In today’s briefing:
- Korea’s Dividend Narrative Is Back: Unpacking the DP’s New Bill and Its Backstory
- Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?
- Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted
- Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- CPKF: Second Quarter Diluted EPS Beats our Estimate by 0.04
- Toast Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage- A Tale Of Growing Transaction Volume & Soaring Fintech Profits!
Korea’s Dividend Narrative Is Back: Unpacking the DP’s New Bill and Its Backstory
- A new bill cutting Korea’s dividend tax hit the tape, giving local dividend plays an immediate boost on the news flow.
- The presidential office is aligned on pushing the dividend tax below the 27.5% CGT floor. The new party leader is also tightly syncing with the Blue House to avoid clashes.
- The DP’s tax cut move today puts the gov’s dividend narrative back in play with juice. We need setups to ride this theme.
Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?
- On the 7th April, the Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) consortium announced a NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for shares not held in Abacus Storage (ASK AU) at A$1.47/security.
- ASK rejected the Offer on the 13th May. The Kirsh-led consortium bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share on the 14th July, and was granted six weeks of due diligence.
- DD expires on or around the 1st September. Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Currently trading at a 7.5% spread to the indicative terms.
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted
- The six-week due diligence for Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)‘s A$1.65 offer for Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) ends on 1 September.
- Some readers have asked if ASK is attractive at the current 7.5% gross spread. I think caution is warranted as there is a medium-to-high probability of no deal.
- The probability of a binding scheme is low, as NSR will block it, and the Board requires a bump to recommend it. A takeover offer is not a credible alternative.
Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Key Buy Targets To Watch
- As predicted in our July 15th insight, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied past 41k (reached near 44k) and now, as predicted by our latest WEEKLY HEAT MAP, went down.
- The index reached a low of 42724 this week, it is only mildly oversold so far, probability of reversal is around 52% at the moment.
- Key support levels to watch are 42577 (Q2) and 41606 (Q3). A file with all our PRICE/TIME model dataset for the Nikkei 225 is attached at the end, for your reference.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Country Garden, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp, Sunny Optical
- UST yields declined 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, with limited catalysts on the macro front and amid a sell-off in equities. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.75%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 3 bps to 4.31%. Equities retreated, driven by a sell-off in tech stocks. The S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 6,411, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.5% to 21,315.
- In the US, July housing starts rose 5.2% m-o-m (-1.8% e / 5.9% p) to an annualised 1.43 mn units. That said, the July (preliminary) building permits fell 2.8% m-o-m (-0.5% e / -0.1% p) to an annualised 1.35 mn units.
CPKF: Second Quarter Diluted EPS Beats our Estimate by 0.04
- CPKF’s second quarter net earnings increased $0.1 million, or 4%, to $3.1 million year over year, while 2025’s second quarter diluted EPS rose $0.02, or 7%, to $0.67.
- This was better than our estimate, which had called for a slight decline in net earnings of about $55,000 (off by about $50,000), as well as a $0.02 drop in EPS (off by $0.04).
- We are increasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2025 by a nickel from $2.70 to $2.75, representing a 14% gain over 2024’s actual EPS of $2.42.
Toast Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage- A Tale Of Growing Transaction Volume & Soaring Fintech Profits!
- Toast, Inc., a leading restaurant management platform, recently announced its second-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a strong performance with some encouraging metrics but also facing challenges as it navigates growth and expansion in various segments and geographies.
- In the quarter ended June 30, 2025, Toast reported a 35% increase in recurring gross profit, achieving $161 million in adjusted EBITDA, with GAAP operating income reaching $80 million.
- The company added a record 8,500 net new restaurant locations, bringing the total to approximately 148,000 locations served.
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