In today’s briefing:
- 60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
- Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL
- [Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done
- [Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
- Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share
- Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed
- Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
- RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
- Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered
60 Stocks Screened by Tax Draft Setup — Short-Term Policy Flow Targets
- Revisions to the draft are almost certain, but near-term flows will still trade off the current framework—so screening now helps front-run likely winners before the final version lands.
- Out of 386 stocks with FY1/FY2 consensus data, 60 names screen in based on FY2: payout ≥40% or ≥25% with DPS up 5%+ vs. 3Y avg.
- This tax reform will still drive near-term KOSPI flow—these screened names are core policy plays worth building setups around.
Weekly Deals Digest (03 Aug) – CK Hutchison, Joy City, HKBN, Fujitec, Krosaki Harima, NSDL
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: NSDL (NSDL IN) is seeking to raise US$464 million.
- Event-Driven developments: CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP).
[Japan M&A] Krosaki Harima (5352) Takeout by Parent Nippon Steel – Cheapish But Done
- On Friday 1 August, Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and subsidiary Krosaki Harima (5352 JP) announced the parent would buy out the sub at ¥4,200/share.
- This seems light given the structure of the balance sheet (lots of net receivables – a bunch against the buyer) but it would be awfully tough to see this broken.
- As it is a long-dated deal, I expect it trades too tight early on, then may flatten or fade.
[Japan M&A] Fujitec (6406) PE Bid Not Super High But May Be Tough To Beat
- On 30 July, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) and Swedish PE Firm EQT announced a deal to acquire the company with the Uchiyama family. Two activists signed tender agreements.
- The deal is not expensive IF you underwrite strong profitability growth and assume the large net receivables position can be better addressed.
- But the stock is trading tight to terms and there are 6+ months until you get your money.
Merger Arb Mondays (04 Aug) – Santos, Joy City, HKBN, Krosaki Harima, Fujitec, Smart Share
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), New World Resources (NWC AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Nippon Concept (9386 JP).
Smart Share Global (EM US): MBO Firmed
- Nearly seven months after Smart Share (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal, a firm Offer has been entered into.
- Terms remains the same as the indicative NBIO: US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. The Offeror comprises a consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO.
- Timing from here? Perhaps three to four months, or late November completion by my estimate.
Smart Share Global (EM US): Trustar Capital-Sponsored MBO a Done Deal
- Smart Share Global (EM US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement for a Trustar Capital-sponsored MBO at US$1.25 per ADS.
- The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk), shareholder approval (effectively done) and a maximum dissenting condition (likely to be waived).
- This is a done deal. At the last close and for the end of December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.8%/20.1% (3.5%/8.7% including an ADS cancellation fee).
RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market
- Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June’s larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.
- Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets – a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade.
- Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
- GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
- Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
- Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.
Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered
- Advent raises its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, including a 6.3% premium over KKR’s prior offer, intensifying the competitive landscape and prompting a renewed board recommendation.
- Irrevocable undertakings and partial share acquisition reduce KKR’s strategic room, though the transaction remains under close investor scrutiny amid broader private equity competition for UK assets.
- Despite minimal spread, the situation offers insight into pricing discipline, sponsor credibility, and evolving UK M&A dynamics in a high-rate, FX-sensitive environment.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
