In today’s briefing:
- MINIMAX-W: Second Lock-Up Expiry and Convertible Bond Conversion Analysis
- MiniMax (100 HK): US$1.7bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Flows
- StubWorld: Swire Accelerates Cathay Exchange. “As” At Multi-Decade Premium To “Bs”
- SHEIN (625 HK): Round-Trip to Flat on IPO Debut; 95% Locked Up; Accumulate at HK$43–49, FV HK$70
- MiniMax (100 HK): The Unlock Is Today. Take Profit Now, Reload Ahead of November’s Passive Bid
- Montage (6809 HK): 2Q26, Financials Up with Capacities, No Concern About Korea Probe
- Water Oasis: Six Years Later, the Value Trap Never Arrived
- Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): No Fireworks for Now; Searching for Growth Everywhere
- Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology – About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation
- Dream International (1126 HK) H1FY26 Concall Gleanings: Cost Shock Masks A Record Top Line
MINIMAX-W: Second Lock-Up Expiry and Convertible Bond Conversion Analysis
- We lay out MiniMax’s September liquidity events, from today’s Undertaking (b) unlock through the 21 Sep bond conversion window.
- We review the stock’s post-Connect inclusion trading, including southbound buying, short interest, consensus revisions.
- We assess the overhang associated with the lock up events.
MiniMax (100 HK): US$1.7bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Flows
- We see 39m shares (HK$13.4bn; US$1.7bn; 2.8x ADV) of MiniMax (100 HK) unlocking from the start of trading on 3 September.
- Mainland China investors started buying MiniMax (100 HK) from the inclusion of the stock in the Southbound program and hold 32.8m shares (9.38% of shares out).
- MiniMax (100 HK) could be added to a global index in November and to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December.
StubWorld: Swire Accelerates Cathay Exchange. “As” At Multi-Decade Premium To “Bs”
- Via an accelerated exchange, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is soliciting tenders from its 2027 exchangeable bond holders and, in parallel, placing Cathay (293 HK) shares to fund the bond repurchase.
- Preceding my comments on Swire, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
SHEIN (625 HK): Round-Trip to Flat on IPO Debut; 95% Locked Up; Accumulate at HK$43–49, FV HK$70
- SHEIN’s round-trip debut to flat is a float signal, not a price signal. With 95% of shares locked up, near-term price action reflects flow, not fundamentals.
- Three post-listing developments reset the risk picture: a US$494m earnings reversal, France’s live garment levy, and a US$3.5bn recapitalisation outflow.
- ACCUMULATE, FV HK$70 (US$38bn) on ~0.9× LTM EV/Sales — a H&M-level discount reflecting tariff drag, governance concentration, and a 5% free float.
MiniMax (100 HK): The Unlock Is Today. Take Profit Now, Reload Ahead of November’s Passive Bid
- Southbound investors accumulated 32.8m shares — 9.4% of the company — in four weeks following Stock Connect inclusion, validating our demand thesis and absorbing the July placing overhang entirely.
- The 1H26 interim result delivered revenue up 3.8 times year on year, with the half-year alone exceeding FY2025 full-year revenue; gross margin cleared our 29.7% pre-committed discipline line.
- We maintain BULLISH with FV HK$340 — 18x FY2028E EV/sales of US$700m plus net cash — trim at spot, reload below HK$300, position ahead of the November global index add.
Montage (6809 HK): 2Q26, Financials Up with Capacities, No Concern About Korea Probe
- In 2Q26, Revenue growth accelerated due to the start of Shanghai testing center and TSMC contract.
- We believe the packaging and testing in Singapore will raise revenue in 2027.
- However, we consider the gross margins in the first two quarters to be unrepresentative.
Water Oasis: Six Years Later, the Value Trap Never Arrived
- Beauty services now exceed 90% of revenue, validating the service-led thesis while recent growth suggests the model is still economically relevant.
- Our concerns around moat, disclosure and management remain partly valid, but the accounting deterioration and value-trap outcomes we feared never materialized.
- The biggest lesson is valuation: Water Oasis did not need to become exceptional; it only needed to remain durable enough at a deeply discounted price.
Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): No Fireworks for Now; Searching for Growth Everywhere
- No Fireworks: In this insight we discuss about Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) ‘s H1 FY2026 financial performance and why there were no fireworks.
- Searching for Growth Everywhere : Given the weak demand in its domestic market, the company is searching for growth in every geography globally.
- Finally, we discuss and conclude our view on H2FY2026 performance of the company.
Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology – About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation
- Based on the 20-year manufacturing supply chain management experience of Midea, Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing such as production rhythm, inventory management, and channel distribution.
- A slight decrease in revenue or a slight increase in costs that cannot be passed on could have disproportionately negative impact on Annto’s profitability and could lead to net loss.
- Profit margin of JD Logistics is higher than Annto. The scale of JD Logistics is approximately 10 times of Annto. So, we think Annto’s valuation would be lower than JD Logistics.
Dream International (1126 HK) H1FY26 Concall Gleanings: Cost Shock Masks A Record Top Line
- Revenue rose 12.3% to HK$2,896.5m on record plush volumes, but material and Vietnamese labor cost inflation cut gross margin 470bp to 15.4%.
- Net cash of HK$1,406m, 30% of market capitalization, and a flat HK$0.25 interim dividend underpin the payout, while margin repair remains unproven.
- Valuation is appealing at 6.9x P/E, 3.2x EV/EBITDA, 1.0x P/B, 9.0% yield, 15.2% ROE.
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