In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Offering Price Decided; Buyback & Passive Flow Coming Up
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): JPY1,131 Offer Price; Updated Playbook
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO – It Was All Good, till Friday
- Fuji Oil: Probably The Last Chance For Itochu to Scoop Up Fuji Oil at a Bargain
- What’s Solution for TSE Growth Market, Where IPOs Became the Goal and Lost Growth Due to Burnout?
- Monotaro (3064) | Pricing in Downside Risks
- Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Positives – Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Offering Price Decided; Buyback & Passive Flow Coming Up
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced that the offering price has been set at JPY 1131/share, a 2.08% discount to the closing price. Settlement is on 20 March.
- The buyback will run from 22 March to 12 May and at last prices will mop up 1.85% of shares outstanding or 4.62% of post-offering float.
- In the short-term, we expect buying from Topix (TPX INDEX), MSCI and other global trackers to support the stock price.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): JPY1,131 Offer Price; Updated Playbook
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) priced its offer at JPY1,131, a discount of 2.1% to the last close. JPB’s on-market buyback period runs from 22 March to 12 May.
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering suggests that the share price will have support to trade above the offer price at delivery date and the on-market buyback period.
- The offer price’s forward P/B of 0.45x and yield of 4.42% are attractive vs peers. JPB’s price ratio at the offer price is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.
SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO – It Was All Good, till Friday
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) is looking to raise around US$390m in its second listing attempt.
- SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
- In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range
Fuji Oil: Probably The Last Chance For Itochu to Scoop Up Fuji Oil at a Bargain
- Having conducted several acquisitions and reinvested most of the operating cashflows into building its overseas business base, Fuji Oil Holdings (2607 JP) seems ready to unleash its earnings potential.
- There could be more than a 100% upside to Fuji Oil shares if ROE returns to the historical median of 9% in the next few years.
- Therefore, if Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has plans to takeover Fuji-Oil, the current price and the position in the business-cycle present the best opportunity to buy-out Fuji-Oil at a bargain.
What’s Solution for TSE Growth Market, Where IPOs Became the Goal and Lost Growth Due to Burnout?
- Few companies have generally achieved significant growth since listing, and about half of the companies are below their market capitalization at the IPO, which is challenges in TSE Growth Market.
- Even if the number of companies subject to such shares is limited, the use of multiple voting shares shouldn’t be ruled out if the dilution of voting rights hinders fundraising.
- The key to solving the challenges of TSE Growth Market, where few companies have growth potential and have financing needs, is the ability of management to realize growth potential post-listing.
Monotaro (3064) | Pricing in Downside Risks
- We reassess our long-term financial model for Monotaro following 2 consecutive months of weak monthly data
- Just two months into the new fiscal year, but YTD sales growth of 13% is far short of the full year target
- Our DCF valuation highlights further 21% downside assuming 10y CAGR of 10.5%
Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – The Positives – Steady past Performance with an Expanding Footprint
- Trial Holdings (5882 JP)‘s is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
- TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
- In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
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