In today’s briefing:
- CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
- Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
- Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement
- China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
- There could be one change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index with Nexchip Semiconductor (688249 CH) replacing Amlogic Shanghai (688099 CH) in June.
- Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.4x ADV in Nexchip Semiconductor and sell 0.8x ADV in Amlogic Shanghai. There will be buying in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) due to capping.
- The forecast add and delete have performed in line since the start of the year but there has been a move higher in the last few weeks.
Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
- US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
- Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.
Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
China Pair Trade: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)
- A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade.
- OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
- While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Apr-2025): HK Admiralty office floor sells at 17-year low.
- Hong Kong office floor in Admiralty sells at a 17-year low, reflecting challenging market conditions in the region.
- Brookfield strengthens APAC logistics presence with $588M NZ joint venture, highlighting growth opportunities in the sector.
- Manulife IM acquires Sydney Logistics Park from KKR and Centennial for $35M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Country Garden
- In the US, the 1-year New York Fed inflation expectations edged up to 3.58% (3.26% e / 3.13% p).
- Treasuries rallied yesterday, unwinding part of last week’s decline, after the Trump administration granted a temporary tariff reprieve on smartphones and consumer electronics.
Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The expansion space of BenQ is severely limited as the market has been saturated in Jiangsu Province. Due to DRG, future revenue/net profit growth would continue to be under pressure.
- Low profit margin of general hospitals is a common problem in this industry due to pain points of business model.It’s difficult to achieve improvement.Investors need to be aware of this.
- BenQ’s valuation should be lower than Hygeia due to weaker profitability, smaller revenue scale, lower growth outlook.Post-money valuation before IPO of US$375 million (or about RMB2.7 billion) is already expensive
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