Equity Capital Markets

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…

After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while.
But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

2. Sony To Sell Down SRE Holdings (2980 JP) Block – AI-Related Growth Stock Should See Support

SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position.
The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

3. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Positives – Transforming

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

4. Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

5. JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Isn’t There Yet

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

6. JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.
The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage.

7. MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group (MIX HK) has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.
With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities’ potential and the franchise model drives expansion.
It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.

8. Sotetsu Holdings (9003) – Crossholders Sell Down – Big ADV Multiple, Low Earnings Multiple, Boring

Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP) today announced a large-ish secondary equity offering – 10% of shares out and 20% of Max Real World Float.
This is crossholders selling down roughly 30% of what they own. Sotetsu announced a buyback for a quarter of the offering over the next six months.
The shareholder structure and distribution within Max Real World Float tells you all you need to know.

9. Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering – Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP) shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.
It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It’s still <10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.
It’s 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.

10. Hexaware Technologies IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor, Very Poor Overall

Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Feb 16

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 16, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Japan Eyewear (5889) – “Second IPO” Equity Offering Creates TOPIX Inclusion

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA has had Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) on his watchlist. He wrote on 6 Feb 2025 in his TOPIX Who Is Ready piece he expected Q1 inclusion.
He also noted that an equity offering might be required. Monday, we got a forecast revision (upward) for the year ended 31 January, an equity offering, and TOPIX inclusion.
The equity offering proposed is large enough one could consider it a “Second IPO”. This matters in terms of absorption and in thinking about the TOPIX Inclusion event.

2. CATL IPO Listing in Hong Kong Preview

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong exchange. CATL is expected to raise at least US$5 billion.
CATL maintained its 36.8% share in the global EV battery market in 2023 and January to November 2024. CATL has excellent fundamentals and improving profit margins.
Major risk factors include additional tariffs by the US, recent addition to Pentagon’s blacklist, declining sales in 2024, and lower government subsidies for EVs globally.

3. CATL A/H Listing – IPO Filing Updates

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about updates from its most recent filings.

4. Takasago Thermal Engineering Offering (1969) – Small Start to Larger Unwind

By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

Takasago Thermal Engineering (1969 JP) reported Q3 earnings today. Revs up tiny yoy over 9m. OP +13%, Net +18.2%. Progression a bit behind guidance for full-year (but guidance unchanged)
Orders received and carried forward a record high. Margins up. DX/etc investments up. Crossholdings down but still HUGE outbound/in-bound. Goal is to shrink from 20% of net assets to 15%.
Today the company announced some crossholders would sell ~5% of shares out, and the company would launch a buyback for half that. Meh…

5. Daiichi Sankyo Placement – Momentum Is Weak but the Deal Is Small

Mizuho Bank is looking to raise US$151m from selling some of its stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP).
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

6. MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

7. Hexaware Technologies IPO – Not Cheap on Its Own, but Peers Are Trading a Lot Higher

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) is looking to raise US$1bn from its India IPO.
Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
In this note, we discuss its RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.

8. Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

9. Guming Holdings IPO Trading – Strong Retail Demand, with Decent Coverage on the Insti Tranche

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

10. ECM Weekly (10th Feb 2025) – Haitian, Guming, LG CNS, Dr Agarwal, Ola, Brainbees, Kaynes, Whirlpool

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, neither of the two listings performed last week, while more are lining up to list across the region.
On the placements front, given the ongoing earnings season there weren’t any deals. We did look at lockups and other possible upcoming deals.

Feb 09

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 9, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

2. LG CNS IPO: Trading Debut

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) priced its IPO at KRW61,900 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$820 million. The shares will start trading on 5 February.
We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case and LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights.
Since the prospectus’s release, the peers have marginally re-rated. The valuation remains undemanding at the IPO price, and bullish grey market prices suggest a strong debut.

3. Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

4. LG CNS IPO Trading – Demand Aided by Domestics, Limited Lockup Undertaking

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

5. LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO

In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.

6. Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?

7. ECM Weekly (3rd Feb 2025) – Seoul Guarantee, Dr Agarwal’s, Ather Energy, Hexaware, Visen Pharma

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at the valuations for Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital and Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS).
On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week, there were no placements this week.

8. Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu

By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu

9. Whirlpool of India OFS Early Look – Another Large Selldown by Parent

Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) is looking to raise about INR 46bn (US$530m) from selling a stake of about 31% in Whirlpool of India Limited (WHIRL).
In an announcement released on Jan 30, 2025, the firm mentioned its ultimate parent’s intention to sell down its interest in WHIRL from 51% to 20% by mid-to-late 2025.
In this note, we talk about the past deal performance and other deal dynamics.

10. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO Preview

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) (Good Me) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong Exchange in February.
At the high end of the IPO price range, the listing will raise about HK$1.58 billion (US$220 million).
Guming is a ready-to-drink beverage company specializing in freshly made tea beverages.

Feb 02

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Feb 2, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

1. Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

2. Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.

3. SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

4. Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors

The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

5. SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.

6. ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), along with a few large IPOs in India .
On the placements front, while there weren’t any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for Timee Inc (215A JP) and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).

7. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO

Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price.
Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

8. Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power

Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million.
Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x.

9. Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue

The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.

10. Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut

The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

Jan 26

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 26, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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By Sanghyun Park, Clepsydra Capital

1. Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect

We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.

2. HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.

3. Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group’s Spin-Off

Spin-Off of WH Group’s could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range
The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut
Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)

4. Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea

The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.
New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date.
Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs.

5. Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal

The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.

6. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet.

7. Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far

Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million.
In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing.

8. Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.

9. HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

10. Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance

By Devi Subhakesan, Investory

Guming Holdings (GUM HK), a leading player in China’s freshly-made branded beverage sector, is widely expected to launch its IPO soon.
Guming’s Good Me brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of store count as well as GMV.
Guming reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings, although same-store sales declined due to rising competition and weak consumer spending.

Jan 19

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 19, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

2. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at Japan & Korea after having looked at HK & India.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

3. Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

4. ECM Weekly (13th Jan 2025) – LG CNS, Bloks, Guming, Crizac, Shift Up, Adani, Wuxi

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Bloks Group picked up where Mao Geping Cosmetics had left off.
On the placements front, there were selldowns in Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) and WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK). We also looked at Shift Up (462870 KS) lockup release.

5. Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN’s Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO

SHEIN’s general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
It’s the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain & new threat from Amazon to existing risks

6. LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis

LG CNS reported a successful IPO book building results analysis. The IPO price has been finalized at 61,900 won per share (high end of the IPO price range).
The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 114 to 1. At the IPO price of 61,900 won, the expected market cap will be 6 trillion won.
According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case target price of 76,383 won per share, which represents a 23% upside from the IPO price of 61,900 won.

7. LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved

LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO.
LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

8. Dongbang Medical IPO Preview

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

Dongbang Medical is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in February 2025. The IPO price range is from 9,000 won to 10,500 won.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the comps ranges from 191 billion won to 223 billion won.
Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

9. Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share

Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

10. Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified

Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn’t yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.

Jan 12

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 12, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case.
We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.

2. Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.

3. Bloks Group IPO – Outgrowing Its Peers, Decent Valuation

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

4. Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life

2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.

5. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

6. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

7. CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

8. Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well

By Rosita Fernandes, Aequitas Research

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

9. Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.

10. Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss its refiling updates.

Jan 05

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jan 5, 2025

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1. Bloks Group IPO (0325.HK): Global Offering, The Initial Price Range Is Seen As Attractively Valued

Shanghai-Based Bloks Group, a leader of assembly character toys in China, has announced the initial price range for its IPO in Hong Kong.
The offering is expected to be between HK$55.65 and HK$60.35, implying a market cap of ~HK$14B or ~$1.8B at the midpoint of the price range.
Assuming IPO offer price of HK$58.00, UBS AM Singapore, Greenwoods AM and Fullgoal Investors have agreed to invest ~HK$388M or ~$50M in the offering.

2. Pre-IPO Bloks Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

The assembly character toy segment market size is not big and Bloks is already China’s largest player. So, there will be a day when the growth ceiling is reached.
Bloks’ business model is more similar to Pop Mart, rather than LEGO, but Bloks’ profitability is lagging behind both of them. The current high revenue growth may not be sustainable.
Pre-IPO valuation of Bloks reached RMB7.2 billion. Valuation of Bloks should be lower than Pop Mart. If Bloks’ valuation could reach the industry average after IPO, it is already good.

3. Bloks Group IPO – PHIP Updates – Momentum Remains Strong, Although Some Lingering Doubts Persist

Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$188m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
In our previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss the latest PHIP updates.

4. Didi Global Q324 Results & Two Key Reasons Company May Consider A New Listing in 2025

In Q324, Didi grew slowly, but core margin improved significantly on higher “take rate”
Q324 liquidity position sound, but pace of 2024 investment difficult to sustain
Two important reasons Didi could list shares in ’25, even if cash needs aren’t urgent

5. S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Here’s Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So “Boring”

The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company’s market share and growth ceiling in China.
The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.
S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.’s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.

6. LG CNS: Updated IPO Valuation Analysis

According to our updated valuation analysis of LG CNS, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.4 trillion won, representing target price of 76,383 won per share.
Our base case valuation target price of 76,383 won is 23% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We lowered our target price by 6%, mainly due to greater political risks arising from the recent cancelled martial law and ongoing impeachment of President Yoon.

7. LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on fading growth momentum, mid-tier revenue growth, weak non-AI growth, high contract assets, bottom-tier FCF margin and large share overhang.

8. Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma – The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion.
Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets.

9. Orum Therapeutics Lowers IPO Price Range

Orum Therapeutics (475830 KS) has lowered its IPO price range to 24,000 won to 30,000 won.
The IPO offering amount will be between 60 billion won to 75 billion won. The expected market cap of the IPO is between 531 billion won to 664 billion won.
Our updated valuation of Orum Therapeutics suggests implied target price of 24,939 won per share, which is 8% lower than the mid-point of the revised down IPO price range.

10. Initial Thoughts on the DN Solutions IPO

DN Solutions is planning to complete its IPO in Korea in 2025. The expected value of DN Solutions is estimated to be about 5 trillion won to 6 trillion won.
DN Solutions’ revenue and operating profit increased at CAGR of 19.9% and 62.2%, respectively from 2020 to 2023.
Currently, the largest shareholder of DN Solutions is GMT Holdings which has a 90.32% stake. DN Automotive (007340 KS) owns a 100% stake in GMT Holdings.

Dec 29

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 29, 2024

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1. Minieye Technology IPO: Valuation Multiples Appear Justified Given Top-Line Growth of 30%+

Minieye Technology, a fast-growing provider of intelligent driving and cabin solutions in China, will price its IPO this week.
The company was backed by CICC Capital, Beijing Siwei, Shenzhen Zeyi, and Mr. Wu Yongming, the current CEO of Alibaba, among others.
IPO valuation multiples appear justified given the company’s top-line growth of 30%+ and full-stack in-house R&D capabilities.

2. 2024 Greater China Logistics & Transport ECM Review & A Look at Potential 2025 Deals

2024 ECM offerings in the Greater China logistics & transport segment included TS Lines (in Hong Kong), SF Holding(Hong Kong), and BingEx (US)
Generally, recent share offerings in the segment have not performed well at all
Looking to 2025, we see several deals, including SHEIN and a possible Didi return

3. Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

By William Mann, HarmoniQ Insights

Founder Zhu Zhongyuan is a key figure in biotech landscape.So, when Duality first started its entrepreneurial financing, the process was smooth and the starting point of Duality was not low.
The R&D progress of Duality’s pipelines is slower than competing candidates, so they would be in a passive position after market launch. So, Duality’s valuation would be lower than Kelun Bio.
Duality’s pipeline still has “good stories” to tell. There’s a chance its valuation could be higher than RemeGen, whose business model/investment logic have been falsified due to weak sales data.

4. Calendar Effects Trading Strategy: Combining TOY and Santa Rally Effects for Enhanced Returns

Calendar effects in equity markets have persisted despite widespread knowledge of their existence.
Combine the Turn-of-Year (TOY) effect with the Santa Rally phenomenon systematically
The trading approach historically generates 1.4-2.0% returns over a 7-day period, with a win rate of 75% since 2000.

5. China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.29) – Haier Biomedical Plans to Merge with and Absorb Shanghai RAAS

Haier Biomedical plans to merge with and absorb Shanghai RAAS through the issuance of shares, and both parties have signed a letter of intent for the potential merger.
Haier’s acquisition of RAAS helps connect the software and hardware of the blood industry and strengthen the company’s dominant position in the entire industry chain in the blood products industry.
The market value/financial performance of these two are far apart. If the acquisition is completed, it will help Haier improve financial performance, which is obviously more beneficial for Haier.

Dec 22

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Dec 22, 2024

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Kioxia IPO Trading – Decent Demand for Decent Upside

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) raised around US$800m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO, after pricing its IPO in the middle of its range.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

2. 2025 (“Year of the Snake”) IPOs Pipeline in Asia

In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in Asia that could complete their IPOs in Asia next year.
This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in Asia in 2025.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in Asia next year include Reliance Jio, LG Electronics India, Shein, Sony Financial Group, Didi Global, and Okada Manila.

3. 2025 IPOs Pipeline (USA, Europe, and the Middle East)

In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in the USA, Europe, and the Middle East that could complete their IPOs in 2025.
This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in these regions in 2025.
Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in these regions next year include Starlink, SpaceX, Stripe, Open AI, Klarna, Five Holdings, Monzo, and Ethiad Airways.

4. Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics

Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.
Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.

5. ECM Weekly (16th Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Mao Geping, Digico, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Quantum

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of offerings were live in India, in a bid to beat the year-end lull.
On the placements front, there was a large placement for SenseTime Group (20 HK) and a number of smaller deals in India.

6. LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case

LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability.

7. Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology (PHIP Updates) – Profitability Are Always the Pain Points

Medical industry characteristics are the seriousness of diagnosis/treatment and the irreversibility of the process, which are the difficulties in implementing technology. The value that AI can provide is limited.
Xunfei’s business model is not To C, but To G (government) model. It’s not possible for SOE customers to pay high price for Xunfei’s AI model/products, leading to questionable profitability.
Pre-IPO valuation has reached RMB8.4 billion. Without sustainable growth and stable profitability, valuation/liquidity of Xunfei after listing wouldn’t be good. We think Xunfei’s valuation could be similar to Yidu Tech.

8. Vishal Mega Mart IPO Trading – Strong Demand Despite Not so Strong Anchor

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM) raised around US$950m in its India IPO.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

9. Inventurus Knowledge Solutions IPO Trading: Decent Anchor Quality and Strong Subscription Results

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO.
IKS is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

10. IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand