In today’s briefing:
- Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
- StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
- TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
- CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
- Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
- Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
- Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line
- PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure
- GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive
Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
- Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling.
- Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
- On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.
StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is “Cheap”
- As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
- Preceding my comments on Japan Post – and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
TSI Holdings (3608) – YET ANOTHER Big Buyback, Still Good, Still Cheap, But B/S Restructuring Slow
- A bit over three years ago I re-wrote on Tsi Holdings (3608 JP). Then? EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA of 0.03x and 0.5x respectively. I pounded the table.
- My recommended trade: “Buy the stock (preferably from cross-holders interested in selling). Buy with both hands. Buy a lot. Buy more later. Pressure the company to go private.”
- Since then, total return has been +295%. Today they announced another buyback. Tomorrow morning it gets done. Details details details!
CK Hutchison (1 HK): State of Limbo as Exclusivity Deadline Approaches
- The 145-day exclusivity period between CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) and the BlackRock-TiL consortium for the politically charged ports deal ends on July 27.
- The transaction is in limbo as China’s preferred pathway for approval (COSCO is included in the consortium as an equal partner) has several issues.
- It is equally probable that the deal will be finalised in some shape or form or fall apart. With shares up 31% and nearing a five-year high, take profits.
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80
- On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
- The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction.
- The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.
Korea’s Div Tax Overhaul Playbook: Payout Growers Set for Momentum (Screened in Excel)
- Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
- Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
- I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.
Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line
- UniCredit ends pursuit of BPM: Facing firm resistance from BPM and Rome, UniCredit formally withdraws its bid — closing the door on a deal the market never priced as likely.
- Persistent negative spread undermined credibility: The gross spread remained negative from day one, reflecting deep investor skepticism around deal viability, regulatory clearance, and BPM’s willingness to engage.
- Strategic implications for both sides: BPM reverts to standalone trajectory amid sector consolidation chatter; UniCredit’s retreat highlights constraints on its inorganic strategy — both political and market-driven.
PMV Pharmaceuticals: Evaluating Cash Position and Strategic Options Amid Upcoming Trial Results and Shareholder Pressure
- PMVP’s market cap is $72m, with $166m in cash as of Q1, offering substantial discount to net cash.
- Interim trial results for rezatapopt, targeting p53 Y220C mutation, expected soon; ORR of 30%+ seen as success.
- Shareholder pressure significant, with 36% voting against board compensation; potential for strategic review if results disappoint.
GCI Liberty Spin-off Deep Dive
- In anticipation of its merger with Charter Communications (CHTR), Liberty Broadband (LBRDA/LBRDK) spun off its Alaska telecom business (GCI Liberty).
- Liberty shareholders received 0.20 shares of GCI Liberty common stock per Liberty Broadband common share. Regular way trading starting on July 15, 2025.
- GCI Liberty is the leading telecom provider in Alaska. The remoteness and harshness of the Alaskan landscape provides a moat around its business.
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