In today’s briefing:
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure
- Strategy (MSTR US)’s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some
- Hynix & Square L2 Flags Set to Squeeze Spread Near Term
- Meilan Airport (357 HK): SPA Precondition Satisfied, Setting up an Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
- Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure
- Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a Toyota Industries (6201 JP) ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.
- The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.
- A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000.
Strategy (MSTR US)’s Bitcoin Premium Evaporates. And Then Some
- Strategy (MSTR US)‘s market cap has for near-on five years, traded at a premium to its bitcoin holdings.
- The backbone of Strategy’s levered strategy is issue new shares or debt, acquire more bitcoins, which in turn, boost the share price. Rinse and repeat. Until the music stops.
- That market cap is now at its widest discount in five years. And chairman Michael Saylor scandalously mooted the company may sell some bitcoins IF the discount persists.
Hynix & Square L2 Flags Set to Squeeze Spread Near Term
- SK Hynix and SK Square hit L2 flags; cash-only until Dec 24. Margin off, >40% two-day rip triggers halt. L2 lifts if below T-5/+45%, T-15/+75%, and 15-day high.
- L2’s usually a non-event, but this time the margin freeze probably smacks Hynix harder. Key trigger is staying below the 15-day high: Hynix ₩587,000, Square ₩324,000.
- Govt set to roll out AI-semiconductor holdco deregulation this week, boosting AI holdcos like Square and juicing a near-term Square-over-Hynix trade opportunity.
Meilan Airport (357 HK): SPA Precondition Satisfied, Setting up an Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
- On 30 April, Haikou Meilan International Airport entered a SPA with Hainan Airport Infrastructure (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 (HK$10.62).
- The SPA precondition is satisfied, and the SPA will be completed within 20 business days. Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$10.62.
- Tendering is likely to be low as the offer is unattractive. At the last close and for a mid-February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.2%/1.1%.
Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA
- Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.
- On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).
- De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.
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