Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Ramelius Resources, Zijin Gold, Resonac Holdings , Lundin Mining, Crude Oil, Perimeter Solutions , Anglo American and more

• Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
• As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
• The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here. 

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  
• I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case. 
• In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. 

• Resonac continues to reshape its portfolio, scaling growth materials while rationalising legacy chemicals and electrodes.
• FY2025 guidance appears conservative, particularly on profit, leaving room for upside if current momentum is sustained.
• Valuation & risk: Shares trade at a discount to global peers, with re-rating potential contingent on execution and balance sheet discipline.

• High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.
• Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.
• Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).

• Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

• In the history of mining corporate strategy, few companies have executed a more comprehensive and successful transformation than Lundin Mining between 2020 and 2024.
• Under the sequential leadership of CEO Peter Rockandel and his successor, Jack Lundin, the company has orchestrated a methodical repositioning from an unfocused, geographically diversified base metals producer into a concentrated, copper-dominant miner with world-class greenfield growth prospects.
• This transformation, achieved through the sale of non-core assets, a doubling down on the pursuit of operational excellence, and over four billion dollars in strategic capital allocation decisions, represents a masterclass in corporate strategy within the cyclical and capital-intensive mining industry.

• OPEC’s Group of Eight discussed unwinding production cuts and increasing oil production, led by Saudi Arabia to bring energy prices down
• OPEC’s cooperation with non-OPEC producers, including Russia and Kazakhstan, resulted in a 2 million barrels per day production cut in late 2022
• Dr. Anas Alhaji, Energy Outlook Advisors managing partner, discussed OPEC’s actions and outlook on oil prices in an interview with Macro Voices host, Eric Townsend

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• Price structures have remained resilient in 2025, with Brent and WTI in backwardation despite OPEC supply hikes and increasing crude inventories
• Five conditions were needed for crude prices to start reflecting year-end weakness, but only two have materialized so far
• OECD crude inventories have not built as aggressively as expected, with a lopsided increase in global stocks outside of Western markets, particularly in China

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• Perimeter had a strong quarter with revenues up 28% year over year to 163 million, driven by growth in both their fire safety and specialty products segments
• EBITDA growth was even stronger at 91 million, with the Fire Safety segment enjoying a 98% incremental margin, showing operating leverage and operational efficiency
• Perimeter’s acquisition strategy and diversification into new platforms are helping to offset the impact of wildfires on their business, with promising growth potential for the future.

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• Anglo Tech merger is a massive deal with significant potential synergies and benefits for both companies, particularly in copper production
• The deal is well structured with operational synergies and nil premium merger, making it difficult for potential interlopers to compete
• Anglo has shown remarkable turnaround from being undervalued and criticized to being a key player in the industry, with significant government approvals and listing requirements in place for the deal to be successful

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