Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Seven & I Holdings, Meituan, CJ Corp, Cocoa Futures, Central Plaza Hotel, NIQ Global Intelligence, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels, JB Hi-Fi Ltd and more

• AH premia flat again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
• Weeks ago I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Alimentation Couche-Tard just withdrew their offer to buy Seven&i for $47.2bn, and within two days, Seven’s share price is down 12.5% and ACT’s is up 10.6%.
• Seven’s management deluded itself into thinking it could match ACT’s returns by selling off non-core assets. This is pure financial gimmickry, and the market sees right through it.
• Seven will never see a deal as good as the one ACT offered, and failing to capitalize on should be investigated as a potential crime against common sense.

• ACT’s bid for Seven & I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
• Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
• The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes again US$17+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying strong at +US$550mm a day. Meituan the top buy extending a very strong 12 week run.
• Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Again. INFO TECH negative again after two weeks of buying broke a three-month sell streak.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• Korea surpassed France as the top exporter of cosmetics to the USA in 2024. Korea exported $1.7 billion worth of cosmetics to the USA in 2024, up 54.2% YoY.
• CJ Olive Young’s online cosmetic sales to overseas markets soared 70% YoY in 1H 2025, fueled largely by the explosive demand from the United States.
• We have raised our NAV valuation of CJ Corp to 207,713 won per share (up 28%). We raised the valuation of CJ Olive Young to 7 trillion won. 

• Concerns for sugar cane yields and sugar content in major sugar market exporter
• China’s soybean import demand reached record seasonal high, following Brazilian crop
• Short covering seen in grain complex, USDA trimmed US corn availability expectations, driving force behind corn price recovery; tariff impacts on Brazilian products into US market, potential changes in sweetener mix for Coca Cola

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• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).

• The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers is to debut on Wednesday, July 23rd.
• According to guidance, that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with long-only, 1-on-1 conversions including anchor indications.
• The company showed solid growth in 2024 of nearly 19% and followed that up with solid flash numbers of +7.5% growth in Q2.

• In 25Q1, Jin Jiang did not show a turning point in performance.There’s uncertainty about whether 2025 performance target can be achieved due to low efficiency of membership system/weak overseas business.
• The growth of the core mid-to-low end economic market is weak.The transition to the high-end market or international expansion is difficult to shoulder the banner of growth in short term.
• Valuation of Jin Jiang could be lower than Atour and H World Group, who have found new development paths and growth points.A relatively conservative valuation range is P/E of 15-18x.

• JB Hi-Fi Limited has presented a mixed financial performance for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, showcasing its resilience in a competitive and challenging retail environment.
• The company reported a solid increase in total sales across its key divisions, namely JB Hi-Fi Australia, JB Hi-Fi New Zealand, and The Good Guys.
• Total sales in JB Hi-Fi Australia grew by 7.2%, reaching AUD 3.88 billion, while JB Hi-Fi New Zealand exceeded expectations with a 20% rise in sales to NZD 202.5 million.