In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
- The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
- Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered
- LS Group Family Members Sold a 6.3% Stake in LS Ecoenergy – To Buy More Shares of LS Corp?
- Buy 99 Shares of Lennar (LEN) – Special Situation Odd Lot
- Daiichi a Possible Target for Arcs Takeover as Gains in Hokkaido
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October’25 Report
- Analyzing Bel Fuse Share Class Arbitrage: BELFB Premium Over BELFA and AI-Driven Market Dynamics
[Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher
- The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events.
- After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up.
- Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.
The Li Family’s Latest U.S. Setback As The FCC Targets HKT
- First it was the Li family’s, via CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), investment in two Panama ports, which raised the ire of the U.S. government. And remains unresolved.
- Now the U.S.’s Federal Communication Commission (FCC) has taken the initial step to “expel Hong Kong Telecom” – i.e. HKT Ltd (6823 HK) – from the US telecommunication network.
- The FCC order cites HKT’s affiliation with black-listed China Unicom (762 HK). Unicom holds a 18.4% stake in PCCW (8 HK), HKT’s parent. A stake it acquired twenty years ago.
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Finish Line in Sight as the Minimum Tendering Condition Is Lowered
- Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.
- The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends.
- Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.
LS Group Family Members Sold a 6.3% Stake in LS Ecoenergy – To Buy More Shares of LS Corp?
- It was reported that various members of the LS Group family/relatives sold a 6.3% stake in LS Eco Energy Ltd (229640 KS) for about 70 billion won in after-hours trading.
- There is an increasing probability that this could lead to these insiders purchasing more shares of LS Corp to defend their controlling stake of the company from the Hoban Group.
- Hoban Group is likely to have acquired more than 3% stake in LS Corp. If so, it can request to inspect LS Corp’s books and convene a shareholders’ meeting.
Buy 99 Shares of Lennar (LEN) – Special Situation Odd Lot
- Lennar (LEN) announced an exchange offer on October 10, 2025 whereby investors can exchange their LEN shares for shares of Millrose Properties (MRP), Lennar’s land bank spin-off.
- To incentivize the exchange, LEN investors will receive $106.43 of value in MRP shares for every $100 of value in LEN shares.
- I expect the exchange offer to be oversubscribed, However, there is an odd lot provision such that any L:EN shareholders with 99 shares or less (odd lot provision) will not be prorated.
Daiichi a Possible Target for Arcs Takeover as Gains in Hokkaido
- Ito-Yokado’s withdrawal from the Hokkaido market has proven a windfall for affiliated chain, Daiichi.
- The Hokkaido supermarket has already opened new stores in sites vacated by Ito-Yokado – the only difficulty has been finding ways to fill the larger spaces.
- Now Arcs is waiting in the wings in case Daiichi becomes available for takeover – Arcs’ chairman owns 1% of Daiichi personally.
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October’25 Report
- Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
- Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
- Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.
Analyzing Bel Fuse Share Class Arbitrage: BELFB Premium Over BELFA and AI-Driven Market Dynamics
- BELFB trades at a 25% premium to BELFA; both share classes have identical economic rights but different voting and dividend structures.
- The BELFB premium may be influenced by AI data center excitement, better liquidity, and recent credit facility amendments.
- Share class arbitrage lacks a clear catalyst and timeline; previous price gaps closed within a year or longer.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
