Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Gold, Tung Ho Steel Enterprise, Copper, Fermi, Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Shivalik Rasayan, Press Metal and more

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) priced its IPO at HK$71.59 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$3.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 30.
• The IPO was discussed in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights.
• The market sentiment of the peers has increased since the IPO launch. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see two changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in December.

• Based on DCF model, valuation is about US$28.4 billion. We think this is the valuation bottom line. Conservative investors can take profits at this valuation level.
• Valuation has the potential to reach US$34-42bn (or 18-22x P/E ) if based on 2025 forecast.Optimistic investors can choose to wait for stock price to fall within this valuation range. 
• Considering better profitability/shareholder resources, Zijin Gold has more advantage than Shandong Gold Mining. Therefore, market value of Zijin Gold will widen the gap with Shandong Gold Mining in the future.

• Riding on strong investor demand, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  has exercised its over-allotment option, boosting the total IPO size to USD 3.7 billion from USD 3.2 billion previously.
• As Hong Kong’s only pure-play gold miner with global exposure, Zijin Gold may command a premium, though any sharp price gains still depend on sustained gold price strength.
• Investors should define their medium- to-long-term gold price thresholds to shape a clear post-IPO strategy for Zijin Gold.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) raised around US$3.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Copper prices surged from around $10,000 to $10,350 per metric ton due to a longer and more severe outage than expected at the Grasberg mine.
• The disruption in production is expected to result in a 200,000 metric ton shortfall in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a further 270,000 metric ton loss in 2026.
• The impact of the supply shortage has flipped the refined copper market from a surplus to a significant deficit, leading to a bullish outlook and a projected price increase to $11,250 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026.

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• Fermi (FRMI US) , amended the terms of its IPO on Monday morning increasing the size from 25.0 million shares offered to 32.5 million shares.
• The deal is multiple-times oversubscribed. The company conducted extensive testing-the-waters meetings with more than 100 accounts, drawing strong and high-quality demand.
• Data centers and powering the AI trade is likely to be a recurring theme over the coming year.

Key points (machine generated)

• Solaris’s stock has surged fourfold after acquiring Mobile Energy Rentals, driven by interest in data center power.
• Analysts criticize Solaris’s energy rental business for lacking sustainability and proprietary technology in a competitive market.
• Activist investors are targeting Solaris for short selling, indicating concerns over the sustainability of its growth.

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• Shivalik Rasayan, once focused on agrochemicals, has entered pharmaceuticals by acquiring Medicamen Biotech and securing USFDA approval for its new API plant at Dahej-II in 2024.
• The company is transforming into a diversified chemicals and pharma player. Investments in R&D, larger agrochemical capacity, and regulated pharma access open pathways for higher-margin and sustainable growth.
• Despite past issues of underutilized plants, high costs, and delays, recent approvals and new facilities position Shivalik Rasayan for steadier performance and long-term growth if execution remains strong.

• ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
• Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
• Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.