In today’s briefing:
- Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
- Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
- Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
- Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
- Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
- Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May
- Initiating Coverage Of “New” Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals
- Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer
- Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield
Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
- Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
- Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
- The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.
Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
- The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
- Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
- The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.
Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
- Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
- Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
- The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
- The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
- Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Apr25), 🚨 AGAIN Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
- TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
- 611 new CGRs filed since 1-Mar-25. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and a diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes in the reports.
- The JPX was curiously quiet itself as far as I can tell. No new governance reports, documents, etc, though there is a small consultation this month on the JPXNikkei400.
Dropsuite (DSE AU): Scheme Vote on 9 May
- The Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) IE considers NinjaOne’s A$5.90 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$3.92-5.88 valuation range.
- The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. Despite the largest shareholder’s selldown, the vote remains low-risk.
- The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for a 30 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.7%/11.5%.
Initiating Coverage Of “New” Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals
- Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
- Following Telecom Italia’s strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
- Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.
Dropsuite (DSE AU): 9th May Vote On NinjaOne’s Offer
- On the 28th January 2025, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
- NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to undisturbed. The Offer had the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31% – at the time!). Board/management held a further 9%.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, and expected payment on or before the 30th May. The IE (BDO) says “fair & reasonable“.
Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield
- Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.
- Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.
- Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.
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