In today’s briefing:
- Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
- Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
- Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
- Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal
- [Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic
Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
- You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
- Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
- IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
- Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
- Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
- The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final.
- The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
- Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final.
- The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced.
- The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms.
Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
- Legend Biotech has been making headlines with its breakthrough CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, which has revolutionized the treatment of multiple myeloma.
- This pioneering therapy, co commercialized with Johnson & Johnson, has achieved record-setting launches and boasts a significant survival benefit over standard treatments.
- The company’s robust clinical pipeline, recent partnerships, and aggressive manufacturing expansions signal strong growth potential.
Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
- Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
- Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
- Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
- Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.
Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Another Special Dividend Proposal
- Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment.
- Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.
- Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.
[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Preview]: C4Q24: Thailand Kidnapping Strengthens Domestic
- We expect TCOM to report C4Q24 revenue 1.8% lower than consensus, mainly due to lukewarm outbound travel. But we see domestic and inbound remained robust heading into CNY.
- Given strong data flow heading into CNY, we continue to be positive on domestic travel while outbound suffering a further setback…
- We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.
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