In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In
- Retail Range-Trading Hynix Is Driving Short-Term Inflection in Square NAV Trade
- Leoch Int’l (842 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing Of Leoch Energy
- Neinor-Aedas Homes: Mandatory OPA Triggered — Low-Risk Carry With CNMV Optionality
[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
- The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%.
- When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.
Retail Range-Trading Hynix Is Driving Short-Term Inflection in Square NAV Trade
- Structurally, Square’s NAV trade still works. The Hynix stake alone implies a 60%+ discount, well above local norms, with policy tailwinds supporting long-term compression.
- Near term, Square’s NAV is a derivative of retail Hynix flows. Today was the first real unwind since the 10th, with retail net selling roughly 5x yesterday’s retail net-sell.
- Retail sold both, but Hynix again dominated the tape. Retail is range-trading ₩500ks, and that behavior is the key driver of Square’s short-term NAV inflection.
Leoch Int’l (842 HK)’s Spin-Off and Listing Of Leoch Energy
- Back in February 2025, Leoch International Technology (842 HK) (“LIT”), a leading manufacturer of lead-acid batteries, announced the spin-off and separate listing of wholly-owned Leoch Energy on a US exchange.
- LIT will distribute all shares held in-specie. There will be no concurrent global offering.
- Leoch Energy, the international arm of the group, accounted for 32% of LIT’s revs in the 1H25, and 15% of profit.
Neinor-Aedas Homes: Mandatory OPA Triggered — Low-Risk Carry With CNMV Optionality
- Neinor has secured 79.2% of AEDAS, triggering a mandatory OPA at a €24.00 minimum, with CNMV approval now the only remaining step.
- With the stock at €23.85, downside is tightly capped by the €24.00 floor, while upside depends on any CNMV-mandated “equitable price” uplift.
- The situation is no longer binary: execution risk is minimal, and the trade now offers low-risk carry with limited but asymmetric regulatory optionality.
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