In today’s briefing:
- Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade
- Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals
- Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?
- SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): A Closer Look At Its Energy Sector Expansion & Innovation!
- Equitable Holdings Is Looking To Reshape Wealth & Retirement—But Can It Truly Become A Major Financial Powerhouse?
- DLocal Unlocks New Growth Avenues Through Emerging Market Penetration & Innovation in Payment Orchestration!
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.
Yoon’s Impeachment Confirmed: Key Timeline & Regime Change Trade
- The Constitutional Court approved President Yoon’s impeachment. The PM steps in as interim president, with a new election expected by May 28, 2025, before June 3.
- The Democratic Party is the frontrunner, and if they win, expect a “regime change trade” with policy shifts toward green energy, welfare, public stimulus, and SME-focused initiatives.
- Big-Cap builders, nuclear stocks, and major financials may struggle if the new regime focuses on public housing, anti-nuclear policies, and pro-SME, labor-friendly initiatives.
Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals
- The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
- We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
- A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.
Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?
- Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout?
- As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can’t predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes.
- What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal.
SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987
- Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
- We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
- With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): A Closer Look At Its Energy Sector Expansion & Innovation!
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) delivered a record-breaking performance in 2024, marked by robust financial results and strategic progress across its diverse business segments.
- For the full year, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.07, representing an 8% increase year-over-year, with net revenues reaching an unprecedented $9.3 billion.
- This growth was partly fuelled by the strategic acquisition of Black Knight, which contributed to a 6% pro forma revenue increase versus the prior year.
Equitable Holdings Is Looking To Reshape Wealth & Retirement—But Can It Truly Become A Major Financial Powerhouse?
- Equitable Holdings reported strong financial results for the year 2024, driven by the integrated business model across its Retirement, Asset Management, and Wealth Management segments.
- Full-year non-GAAP operating earnings reached $2 billion, or $5.93 per share, reflecting a 29% increase from the previous year on a per-share basis.
- Adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS was $6.18, which exceeded annual growth expectations of 12% to 15%, showing a 20% growth.
DLocal Unlocks New Growth Avenues Through Emerging Market Penetration & Innovation in Payment Orchestration!
- dLocal, an emerging markets-focused payments company, recently reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating strong performance and strategic positioning in the digital payments industry.
- The company achieved a record Total Payment Volume (TPV) of $26 billion for the year, reflecting a 45% increase compared to the previous year, with significant contributions from key markets such as Argentina, Egypt, and other regions in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
- This growth highlights dLocal’s successful expansion into frontier markets and its ability to adapt to the evolving needs of global merchants.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (04-Apr-2025): JD Property buying Brisbane estate for $153M.
- JD Property is acquiring Brisbane estate from ESR JV for $153M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.
- M&G and Nuveen have appointed new global real estate heads, signaling strategic leadership changes within their respective companies.
- GLP completes a $360M China data center fund, highlighting their continued investment in the growing data center market in China. Warburg Pincus acquires Tokyo office building through Life Sciences JV with Eastgate, further expanding their real estate holdings in Asia.
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