In today’s briefing:
- ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is
- SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret
- Nikkei225 and Election: Hedging Activity and Implieds Flag Opportunity
- Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Outlook: Any Rally From Here May End Quickly
- BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No
- ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- FP Partner (7388 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is
- Back on the 7th May, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, made a US$25.66/ADS non-binding proposal for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
- Yesterday, Geely tweaked and firmed terms at US$26.87/ADS, a 4.7% bump to the original NBIO, and ~3.4% below ZEEKR’s last close. ZEEKR promptly gained 2.4% on the news.
- ZEEKR shareholders also have the option to receive Geely scrip. Given Geely’s and Li Shufu’s (10.61%) holdings – neither are required to abstain on voting – this Offer is done.
SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret
- State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) plans to raise around US$3bn via a QIP. The deal is very well flagged and we wrote on it last week.
- Although the stock has been running up a bit going into the deal and the previous deal didn’t do well.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Nikkei225 and Election: Hedging Activity and Implieds Flag Opportunity
- Upper House elections are drawing increased scrutiny due to heightened focus on fiscal finances.
- We examine how risk is being priced across Japanese markets and in particular in Nikkei225 options.
- Volatility risk appears asymmetric, and we outline ways to mitigate or potentially profit from it.
Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
- Late last month, shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring Capital (XPG TB), BEC World Public (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
- As discussed in Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buying Opportunity After Margin Call, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana had pledged his shares in all four companies, reportedly leading to margin calls.
- Yesterday, the SET released an updated list of securities pledged in margin accounts. Notably, pledged shares in KTC has fallen to 3.8% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Outlook: Any Rally From Here May End Quickly
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been rallying strongly since early January 2025, a rally we predicted back then. After 2 weeks down, the stock this week is rising.
- However, according to our model the current uptrend pattern does not lead to long-lasting rallies, but rather to new, short-term corrections.
- The time horizon for this rally is 1-2 weeks, when this trend pattern is encountered, so we could expect the stock to rally briefly and then pull back again.
BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No
- Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.
- BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.
- No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.
ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) (IPru AMC) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by a consortium of banks.
- IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
- The IPO is entirely an offer for sale by one of the promoters, Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited.
FP Partner (7388 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
- In 1H FY11/25, revenue was JPY16.4bn (-4.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY1.5bn (-45.0% YoY).
- Full-year forecasts revised downward: revenue JPY32.6bn, operating profit JPY2.1bn, net income JPY1.3bn, EPS JPY58.20.
- Dividend forecast remains unchanged at JPY94 per share, despite downward revision of full-year net income forecast.
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