In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
- New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
- Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
- CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside
- Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade
- [Earnings Preview] SLB’s Q2 Results to Disappoint as Growth Engines Stall
- [Earnings Preview] Halliburton Set to Slip on Q2 Disappointments as Drilling Slows
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
- Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index.
- That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
- We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.
New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
- Writing reports on copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU) is tricky as they have a half-life of days, sometimes hours, as Kinterra and Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) compete head-to-head.
- Last week, Kinterra bumped its off-market Offer to A$0.063/share; which increases to A$0.064/share if it gets to 30%. CAML, currently at A$0.062/share, has matching rights up until the 17th July.
- The Takeovers Panel has now, not altogether unsurprisingly, opted not to declare unacceptable circumstances regarding Kinterra’s two applications.
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
- Back on the 13th June, dual-listed silver play Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN),with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a
- Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie-listed line. And a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
- As Adriatic is incorporated in the UK, the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August.
CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside
- CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
- With H1 tracking >50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
- Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.
Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade
- Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.
- We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.
- If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.
[Earnings Preview] SLB’s Q2 Results to Disappoint as Growth Engines Stall
- Schlumberger’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 6.8% YoY but rise by 0.4% QoQ. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 14.1% YoY but rise 1.4% QoQ.
- SLB’s Q2 performance looks weak as falling activity in Saudi Arabia and Latin America adds to the ongoing slowdown in North America.
- Open interest data points to cautious sentiment, with positioning skewed toward downside protection and no clear directional conviction.
[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Set to Slip on Q2 Disappointments as Drilling Slows
- Halliburton’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 0.2% QoQ and 7.2% YoY. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 6.7% QoQ and 30% YoY.
- SLB’s Q2 update highlights a slowdown in key international markets, potentially foreshadowing similar headwinds for Halliburton’s global operations.
- Options positioning and technical signals point to a neutral-to-bearish market stance ahead of Q2 results.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
- Asia heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds at elevated levels even as it slips from recent highs.
- High heavy-grade margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output of the grades.
- Besides firm margins, outperformance of regional Group I SN 500 price relative to other grades and other regions points to even stronger fundamentals for that product.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
- US Group II base oils price-premium to heating oil edges lower, stays in narrow range since start of Q2 2025.
- Base oils price-premium stays rangebound even with expected improvement in supply and slowdown in demand in coming weeks.
- US base oils supply could rise more swiftly in coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.
Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited (0198068D IN) (EPPL) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, IIFL, Jefferies, Kotak.
- EPPL is an integrated solar PV module and cell manufacturer offering advanced technologies like TOPCon and Mono PERC.
- According to the CRISIL Report, as on Mar 25, EPPL was the second largest pure-play integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) module and solar cell manufacturer in India by production capacity.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
