Research

  • Marizyme, Inc. (MRZM) is a fast-growing biomedical company with a powerful multi-technology platform.

  • At the forefront is DuraGraft (DG), which has already demonstrated improved outcomes and lower costs for cardiac care through clinical trials and actual implementation in select overseas markets.

  • In addition to continued ‘OUS’ expansion, MRZM is readying for the implementation of DG in US markets, pending FDA approval.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Itochu Techno Solutions, Naspers, Softbank Group, SimCorp A/S, United Microelectron Sp Adr, ARM Holdings, 4Paradigm, Gene Solutions , StarHub Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows
  • Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes
  • Softbank (9984 JP): Arm IPO Done, the Hard Part Comes Next
  • Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.
  • Chip Designer Arm Committed to China, CEO Says
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Gene Solutions Raises $21m Series B, Targeting Regional Expansion
  • kopi-C with StarHub’s CEO: “There’s no other telco like ours”


Itochu TOB on Itochu Techno Solutions – The Index Selldown Schedule for $700mm+ of Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • In August, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) launched a Tender offer on Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) to buy out minorities. 
  • That tender offer ended last week, with Itochu and the acquirer vehicle owning 85+%. 
  • Interestingly, there are near-term flow events as a result. Worth watching.

Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX): Initial Market Reaction to Leadership Changes

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Early on Monday morning, Naspers and Prosus announced the immediate resignation of CEO Bob van Dijk. Management hosted an investor call shortly after. Key takeaways are included below.
  • Ervin Tu, Group Chief Investment Officer, will take over as Interim CEO. Tu is a strong candidate for the permanent position.
  • After an initial bounce at the open, both counters sold off, widening the discounts by more than 1 percentage point intra-day.

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm IPO Done, the Hard Part Comes Next

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank’s successful Arm Holdings IPO is a relief for Masa, with Arm valued at USD57bn and Arm shares trading above the issue price; this supports the SoftBank share price
  • Arm’s key challenge is delivering on the growth strategy to justify its super-premium valuation; Arm’s historic price to sales is at a big premium to its peer group, excluding Nvida
  • On current market values including Arm, Softbank shares trade at a 52% NAV discount; however, Arm’s current valuation seems unsustainable to us, threatening to erode the near term NAV lift

Deutsche Boerse Gets >90% of SimCorp

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR) offered a (full) price of DKK 735/share for SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) to grow in data & analytics. I recommend long. Acceptances total roughly 93.65% of share capital.
  • All conditions and approvals, including minimum acceptance of 50%+1 share have been fulfilled. Final results should be announced on 22 September and settlement should take place on 29 September.
  • Deutsche Börse will as soon as possible seek to initiate and complete a compulsory acquisition. After a recent dip, the shares trade again at the offer price.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8″ demand.
  • Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.
  • We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.

Chip Designer Arm Committed to China, CEO Says

By Caixin Global

  • British chip designer Arm Holdings Plc remains committed to China and to working closely with its mainland-based partner following its $4.87 billion IPO, according to chief executive Rene Haas.

  • The Softbank-backed firm floated in New York last week via the world’s largest public offering year-to-date. But that has not affected its strategy globally.

  • Shanghai-headquartered Arm Technology (China) Co. Ltd., also known as Arm China, operates independently and is the exclusive licensing platform of Arm’s global intellectual property in China

4Paradigm IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to raise gross proceeds of $131-144m through issuing 18.4m shares at an indicative price range of HK$55.6-61.16 per shares.
  • The company’s IPO is timed perfectly when AI adoption is expected to expand on a large scale with the popularity of ChatGPT and other AI applications.
  • Though we liked 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) for its improving financials and growth prospects, our analysis suggests that the IPO is expensive.

Gene Solutions Raises $21m Series B, Targeting Regional Expansion

By Tech in Asia

  • Gene Solutions, which bills itself as Vietnam’s largest genetic testing company, has raised US$21 million in a series B round.

  • This follows a US$15 million investment that the private equity investor made in the company in 2021.

  • Gene Solutions is one of Mekong Capital’s recent bets in biotech, a sector that has been arguably underserved by venture capital firms in Vietnam.


kopi-C with StarHub’s CEO: “There’s no other telco like ours”

By Geoff Howie

  • Kopi-C with StarHub’s CEO: “There’s no other telco like ours” StarHub’s CEO Nikhil Eapen shares how reinvention and diversification can help firms to retain and attract more customers for long-term growth After nearly a year at the helm, Eapen launched StarHub’s new DARE+ initiative in late 2021, a visionary plan to offer new products and services to connect customers’ digital lives.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Doosan Robotics, ASICLAND , Himax Technologies Inc Adr, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, 4Paradigm, Infineon Technologies , Amazon.com Inc, Cloudflare and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know
  • Trading Strategy of Doosan Robotics in the First Day of Trading Post Book Building Results
  • Asicland IPO Preview: The Only Value Chain Alliance (VCA) Company of TSMC in Korea
  • Himax Vs. Novatek Long/Short: Management Meeting; Himax Historically Cheap
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel ‘AI PC’ Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Infineon: The Potential Of Silicon Carbide
  • Amazon.com Inc.: How Is The Revenue Diversification Beyond AWS & E-Commerce Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Asicland IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Cloudflare Inc.: Beyond AI – Is Their Cloud Reigning Supreme? – Major Drivers


Korea NPS’s Funds Influx into Local Stock Market Starting Next Year: What to Know

By Sanghyun Park

  • The proposal to increase NPS’s annual target investment return rate by 1%p by 2028. A rough mathematical estimate suggests the necessity of an additional investment of nearly ₩60T until 2028.
  • It augments the overall investment volume in local stocks to ₩200T. This projection implies an annual net purchase of approximately ₩12T from the forthcoming year through 2028.
  • Consequently, this matter is currently among the most captivating topics in the Korean local market, and efforts are underway to identify the sectors and stocks that stand to benefit.

Trading Strategy of Doosan Robotics in the First Day of Trading Post Book Building Results

By Douglas Kim

  • Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 26,000 won (upper end of the IPO price range). 
  • A total of 1,920 institutional investors participated in the IPO demand forecast survey and the demand ratio was 272 to 1. 
  • The trading strategy on the first day of IPO is to take some profits (25%-50% of total) if the share price shoots much higher than the IPO price by 70-100%+.

Asicland IPO Preview: The Only Value Chain Alliance (VCA) Company of TSMC in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Asicland is one of eight companies in the world and the only TSMC VCA (Value Chain Alliance) company in Korea.
  • The IPO price range is from 19,100 won to 21,400 won. The IPO offering amount is from 50.4 billion won to 56.4 billion won. 
  • Asicland’s sales and operating profit increased at a CAGR of 71.8% and 220%, respectively from 2020 to 2022. Operating margin improved from 4.7% in 2020 to 16.5% in 2022.

Himax Vs. Novatek Long/Short: Management Meeting; Himax Historically Cheap

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Himax shares have been in downtrend recently, falling 20% since the end of June vs. Novatek up 12%. We met with the Himax for an update.
  • Himax at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, both are exposed to similar display end-markets. Himax trades at just 1x sales on an absolute basis.
  • We have a Structural Long view for both stocks, however from an arb perspective see a Long Himax vs. Short Novatek trade opportunity given the large share price divergence.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel ‘AI PC’ Chips On Track to Drive 2024E PC Supply Chain

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel kicked off its Innovation conference and announced that its new PC processors with built-in AI coprocessors would launch December 14th. This is positive for the PC supply chain.
  • Many types of existing software that used to require expert users can become more valuable with AI capabilities; we believe tomorrow’s AI PC killer apps could be in plain sight.
  • Himax Long vs. Novatek Short. Himax is at historically very cheap level relative to Novatek, yet both are exposed to similar display end-markets.

4Paradigm IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$144 million.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case and 4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case
  • In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of HK$55.60-61.16 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.

Infineon: The Potential Of Silicon Carbide

By Alexis Dwek

  • We reiterate our buy case on Infineon.  The investment case just gets more exiting at these levels
  • Infineon is in an excellent position to capture growth in silicon carbide, now expanding in Kulin with Phase II. 
  • The Company could generated €7bn in revenues by the end of the decade (up from €3bn) from Silicon Carbide.

Amazon.com Inc.: How Is The Revenue Diversification Beyond AWS & E-Commerce Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon.com, Inc. delivered positive results and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • The company has reported revenue of $134.4 billion and operating income of $7.7 billion.
  • These are significant contributing causes to AWS’s recent growth and the over twofold increase in revenue over other service providers.

Asicland IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Asicland is target price of 40,571 won per share, which is 90% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (21,400 won). 
  • Our target price of 40,571 won is based on 43x P/E using our estimated net profit of 10.1 billion won in 2024. 
  • Asicland is one of eight companies in the world and the only TSMC VCA (Value Chain Alliance) company in Korea.

Cloudflare Inc.: Beyond AI – Is Their Cloud Reigning Supreme? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cloudflare, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • The second quarter’s total revenue reached 32% year over year to $308.5 million.
  • In the quarter, Cloudflare received 10 million active worker applications, a 250% increase since December and a 490% increase year over year.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Telecom, Keep Inc, 4Paradigm, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Dropbox Inc, Esker SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom’s Passive Movements
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December
  • 4Paradigm IPO – PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support
  • Dropbox Inc.: The Skyrocketing Potential of AI and New High-Value Products! – Major Drivers
  • Esker – Working to balance investment and profitability


Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom’s Passive Movements

By Sanghyun Park

  • As of last Friday, SKT has utilized 86.2 billion won out of the allotted 300 billion won for share buybacks, resulting in the acquisition of 1,810,242 shares.
  • If there are indications of the foreign room potentially falling to a risky level, SKT will likely proceed with an aggressive buyback, targeting 20-30% of the daily trading volume.
  • Another particularly intriguing observation is the absence of local retail flow directed towards SKT. This indicates there is still potential momentum for an upward price movement at this juncture.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Low Probability Add in December

By Brian Freitas

  • There have only been 7 new listings on the HKEX (388 HK) in the third quarter of the year so far.
  • Of those stocks, only Keep Inc (3650 HK) has a chance of being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index in December and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Keep Inc (3650 HK) is the largest online fitness platform in China and the name recognition could bring in substantial flows via Southbound Stock Connect.

4Paradigm IPO – PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.
  • 4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.
  • In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread In Clear Downtrend; UMC & ASE Corporate Days Could Support

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s ADR premium/discount appears to have shown a clear decline in trading range recently, down from the 10% level.
  • UMC & ASE joined corporate days today in Taipei, which could be supportive of their premiums in the near-term.
  • We provide spread levels we view as compelling from a risk/reward perspective.

Dropbox Inc.: The Skyrocketing Potential of AI and New High-Value Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dropbox, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, driven by FormSwift’s revenue growth and some improvement in the company’s SKUs, as the development it observed in late Q1 carried over into Q2.
  • In the quarter, the company launched Dropbox AI.
  • Furthermore, Dropbox introduced a new activation homepage to simplify admins setting up their teams and becoming familiar with the product.

Esker – Working to balance investment and profitability

By Edison Investment Research

In H123 Esker reported strong growth in revenue (+16% y-o-y in constant currency (cc)) and bookings (+18% y-o-y cc) but this was outweighed by increases in costs, resulting in an operating margin decline. The company is taking measures to counter this, both in its contract pricing and by slowing the pace of hiring. While FY23 revenue outlook is unchanged, management reduced the mid-point of operating margin guidance by 1% to 12%. We have conservatively reduced our operating profit forecasts, which for FY23 were at the upper end of the new guidance range.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Mobile, SK Telecom, Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD
  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows
  • Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (15-Sep):  Utilities, Insurance, China Mobile, BYD

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (6 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it and decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 41 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last five weeks (since the instantiation of the new Monitor and Portfolio 6 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%.

SK Telecom (017670 KS): Foreign Room & Passive Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) increased above 15% in July and is currently just above 16%. Foreign investors have resumed buying again and foreign room is moving lower.
  • Foreign room staying above 15% for another month could result in passive buying at the end of November. SK Telecom (017670 KS) has outperformed peers over the last few weeks.
  • Foreign buying over the next month could lead to foreign room dropping below 15% in which case there will be no passive inflows. But the stock could be higher.

Intel’s Data Centre Meltdown

By William Keating

  • Year to date, Intel’s data center revenues are down 28% YoY. 
  • By comparison, AMD’s year-to-date revenues are down just 6% YoY
  • Why is AMD performing so much better than Intel in the data center and will their market share growth continue?

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Softbank Group, Eoptolink Technology , Foxconn Industrial Internet, Klaviyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F
  • ECM Weekly (17th Sep 2023) – ARM, VNG, Doosan, Tuhu, IMotion, Seibu Giken, RR Kabel, Viva, Innovent
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations
  • Klaviyo IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: A Fast-Growing Marketing Automation Unicorn


TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

By Patrick Liao

  • We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.
  • Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. 
  • The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.

ECM Weekly (17th Sep 2023) – ARM, VNG, Doosan, Tuhu, IMotion, Seibu Giken, RR Kabel, Viva, Innovent

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • In the IPO space, ARM’s IPO seems to have set the ball rolling for the traditionally busy year end across the region.
  • In the placement space, finally a Hong Kong placement mangaed to hold up, even as a large Aussie one gave way.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50: A Potential Basket Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELETEs in the December 2023 Rebalance.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: US$937mn One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
  • I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.

Klaviyo IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: A Fast-Growing Marketing Automation Unicorn

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Klaviyo, a Shopify-powered marketing automation platform provider for SMBs, mid-market, and B2B companies, filed to go public and plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • The fast-growing company was backed by Summit Partners, Shopify, and top-tier VC firms, including Accomplice, Accel, Sands Capital Ventures, Astral Capital, Cross Creek, and W Ventures.
  • Klaviyo is expected to IPO next week. S-1/A put the price range at $25-$27, implying a market cap of $6.5B at the midpoint, or $8.4B on a fully diluted basis. 

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