In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Activism] Fuji Media (4676) Offers Activists a Possible Juicy Way Out
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?
- [Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Feb26) – Disappointing Case Studies, Weak Study Group
- Aura’s Scrip Offer For Qoria (QOR AU) And Backdoor Listing
- IJM (IJM MK): Offer Doc Dispatched. Sunway Still To Vote On Terms
- When Gold & Silver Trades Like Bitcoin “What to Do”
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US): Options Price a Big Earnings Move on Feb 6
- KRX Pre- (7–8 AM) & After- (4–8 PM) Market Rollout in June: Key Trading Angles
- Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK): GuocoLand (GUOL SP)’s Privatisation Offer
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report
[Japan Activism] Fuji Media (4676) Offers Activists a Possible Juicy Way Out
- Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) ran into a scandal a year ago. It was scandalous before but it all got ugly a year ago. I discussed last year here.
- Last June, activist Dalton tried to spill the Board. It did not work. Incumbents and recommended got 81-86% support. Dalton’s slate got 10-27%. No joy.
- Activists are in big. Murakami at 17%. Dalton at 7+%. Last week, the Nikkei reported Dalton would push for a 10% of TSO buyback. Today, we got a bigger one.
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Who Wins This Game of Chicken?
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s 3Q results further emphasise that Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer is light. The offer implies a P/B ratio of 0.93x based on the 3Q book value.
- Fudosan’s assertion that it will not change the offer price is not credible. Elliott is likely to further increase its stake but is unlikely have its price expectations met.
- Fudosan’s likely gameplan is to bump above 3Q book value (JPY21,300 to bring the P/B back to the pre-3Q ratio of 1.05x) and possibly also lower the minimum.
[Japan CorpGov] TSE “Mgmt Conscious” Reports (Feb26) – Disappointing Case Studies, Weak Study Group
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- There were case study updates published late-Dec25. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 146 CGRs were filed in January after 475 in December 2025. It’s low season til spring.
- The ongoing Study Group to review Minority Shareholder Protection, etc has interim comments suggesting Toyota Fudosan’s claim of Majority of Minority is false (of course it is, but they’re nicer).
Aura’s Scrip Offer For Qoria (QOR AU) And Backdoor Listing
- Qoria (QOR AU) has announced a scrip merger with unlisted Boston-based Aura, to form an enlarged digital safety play under the ASX-ticker AXQ.
- Scrip terms – 17.2 QOR shares per AXQ share – will result in QOR shareholders holding 35% of the enlarged entity on a fully diluted basis.
- A merger makes sense. Both companies sell software to schools and parents offering “digital seatbelts”. There may, however, be a question mark over the reliability of the indicative Offer price.
IJM (IJM MK): Offer Doc Dispatched. Sunway Still To Vote On Terms
- Back on the 12th January, Sunway (SWB MK) tabled a voluntary RM3.15 cash/scrip Offer for Ijm Corp (IJM MK), an uninspiring 14.55% premium to undisturbed. Both companies would benefit from scale.
- On the 20th January, IJM confirmed it had met with Malaysia’s anti-graft body. Sunway subsequently reiterated it intends to proceed with the Offer.
- The Offer Doc is now out. However, Sunway has sought an extension to submit an independent advice circular.
When Gold & Silver Trades Like Bitcoin “What to Do”
- Precious metals have entered a high-volatility, paper-driven regime, but persistent central-bank physical buying and Asian demand continue to anchor long-term value despite violent price swings.
- The widening divergence between Western paper prices and Shanghai physical premiums signals liquidation-driven dislocations rather than fundamental weakness, creating tactical entry opportunities for disciplined investors.
- Investors should trade short-term volatility while accumulating strategic exposure, as gold and silver remain structurally supported with upside targets of USD5,400/oz and USD105/oz by end-2026.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US): Options Price a Big Earnings Move on Feb 6
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) reports FY2026 3Q results on 6 Feb 2026; options markets price elevated earnings-day volatility.
- Highlight: Options imply a ±6.1% earnings move vs. historical ±2.4%. Japan-listed options are priced materially richer than US-listed Toyota Motor ADR (TM US) counterparts.
- Why Read: A concise read-through of Toyota’s earnings-day price history, volatility regime, and options positioning ahead of the announcement.
KRX Pre- (7–8 AM) & After- (4–8 PM) Market Rollout in June: Key Trading Angles
- Starting June, KRX adds a 7–8 a.m. pre-market and 4–8 p.m. after-market, aiming for a 24-hour, near-continuous KOSPI by 2027.
- Key focus: Can KRX’s extended hours absorb overnight volatility, letting desks manage delta early, while quants face a routing arms race across KRX (7 a.m.) and Nextrade (8 a.m.)?
- KRX targets June for rollout, no exact date yet. Brokers are upgrading systems, and early glitches like order inversion are likely, so close monitoring is needed.
Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK): GuocoLand (GUOL SP)’s Privatisation Offer
- GuocoLand (GUOL SP) has submitted a proposal to privatise Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)/GLM through a selective capital reduction at RM1.10 per share, a 17.6% premium to the last close price.
- The GLM Board has until 2 March (unless extended) to decide. It is likely that the 60% YTD share price rise forced the announcement before Board support could be secured.
- While the offer is below NAV (implying a P/NAV of 0.53x), it represents an eight-year high. The shareholder vote is low-risk as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2026 Report
- M&A reactivates DLC risk: Rio–Glencore talks triggered rare compression in the Rio Ltd/Plc spread, highlighting how strategic actions — not activism — force re-pricing of dual-listed structures.
- Structure over quality: Holdco and DLC discounts tightened only where governance or M&A pressure emerged; high-quality portfolios alone proved insufficient to drive convergence across 2025.
- Event-Driven optionality remains: Wide discounts persist where enforcement is delayed, but asymmetric upside remains where regulators or corporates retain credible power to force structural outcomes.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
