Daily Brief Consumer: Campina Ice Cream Industry, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. and more

• Stagnant Revenue and Severe Margin Compression: PT Campina Ice Cream Industry Tbk (CAMP IJ) has seen top-line growth slow to a 3-year CAGR of 1.30% (reaching IDR 1.17T in FY2025), while net profit declined at a -14.89% CAGR to IDR 74.77B. Gross margins compressed from 53.05% in FY2023 to 48.52% in FY2025 due to elevated dairy/sugar raw material costs and heightened discounting across retail channels.
• Unleveraged Balance Sheet Provides Defensive Anchor: Despite operating headwinds, CAMP maintains an unleveraged balance sheet with solid net cash backing, supporting a Smartkarma Resilience score of 4/5. This robust liquidity profile insulates the firm against debt distress and funds ongoing point-of-sale freezer replacements without solvency risk.
• Competitive Squeeze and Free Cash Flow Contraction: Intense category rivalry from low-cost entrants (notably Aice and Joyday) and incumbent Unilever continues to limit Campina’s pricing power. Free cash flow contracted sharply from IDR 47.27B in FY2023 to IDR 2.30B in FY2025 (-71.71% 3-year CAGR), warranting a Neutral institutional stance pending volume re-acceleration and cost stabilization.

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• Only 10% in Prime/Standard market were identified by investors as “showing progress in initiatives.” Unless managers return to management facing shareholders head-on, initiatives addressing specific, individual challenges will remain superficial.
• Investors should have voiced their opinions regarding the disclosure in  annual securities report prior to AGM, change in the record date, and postponement of the AGM by approximately one month.
• Rather than focusing on resolving specific individual issues, the TSE should educate companies on the fact that management has fiduciary duties and must fulfill them.

• PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. Tbk (ULTJ IJ) is Indonesia’s preeminent producer of aseptic dairy and ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, controlling dominant market share in Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) milk (Ultra Milk) and RTD tea (Teh Kotak). The company’s competitive moat is anchored by iconic brand equity, an integrated supply chain, and an extensive nationwide ambient distribution network.
• Financial performance demonstrates strong margin expansion and cash conversion, with FY2025 net profit reaching IDR 1,353.3B (+19.1% YoY) at a 15.4% net margin, accelerating further into 1H2026 with quarterly net margins surpassing 20%. ULTJ maintains a fortress balance sheet characterized by a net cash position, negligible financial leverage, and robust free cash flow generation (IDR 1,219.2B in FY2025).
• At current price levels (IDR 2,060), ULTJ presents an attractive risk-reward profile, trading at ~11.6x trailing P/E and ~5.4x EV/EBITDA—a substantial discount to domestic consumer staple peers (ICBP, CMRY, MYOR). The investment case is reinforced by an outstanding dividend yield of 6.31% (IDR 130/share DPS) and structural tailwinds in Indonesian per-capita dairy consumption.

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