In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
- Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
- HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
- Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
- Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
- Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach
- FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
- HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
- Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update
A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 June 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys, AH Premia Fall Back
- AH premia gives back previous week gains but the “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
- It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Pricing and Post-IPO Performance, Wild Price Swings Could Be Short-Lived
- Saint Bella, a leading postpartum care and recovery group in China, priced its upsized IPO at fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share.
- The offer size adjustment option has been fully exercised. The company issued and allotted 14,313,000 additional offer shares.
- Saint Bella sold 109,733,000 shares and raised net proceeds of ~HK$630M or ~$80M. The stock jumped ~49% on first day as a public company and peaked at HK$11.00 per share.
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Inches Closer Toward Precondition Satisfaction
- China Mobile (941 HK) has secured all PRC regulatory approvals for its HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) offer. The remaining precondition is approval from the HK Communications Authority.
- I Squared, while technically still in the race, is rapidly running out of time. It needs to announce an offer before China Mobile opens its offer for acceptance.
- Despite the HKBN CEO’s comments that the China Mobile offer is not good enough, China Mobile has no pressing need to bump if a competing offer fails to materialise.
Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4.
- US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.
- Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought. 10-year US Treasuries Futures are also overbought. Commodities like Gold and Crude Oil are down.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 June 2025); Volumes Up, Net Buying Up, Banks Bought, SOEs Sold
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes up to US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$700mm a day.
- Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. Neither INFO TECH nor Tencent were the big sells this week.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.
Anjoy Foods Group HK Offer: Value Stock or Value Trap? Key Facts, Financials and Valuation
- Anjoy Foods Group (2648 HK), already listed in Shanghai, is offering 40 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD2.6 billion (USD335 million); Offer closes today, June 30th.
- HK offer is priced at a decent discount to A share price and at valuation multiples that are aligned with its peer group and business fundamentals.
- With limited organic growth and little evidence of a strategic pivot to higher-value offerings, Anjoy Foods lacks a compelling long term investment case.
Xiaomi: Sentiment Surges, Option Market Signals Overreach
- Xiaomi surged to new all-time highs following its ecosystem launch and strong YU7 pre-order momentum.
- We examine option market activity to assess what’s being priced and whether sentiment is getting ahead of itself.
- Two option trade structures are outlined to reflect our findings.
FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK): Low Free Float Delays and Limits Global Index Inclusion
- FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK) fails to meet the minimum free float thresholds of both Global indices prior to the IPO lock-up expiry.
- The security is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2026 review following the 6-month lock-up expiry.
- The security is likely to remain excluded from Global Standard even after the lock-up expiry due to insufficient float cap.
HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty
- The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma’s privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
- The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
- The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.
Medtide (泰德医药) IPO Trading Update
- Medtide raised HKD 514m (USD 65.5m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, June 30th.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
- In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.
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