In today’s briefing:
- Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Set to Open
- Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
- China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind “Crazy” TransThera
- Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Multiple Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher
Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Set to Open
- On 19 September, Boyu completed the auction share transfer to take its Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) shareholding to 55.91% of outstanding shares.
- Pursuant to Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, Boyu is required to make a mandatory unconditional general offer at HK$6.67. The offer should open by 26 September.
- The offer price is unattractive, suggesting a low chance of breaching the public float requirements (23.4% of outstanding shares). At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.9%/10.0%.
Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
- I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
- In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.
China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind “Crazy” TransThera
- At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.
- TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.
- The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.
Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
- KKR’s lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It’s not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
- Abu Dhabis’ ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Multiple Changes to Expectations; New Ideas
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- We see 7 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sept 15 – 19): Caution Signs Emerge as HSI Stretches Higher
- HSI tested new highs before fading, as weak breadth and strong option volumes highlighted diverging signals in Hong Kong equities.
- Technically, HSI may have reached a level from which minor corrections have started.
- Option trading activity surged, reaching its busiest day since November, even as overall market momentum faltered.
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