In today’s briefing:
- Curator’s Cut: “Bubble” Tea, Japan M&A 🍿and TSMC from Different Lenses
- How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
- Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
- ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
- Pre-IPO Green Tea Group – Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook
Curator’s Cut: “Bubble” Tea, Japan M&A 🍿and TSMC from Different Lenses
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time
How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
- Next day’s base price uses the 3:30pm close—NXT’s after-hours moves don’t count. That small gap can impact rights offerings, as seen in Samsung SDI’s pricing delta on April 8.
- NXT after-hours volumes count toward VWAP. So in uptrends, they can impact pricing—possibly with Samsung SDI’s final reference price on May 16.
- No shorting allowed after 3:30pm on NXT, leading to inefficiencies—while not yet fit for latency arb, it’s ripe for tactical day–night spread plays and re-entry timing.
Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are set to launch H Share listings.
- Event-Driven developments: Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP), Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US).
ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are gearing up for an IPO launch soon.
- On the placements front, there were two primary placements in Hong Kong, along with a number of lockup expiries coming up.
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group – Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook
- The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management’s consideration of attracting long-term funds.
- If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
- However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea’s valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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