In today’s briefing:
- Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
- Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences
- Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT
- Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
- This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
- Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
- FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.
Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
- JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences
- In last week’s 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
- We said don’t be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.
Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT
- Link REIT, as the largest REIT in Asia, owns a well diversified portfolio which provides visibility and certainty to its future growth
- Given the stable fundamentals in Hong Kong, we think the REIT is over-penalized by the market, which presents an attractive entry point
- Valuation is not demanding, we think it is a good opportunity for long-term investor
Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25
- We summarize the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) earnings for FY24. Revenues/core earnings declined 1.2%/2.9% YoY. Inclusive of the gain in the stake of PDS, profits were up 56% YoY.
- The outlook for 2025 is strong, bolstered by the completed acquisition of a 78.3% stake in PDS and a 75% increase in listing maintenance fees, which contribute 18% of revenues.
- With a FY25 PE of 13.6x, over 10% cash in the market, more than 50% EBITDA, and a 7.4% dividend yield, the stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In the US, the ISM manufacturing index edged down to 50.3 (50.7 e / 50.9 p) in February.
- This was on account of a contraction in the new orders and employment components, which were offset somewhat by a sharp increase in the prices paid component.
- Meanwhile, the February (final) S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (51.2 p), above the preliminary estimate of 51.6.
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