In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising
- GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market
- A Tender Offer of JTC by Affirma Capital
- Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT IPO: Lags in Size but Priced at a Discount
- Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious
- Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick
- Sms Co Ltd (2175 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Full Report – GEECHS (7060 JP) – July 17, 2025
[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP)‘s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
- I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
- The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.
GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market
- I have harped on the fact that GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) has to sell GMO Internet (4784 JP) shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.
- I have written about it here, here, here, and here. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.
- It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.
A Tender Offer of JTC by Affirma Capital
- On 28 July, it was announced that Affirma Capital will conduct a tender offer of JTC Inc/Fukuoka (950170 KS) which is a Japanese duty free operator listed on KOSDAQ.
- This follows the exercise of a call option on all shares held by former JTC Chairman Gu Cheol-mo.
- Despite some recent concerns about travelling to Japan due to Manga driven fears about earthquakes, there are some clear longer term signs that the global travelers visiting Japan are increasing.
Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT IPO: Lags in Size but Priced at a Discount
- Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP) is looking to raise up to US$192m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
- It is a REIT with hotel assets sponsored by affiliated developer, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP).
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious
- 2Q is inline, revenue and margins look like a beat but that’s weaker JPY and higher utilization as the firm is increasing inventory, expecting a better 2H25.
- 3Q guide is flat QoQ, the YoY recovery continues (2Q -9%, 3Q -4%). For 4Q, management expects a “modest” flattish or slight increase QoQ, which implies at least +13% YoY
- The stock is cheap, but “overall demand for automotive, we still have no clue as to how that will unfold” and short-term, Auto growth depends on China
Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick
- We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
- Our top-rated pick is Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP), with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates
- We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction
Sms Co Ltd (2175 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Sales increased by 7.2% YoY to JPY18.7bn, with operating profit up 20.5% YoY to JPY3.6bn.
- Kaipoke platform service sales grew 14.1% YoY, driven by increased member locations and expanded optional services usage.
- Global Career business sales fell 10.4% YoY, impacted by high prior-year comparison and geopolitical instability.
Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Net operating revenue increased to JPY10.7bn (+13.4% YoY; +21.6% QoQ), with operating profit at JPY4.7bn (+10.2% YoY; +47.7% QoQ).
- Total commissions rose to JPY5.2bn (+0.5% YoY; +9.9% QoQ), with brokerage commissions at JPY5.0bn (+1.1% YoY; +10.9% QoQ).
- SG&A expenses increased to JPY6.0bn (+16.0% YoY; +7.0% QoQ), with personnel expenses up 25.7% YoY and 25.3% QoQ.
Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue increased 15.9% YoY to JPY2.9bn, driven by growth in rent guarantee services, despite Solution business decline.
- Operating profit rose 22.0% YoY to JPY660mn, with an OPM increase of 1.1pp YoY to 22.9%.
- Total contracts in force reached 482,000, with Guarantee business contracts up 19.9% YoY, Solution business contracts down 23.8% YoY.
Full Report – GEECHS (7060 JP) – July 17, 2025
- GEECHS Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) ’s core business is the IT Human Resources Matching Business, Japan (hereafter, “Japan IT HRM Biz”), that matches companies that want to outsource work to outside workers with IT freelancers who want to do that work, and the Company receives a matching fee.
- By leveraging the expertise of experienced professional career advisors, highly precise coordination using visualization tools, and next-generation talent development through Seed Tech, the Company provides end-to-end support for client DX and AI projects.
The Company completed its acquisition of Alive Inc. and streamlined its business portfolio, transforming itself into a company focused exclusively on the IT human resources business starting in FY2026/3.
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