In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings
- [Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause
- Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): MAC Musings
- Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share.
- The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation.
- Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.
[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback
- With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
- The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
- If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause
- On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be <16% so that the MAC is not triggered.
- However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises “from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Is the Mystery Buyer and Seeks a Controlling Stake at A$0.80
- Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding offer from BGH to acquire a controlling interest at A$0.80 per share, a 10.1% discount to the last close.
- BGH was also disclosed as the mystery buyer of the 5% stake on 8 May. BGH currently represents 10.76% of outstanding shares.
- The offer will likely be structured as a takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. It is unattractive, and the Board should negotiate better terms.
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