In today’s briefing:
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
- Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%
- ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile
- Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
- HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
- Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed
- Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety
- Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading.
- SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
- Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK).
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%
- Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV.
- Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground.
- The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV.
ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
- On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile
- “Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
- Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
- The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
- In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
- In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.
HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
- Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
- Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
- Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.
Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed
- Strong industry sales of wheel loaders (+10.4% YoY) and excavators (+18.8%) in Jul-Aug suggested that the current consensus earnings forecasts are too conservative.
- Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) will also benefit from the strength of the equities market, given it has an investment portfolio of Rmb2.4bn, or 18.6% of its market capitalisation.
- Given net cash equalling HK$2.02/share, or 66.1% of its share price, its 10.3x PER and 4.5% dividend yield for FY25F still appear undemanding.
Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety
- Genfleet, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 204 million via a Hong Kong listing.
- In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product and key product and our thoughts on valuation.
- In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation provides margin of safety while sentiment is positive.
Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins
- HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
- H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
- SF Intra’s structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense
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