In today’s briefing:
- Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
- Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come
- HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun
- Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE
Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come
- In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant.
- This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%).
- Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.
HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors.
- However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.
Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
- Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
- Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE
- For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
- The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.
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