In today’s briefing:
- Korea’s 4th Policy Trade Is Right Around the Corner: Mandatory Tender Offers
- StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
- A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report
Korea’s 4th Policy Trade Is Right Around the Corner: Mandatory Tender Offers
- The next policy swing is mandatory tender offers (MTO), with the gov’t + ruling party pushing for passage this session, likely alongside the mandatory treasury-share cancellation.
- 2022 FSS/FSC 50%+1 trigger scrapped; 25% stays. Ruling party favors 50%+ MTO, base case 100%, but pushback may reduce to 70–80%.
- MTOs tighten discounts, benefit minority holders; focus on local holding firms, PE-backed exits, and parent-driven M&A prospects.
StubWorld: Don’t Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) – Buy More
- At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy‘s words: “Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise.”
- Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
A Review of Tender Offers in Korea in 2025
- In this insight, we review the major tender offers of Korean companies in 2025. Some of the major M&A tender offers in 2025 include HMM, Kolon Mobility Group, and VIOL.
- The tender offers have mostly been profitable for the investors in these targeted companies (especially those shareholders who owned these shares prior to the tender offer announcement).
- What is also impressive is that even after the 1st day of trading (post tender offer announcement), there have been extra alpha for the following week.
Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer
- Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
- The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
- Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report
- Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
- Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
- Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.
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