In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
- Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
- Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences
- Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook
- Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): A Relatively Decent 2H FY25
- 2025 High Conviction Update: TransMedics, Cut Long Exposure and Move To the Sidelines
- Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh
- Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast
- 5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&A and low-cost execution.
- Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
- Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity
- TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
- ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
- CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
- MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 – 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.
- We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?
- We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C
- Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
- AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
- Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected
Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences
- Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China’s September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
- Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
- Our “China Twelve” stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors’ preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the “top bought” Southbound list – reaffirming our bullishness on them.
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook
- The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
- Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
- We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.
Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): A Relatively Decent 2H FY25
- Tam Jai International (2217 HK)‘s net profit dropped 32.7% in FY25, but the 2H earnings have seen a recovery to an 18.2% YoY growth, vs. -55.8% in 1H.
- Net cash stayed intact at HK$1.33bn, or 65.1% of its market capitalisation. Management looks cautiously optimistic in the outlook, and will push for expansion of two Japanese brands.
- There has been minimal further noise from the minority shareholders. With the privatisation PER at over 60% premium to the sector average, we think most shareholders will give in.
2025 High Conviction Update: TransMedics, Cut Long Exposure and Move To the Sidelines
- TransMedics Group stock surged ~20% on blowout 1Q’25 earnings on Friday after the company beat earnings expectations and hiked 2025 revenue guidance.
- I launched coverage of the stock in November 2024 and added TransMedics Group to my high conviction list of ideas.
- TransMedics Group shares have massively outperformed in 2025 with shares up ~79% over the year. I acknowledge limited upside and lower my PT to $118 on peer-group multiple compression.
Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh
- Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
- Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
- Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
- Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
- Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
- Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.