In today’s briefing:
- Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
- Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action
- Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
- SelfWealth (SWF AU): Peter Thiel-Backed Svava Crashes Bell’s Offer
- EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (Jan 24 – 31): Second Longest Decline Since 2007
- Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote
- Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T’Way Air
- EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): USD/JPY and Nikkei at a Stalemate
- Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF, AAF, WDC)
Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
- Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
- Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time).
- Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.
Lee Jae-Yong’s Appeal Verdict: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Samsung Life’s Big Price Action
- Once Samsung F&M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.
- Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.
- The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics’, will boost market clarity.
Vesync (2148 HK): Antitrust Condition Satisfied, and the Scheme Vote Remains Low-Risk
- On 27 December 2024, Vesync (2148 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from the Yang family at HK$5.60. On 28 January, the antitrust condition was satisfied.
- Despite a light offer, the scheme vote is low-risk. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, there is a scrip option with no cap, and there is no retail opposition.
- The scheme document will be despatched by 11 April. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 6.9% and 22.7%, respectively.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
- Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
- The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.
SelfWealth (SWF AU): Peter Thiel-Backed Svava Crashes Bell’s Offer
- On the 25th November, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) at A$0.25/share after outbidding AxiCorp Financial Services.
- Now Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava has tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Svava also holds an effective blocking stake – 18.8% of shares out.
- SelfWealth said Svava’s proposal “while indicative and non-binding, could be reasonably considered to become a superior proposal.” BFG needs to step up.
EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (Jan 24 – 31): Second Longest Decline Since 2007
- Nifty has been in a prolonged downtrend, currently 4 months in duration and clipping 10.3% off the index. This is the second longest decline since 2007.
- When looked at vs the extent of this decline, implied vol is at the bottom of its historical range and historic vol also quietest in a down-move since 2007.
- Implied vol is trading at or above peak levels seen on historic vol since the decline started and implied remains negatively correlated to movements in spot.
Vesync (2148 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of The Scheme Vote
- Back on the 27th December, Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliances, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Yang family controlling ~69.04% of Vesync.
- The Cancellation Price of $5.60/share, declared final, was a 33.3% premium to undisturbed, and above the 2020 IPO price of HK$5.52/share.
- The US anti-trust condition has now been fulfilled. The Scheme Doc dispatch has been extended to the 11 April. I estimate payment under the Offer late May.
Daemyung Sono Group May Wage a Public Opinion War for T’Way Air
- In the past two trading days, share prices of T’Way Air (091810 KS) and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are down 16.4% and 14.1%, respectively.
- According to Hankyung daily, Daemyung Sono Group Chairman Seo may choose to wage a public opinion war, instead of purchasing additional shares.
- If Daemyung Sono Group is unable to take over the management control of T’Way Air using this method, then a potential tender offer of T’Way Air is possible later on.
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 27 – 31): USD/JPY and Nikkei at a Stalemate
- This week we add in some additional graphs and commentary highlighting USD/JPY vs Nikkei 225.
- Implied vols were very reactive to spot to open the week with Nikkei dropping almost 1% on Monday.
- Heavier volume on the down days with Puts making up 57.8% of the total weekly volume.
Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF, AAF, WDC)
There were no new spin-off announcements this week, but I’ve done some more work on the Aptiv (APTV) spin-off announcement.
Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business. The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.
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