Daily Brief Financials: SBI Shinsei Bank, Aspen Group, Stockland, Futu Holdings Ltd, Molten Ventures , First Property and more

• The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
• I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
• But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.

• Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
• Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
• Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.

• Context: The GPT Group (GPT AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Stockland (SGP AU) and short The GPT Group (GPT AU) targets a 4% return, with Stockland (SGP AU) supported by a lower P/E multiple.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Futu Holdings is a high-growth, technology-driven online brokerage and wealth management platform with a strong foothold in Hong Kong and expanding international operations.
• The company has demonstrated exceptional financial performance, characterized by robust revenue and net income growth, and superior profit margins compared to industry peers, driven by a scalable business model.
• Significant regulatory risks, particularly concerning its mainland China client base and the evolving cross-border financial services landscape, remain a key uncertainty and a primary concern for investors.

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• FUTU’s risk-reward is asymmetric:  Structurally low valuation, active consensus upgrades and a near-term catalyst (HK crypto VATP license), which can boost further upgrades (2026e) sets up a compelling long entry.
• HK-VATP enables FUTU to expand its crypto related revenues, product offerings and margins, and remove third-party dependency. With crypto <2% assets, this new earnings leg is entirely absent from consensus.
• FUTU’s pullback to ~15.6x FY2 P/E puts it at the bottom of a ~15x-25x – reasonable valuation band. With upgrades and catalysts ahead, it stands as a strong rerating candidate.

Molten Ventures posted a solid 7.9% NAV per share total return in H126, supported by a c 6% constant currency increase in gross portfolio value (driven by operational performance and in some cases improving market multiples) and a c 2% NAV accretion from buybacks. Standout return drivers were two spacetech businesses (ICEYE and Isar Aerospace), fintech Revolut, digital asset custody business Ledger and AI-powered, cloud-based phone platform Aircall. Molten maintains a good realisation pace, with £62m in proceeds in H126, representing 4.5% of opening gross portfolio value (broadly in line with its through-the-cycle target of 10% per year). Management highlighted improving visibility on further realisations. Molten’s shares currently trade at a 36% discount to NAV.

• The end-to-end solutions provider for branded merchandise reports interims to September.
• Revenue improved 18% to $21.6m with an 8% increase in operating profit to $1.6m while net debt increased 188% to $2.3m.
• The uplift in net debt reflects the working capital investment required to bring new Gear Shop sites into operation, including the increase in total inventory held across the expanded store base.