Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Platinum, Hindalco Industries, Zhaojin Mining Industry H, Spanish Mountain Gold, Deep Yellow , Crude Oil, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Triple Flag Precious Metals , Anglo American and more

• Precious metals have posted high-double-digit YTD gains but extreme RSI readings across the precious metals complex resemble prior late-cycle exhaustion phases.
• Prior silver (2011) and platinum (2008) peaks saw weekly RSI above ~88–91, conditions that historically preceded blow-off tops and sharply negative forward returns.
• With long-only demand exhausted, mean reversion in Gold–Platinum and Gold–Silver ratios offers cleaner late-cycle exposure than outright metals.

• Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.
• Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.
• Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.

• Forward earnings compress valuation from >40× to ~14×, driven by pricing, volume absorption, and low costs, with NPAT rising toward RMB 6–6.5 bn by FY27.
• Concentrated float and GDX/Zijin ownership support a passive bid; dividend capacity lifts toward a 3–4% yield as cash exceeds RMB 4.5 bn.
• Throughput upgrades, Abujar recoveries and zero-marginal-cost ounces provide additional upside, sustaining FCF even at US$3,800 gold.

• This morning, SPA announced assay results from six drill holes as part of its 9,000-10,000m fall drill program (8,220m completed).
• Today’s results extend higher-grade mineralization over ~500m along the Orca Fault’s SE extension, reinforcing upside within the Main Deposit.
• Drilling supports advancement toward a 2027 construction decision, building on a PEA with $2.3B NPV5% and 32% IRR at US$3,300/oz.

• Management is utilizing FID deferral period by further derisking the Tumas Project through quantifiable progress across critical pre-production work streams.
• CEO transition adds volatility to Deep Yellow’s stock.
• New CEO, Greg Field, will take the helm no later than May 1, 2026 Drilling results at S Bend & Tinkas Prospects are encouraging for the potential for future resource growth at Tumas Update on uranium industry.

• Crude oil futures opened the week higher amid concerns over Venezuelan supplies after the US seized a second tanker on Saturday and was said to be in pursuit of a third.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.11/b (2020 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $60.47/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.03/b against a previous close of $56.52/b.
• Benchmarks extended the firmer tone seen at the back end of last week after a Panamanian-flagged VLCC, named as Centuries, was intercepted by the US Coast Guard, having earlier this month seized the Skipper.

Highlights

• October posts a sharp 20% YoY fall in export volume

• China dominates yet declines; secondary markets turn volatile

• Vietnam exports 1.47 million tons of rubber in first 10 months

• The October contraction underscored how demand-side hesitation intensified in the latter part of the year. Buyers delayed purchases amid uncertain downstream tyre demand, fluctuating currency conditions, and cautious inventory strategies.

• Triple Flag Precious Metals operates under a high-margin, lower-risk streaming and royalty business model, providing upfront financing to mining companies in exchange for a share of future production. This insulates it from direct operational and capital cost inflation.
• The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 25.02% and a 3-year operating cash flow CAGR of 25.68%. This growth is supported by a diversified portfolio of 235 assets, including 15 streams and 220 royalties.
• While revenue and cash flow growth are robust, net income has been volatile, showing a significant loss in 2024. Future profitability will be contingent on disciplined capital allocation for new accretive deals and the performance of its partners’ mining operations.

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• Canada’s ICA approval, with binding Vancouver HQ and C$4.5bn/5yr commitments, removes the policy overhang. From here, the story is antitrust pacing and the B.C. court order, not politics.
• Spread: net after AAL’s US$4.19 special and TECK’s C$0.125 dividend is ~2.78%; ~2.16% if one AAL ordinary (~US$0.21) lands pre-close. 
• Stance unchanged: long TECK (B) / short 1.3301× AAL, hedge GBP/CAD and overlay USD for AAL dividends. Tighteners: antitrust signals, copper tape, De Beers news; wideners: adverse headlines, FX basis.