In today’s briefing:
- Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
- [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years
- Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic
Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
- This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
- We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
- Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy
- A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
- Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
- The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
- Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
- Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
- Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.
[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years
- Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
- C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
- We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic
- The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
- Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.4bn of A-shares on decent volume after buying RMB 25bn net the two weeks before.
- The volume is still chasing momentum, and dip buying on the buys. Selling dips on losers. CATL the big buy, and less passive-feeling than last week.
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