In today’s briefing:
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
- [Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
- Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
- Smartpay Faces Potential Buyout with 20% Upside Amid Regulatory Challenges and Strategic Interest from Shift4 Payments
- Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
- Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
- 3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
- Last year, Nissin Corp (9066 JP) started race-walking the good governance walk. The day they released earnings they announced crossholding sales and an overnight 23.61% ToSTNeT-3 Buyback (executed successfully).
- They also expected 19% Net Income Growth (to go with accretion), and in November, nearly doubled their dividend on new payout policy (minimum 4% DOE).
- Now, Bloomberg reports they are considering going private via a Bain MBO at ¥100bn+ (or a 30% premium).
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
- AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks.
- All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don’t expect much.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
- Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP) has recommended a MBO tender offer from Shunjiro Nagase (President) at JPY795 per share, a 43.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
- Irrevocables (55.40% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 12 May to 20 June (30 business days).
Smartpay Faces Potential Buyout with 20% Upside Amid Regulatory Challenges and Strategic Interest from Shift4 Payments
- Smartpay received takeover offers, including a cash bid of A$1.11/share from Shift4 Payments, with exclusivity granted.
- Regulatory changes threatening surcharging could impact Smartpay’s business model, potentially reducing Australian revenues by 10%.
- Market prices a 68% success chance for the A$1.11 offer; potential bidding war exists with multiple interested parties.
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
- We have a deal in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). It’s big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.
- Li Shufu-backed Geely Auto (175 HK) offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held Zeekr (ZK US). Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation. But still might bump terms.
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha
- I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Zeekr (ZK US), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).
- Key updates/news took place on: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP).
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