Daily Brief Japan: Nidec Corp, Ibiden Co Ltd, Kasumigaseki Capital, Ashimori Industry, Nikkei 225, JPY, Kosaido, Nintendo and more

• The JPX has designated Nidec Corp (6594 JP) as a ‘Security on Special Alert’ due to a disclaimer of opinion in the annual report (among other issues).
• Nikkei has announced the deletion of Nidec Corp (6594 JP) from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) will be added to the index.
• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) should also be deleted from the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX). Both index deletions should take the stock a lot lower from here.

• In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
• In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
• This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 

• On Friday, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Aug-25 earnings and a combination ¥45-50bn primary+secondary offering worth 5.3mm shares, 6x ADV, and a float increase of 37%. Shares fell 15% today.
• 2yrs ago they did a large offering. It went well. They’d had a ridiculous plan to grow OP 6x from ¥3.5bn to ¥20bn in 2yrs to Aug-26. Then by Aug-25. 
• They got to ¥8.5bn in Aug-24 and now ¥18.9bn in Aug-25 and now guide to ¥26.5bn in Aug-26 (the original plan having been ¥20bn). 

• In August, Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) announced a deal for Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at 1.000x book value after writedowns. That was not a coincidence.
• The takeover is cheap for what it is. No synergies were counted. But it wasn’t truly offensive. MURAKAMI Takateru aimed an activist broadside, bought 19.73% across four entities. Then stopped. 
• The Bidder lowered the Tender Offer Minimum from 2.3081mm shares (38.29%) to 1.8001mm shares (29.86%). Shares dropped. As of 24-Sep, 2,111,226 shares had been tendered. This looks done. Maybe. 

• As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
• The date  of replacement is November 5, the Nikkei will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.
• At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.

• Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP), is looking to raise US$250m in a primary placement.
• The purpose is for financing of its medium-term management plan phase 2 which includes strengthening KC’s domestic hotel, logistics and healthcare businesses, and for expansions abroad (Dubai, US).
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Japanese markets are seeing significant developments, including Nikkei 225 rebalancing with Nidec’s removal due to alert and Ibiden’s addition, impacting tracking funds, delta one trading strategies, and investors with position.
• The BoJ’s cautious normalization path continues to shape the JGB curve, with a notable steepening in the long end affecting asset-liability management.
• We detail the trades and execution of the trade idea, which may require special attention this week especially on the rebalance.

• FX and gold oil ratio have decoupled this year, leading to low volatility and focus on US data, exogenous shocks, and geopolitics in FX trading.
• Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi delivered a speech on economic policy, focusing on fiscal measures and debt reduction, without mentioning monetary or FX policy.
• Despite interventionist stance of Takaichi and Finance Minister Katayama, it is unlikely they will strongly intervene in BOJ policy, with expectations of a rate hike next week due to economic and market developments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Kosaido is undergoing a significant business transformation, shifting its focus from the mature printing industry to high-growth areas, particularly the funeral services and asset consulting businesses. This strategic pivot is driven by Japan’s aging population, which presents a substantial market opportunity for end-of-life services.
• The Funeral Services segment, operated through its subsidiary Tokyo Hakuzen, is the primary growth engine. Holding a dominant market share of cremations in Tokyo’s 23 wards, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing mortality rate. Expansion of funeral hall capacity is a key pillar of their growth strategy.
• While the legacy Information (printing) and Human Resources segments face challenges, management is focused on cost optimization and a return to profitability. The nascent Asset Consulting business, which provides inheritance-related services, is a promising high-margin venture that leverages synergies with the funeral business.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Nintendo is poised to enter a new growth cycle driven by the highly anticipated launch of its next-generation console, the ‘Switch 2’, which is expected to capitalize on the success of its predecessor.
• The company’s key enduring advantage is its portfolio of wholly-owned, iconic intellectual property (IP) such as Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon, which fosters exceptional brand loyalty and drives both software and hardware sales.
• While the outlook is positive, Nintendo faces significant risks from intense competition, the inherent cyclicality of the console market, and execution risk associated with the new hardware launch and sustained software pipeline.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.