Daily Brief Health Care: Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, Hutchmed China Ltd and more

Continued strong sales of Cresemba, Basilea Pharmaceutica’s lead antifungal asset, in the Asia-Pacific region and China, has triggered the receipt of a US$1.25m milestone payment from Pfizer (license partner). This comes on the heels of Basilea’s first sales-related milestone from distribution partner Knight Therapeutics in January for sales in Latin America. We believe these reflect sustained market traction for Cresemba, leading to in-market sales of US$445m in the 12 months ending September 2023 (+22% y-o-y) and c CHF30m in milestone payments in FY23. In December 2023, Cresemba was granted a paediatric label expansion in the US, extending its market exclusivity to September 2027 (EU decision expected Q124). Basilea is also developing a successor to Cresemba: fosmanogepix, a broad-spectrum antifungal therapy (Phase III trials to commence in mid-2024). We anticipate the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date (3 April 2024) for the company’s second asset, Zevtera, will be the next near-term catalyst, as the US represents a key market.

• HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.
• 2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.
• Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 – US$1,800 million is a good place to long.