Daily Brief Consumer: Trip.com, Corn Active Contract, Wheat, Ricegrowers Ltd, Tractor Supply Company, ABC Mart, Select Harvests, Lululemon Athletica, Campbell Soup Co, Copart and more

• As expected, a SAMR investigation depressed top-line growth and profitability in Q226 
• Management offered no forward guidance on earnings call, but hinted at headwinds to come
• We believe it may take a few quarters for Trip.com to regain momentum

• Sentiment: Cautious Bearish, on a record managed-money long meeting a report that missed on the bearish side, with no flat-price information advantage in a settled crop.
• Treefera’s crop size agrees with the government’s, so the national number holds no edge.
• What is left to trade is which states grew the corn, and who is holding the position. Both sit outside the balance sheet the market is still trading.

• Sentiment: Cautious Bearish, conditional on Black Sea export disruption easing
• Chicago SRW wheat futures (ZW) December 2026 closed at $7.4125 per bushel on 10 September.
• The rally primarily reflects the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting Black Sea exports.

• Following the August 2026 reporting season, we look at key changes to peer consensus estimates, share-price movements and outlook commentary relevant to Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV).
• In terms of FY27 eps revisions across our selected peer group, we have seen a 17% reduction in (ASX:CBO) estimates and a 24% increase in (ASX:GNC) estimates, which has corresponded with the best and worst share price performances, respectively, over the period.
• The RaaS selected peer average outperformed the ASX200 by 8% over the past three months (+6% versus -2%), with (ASX:CBO) dragging the peer average down.

• Tractor Supply Company (TSCO US) maintains a commanding leadership position in the US ‘Out Here’ rural lifestyle retail sector, leveraging a network of over 2,200 stores anchored by non-discretionary C.U.E. (consumable, usable, and edible) product categories that insulate the top line against broader consumer discretionary cycles.
• Despite post-pandemic demand normalization and discretionary big-ticket headwinds, TSCO demonstrated resilient revenue growth reaching $15.52B in FY2025, supported by steady new store expansion, Project Fusion remodels, expanded garden center buildouts, and double-digit digital sales growth.
• Capital allocation remains disciplined, characterized by robust operating cash flow ($1.64B in FY2025), targeted portfolio optimization—including the strategic closure of underperforming Petsense units to scale higher-margin VIP Petcare clinics—and a committed shareholder return profile evidenced by a 2.93% dividend yield and a 5-year dividend CAGR of 25.12%.

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• ABC Mart aims to have 50 Oshman’s stores by 2031. 
• The plan is to build out Run & Fitness, a new, smaller concept designed for shopping malls and to appeal to more female customers through yoga and Pilates.
• The investment is part of wider plans to broaden ABC Mart’s business beyond footwear and firmly into the still growing sports market, both in Japan and around Asia.

• Select Harvests Ltd (ASX:SHV) is one of Australia’s largest almond growers, processors and sellers, with an extensive orchard footprint (Riverland, Sunraysia and Riverina) and increasing third-party volume processing.
• SHV provided a trading update (8 Sept) prior to the end of its financial year (30 Sept.) indicating additional harvest costs of $7m ($13m total costs) which have impacted in FY26 (initial weather-related costs at H1 indicated $6m).
• SHV also provided commentary on strengthening global pricing, increasing its pool almond price from $10.21/kg to $10.26/kg, and stating a marginally reduced crop range 28,800-29,600 metric tonnes, with processing now complete.

• Lululemon Athletica Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 results reflecting pressure in North America and China Mainland while continuing to invest for long-term growth.
• Net revenue declined 4%, or 5% in constant currency, to $2.4 billion, while comparable sales fell 10%.
• North America revenue decreased 8%, with comparable sales down 12%.

• The Campbell Soup Company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results and accompanying discussion reveal a business navigating a challenging environment marked by inflationary pressures, evolving consumer preferences, and the integration of a significant acquisition.
• The company reported a consolidated quarter inclusive of its recent 49% acquisition of La Regina, which introduced additional debt and associated interest expense into the financials.
• Net sales expectations for fiscal 2027 indicate a midrange organic decline around 3%, with the Meals and Beverages (MMB) segment anticipated to be slightly down throughout the year.

• Copart and ACV will combine in a friendly cash transaction that values ACV at $1.9 billion. Enterprise value = equity value as ACV has no net debt.
• Copart is paying 2.5x ACV’s 2025 revenue and 32x adjusted EBITDA.
• The deal is expected to close by the end of the calendar year and will eat up 40% of Copart’s current $4.5 billion cash/equivalents.