Daily Brief Financials: Lifenet Insurance Company, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Cromwell Property, JPY, Insignia Financial, Bajaj Finance Ltd, PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar, Accelerant Holdings, HDFC Bank and more

• On Friday after the close, Lifenet Insurance Company (7157 JP) announced that it would move to TSE Prime on 25 July 2025. 
• That means it will go into TOPIX on 29 August 2025 at the close. There is a lot to buy. Under the old Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion matrix, it’s super green.
• It also has a very interesting shareholder structure which is worth looking at in detail.

• Trading tax gradually dropped from 0.25% in 2020 to 0.15% in 2025, boosting volatility and short-term trades; a hike to 0.25% could cool momentum but widen arbitrage and basis spreads.
• If the major shareholder tax threshold drops to ₩1B, year-end retail dumps and Jan buybacks will return—but with less wild swings and more measured short-term fade and momentum trades.
• If the tax revamp drops end-July, expect a September Assembly push. Usually effective next January, but like 2023’s cap gains hike, changes might apply immediately in 2025.

• As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?,  after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
• After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. 
• Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR’s remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.

• Default markets are taking a breather and cleansing weak hands, with global fiscal concerns affecting G10 markets.
• Japan’s upcoming upper house elections could impact fiscal situation and yen value.
• Dollar strength has been driven by mixed US data and policy news, with potential for dollar Bears to get a reprieve.

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• Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has entered into a Scheme with CC Capital at $A$4.80/share. 
• That’s 56.9% premium to undisturbed (11th December 2024), 20% above Bain’s initial indicative tilt last year, but 4% below CC Capital (% Bain’s) A$5.00/share indictive Offer on the 7th March.
• Apart from the Scheme vote, CC Capital’s Offer requires a raft a regulatory approvals. The SID indicates 1H26 completion.

• Anup Saha’s sudden resignation as MD of Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), just three months into the role, raises succession planning concerns.
• The architect of BAF’s growth resumes full control as VC & MD until March 2028, ensuring near-term continuity.
• While operations remain stable, the event sharpens focus on long-term leadership depth in India’s most premium NBFC.

• Since inception on February 27, our equal-weighted Indian Mid-Cap basket has appreciated 29.4%, sharply outperforming the BSE Mid-Cap Index (18.6%). We revisit our basket and apply the relevant screens again. 
• We screen on minimum 10% EPS CAGR over next two years, maximum PEG of 1.3x, consensus rating of buy/overweight and upward revision in consensus EPS estimate over past 6 months.
• 14 stocks come up in our new India Mid-Caps basket – fewer than the 20 that we had earlier. Four stocks are common with the previous basket.

• BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
• With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
• The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.

• According to our sources, the deal is double-digits oversubscribed with “meaningful mutual fund conversions”.
• Exchange written premiums were $3.1b in 2024 and the company is projecting premiums of $2.0b-$2.1b in the 1H 2025 alone.
• From a valuation standpoint, the company is targeting a near 20x multiple of EV-to-Ebitda and mid-teens multiple based on 2026 Ebitda which is considered aggressive.

• HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)‘s Q1FY26 PAT up 12% YoY, driven by strong other income; core NII growth remained modest at 5.4%.
• Deposit growth remained robust; CASA revival and CD ratio improvement are key near-term priorities. However, margins under pressure from EBLR resets,but contingent provisions and stable asset quality offer medium-term stability.
• Bank should come back to its pre-merger metric by end of FY26. However, current valuation at 3x P/B leaves little room for error.