In today’s briefing:
- Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better
- Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways
- Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.
- [Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.
- CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130
- Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis
Sun Corp (6736) – CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better
- 12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
- The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
- Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm…
Current Samsung Biologics Split Dynamics with Alpha Potential Both Ways
- One of the hottest local plays is gauging KRX and FSS leanings on Biologics split, which could drive short-term alpha across the three Samsung names alongside battery and HBM flows.
- Short-Term focus is KRX pre-listing review and FSS registration window. Once approval and lock-up kick in, Biologics and Samsung Electronics could outperform Samsung C&T.
- From a risk-hedge angle, this is a long-short alpha setup: if the split fails, Samsung C&T likely takes the hit, offering alpha potential both ways.
Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.
- Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro (TYR AU) provided Potentia with due diligence to “enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal“. Potentia walked away from talks in May.
- Then crickets. Yesterday (12th August), Tyro’s shares gained 10.6%. After announcing this morning it has received unsolicited NBIOs, shares gained a further 8.6% (as I type), touching a 17-month high.
- At A$1.17/share, Tyro is ~27% adrift of Potentia’s last confirmed indicative Offer.
[Japan M&A] CareNet (2150 JP) MBO-Ish LBO of Medical Platform Biz; Light. SUPER Opaque Process.
- Todfay after the close, EQT and Carenet Inc (2150 JP) announced an EQT SPC would launch a TOB to buy out the medical platform business.
- A growthy business so the multiple looks light. But the founder and his incubation fund is selling. That’s 19%. Insiders/crossholders hold another 25%. One recent seller still has 10%.
- This looks like it gets done, but it isn’t at the highs of 4+ years ago. Some retail may be upset.
CareNet (2150 JP): EQT’s Tender Offer at JPY1,130
- Carenet Inc (2150 JP) has recommended a tender offer from EQT (EQT SS) at JPY1,130, a 47.3% premium to the last close.
- Despite the lack of an auction, the offer is reasonable as it aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and at a premium to historical ranges.
- Irrevocables to accept represent a 17.03% ownership ratio. This is likely a done deal with payment from 7 October.
Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis
- With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
- Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
- Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.
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